This is number three in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole salad. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
This time, we turn to our nominee for President’s home state: ILLINOIS.
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
For the political makeup of Illinois, imagine a radar screen centered in Chicago and pinging out four concentric rings. The innermost ring, Cook County, is rock-solid Democratic territory. The second ring includes the suburban "collar counties" of Lake, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, DuPage, Kendall and Will, and is one of the more exciting regions in transition from red to blue in the nation. Bill Foster’s and Melissa Bean’s breakthrough elections to Congress in recent elections are evidence of growing Democratic strength here, as are our excellent opportunities to flip the 10th and 11th districts this November. On the other hand, the 6th district stayed GOP when it was an open contest in 2006.
The next ring out is the Illinois farmbelt, the most Republican area still existing in Illinois. Islands of blue, like Bloomington and the Champaign/Urbana area exist, but a lot of rural counties still vote Republican. Finally, the outermost ring is to the west, on the Mississippi river where it becomes more Democratic again Not as solid blue as Chicago, but enough to counterbalance the reddish inner state.
PRESIDENT: Obama’s home state. He carries it without breaking a sweat. 21 safe EVs.
US SENATE: With the exception of Pryor (D-AR), who has no opponent, Democrat Richard Durbin is the safest Senator of either party.
OTHER STATEWIDE: None in 2008.
STATE LEGISLATURE: Solid Democrat (Don’t you love this state?) The Senate is 37-22 Democrat and the lower House 67-51 Democrat, and having Obama and Durbin at the top of the ticket isn’t going to do anything but widen our margins.
CONGRESSIONAL SEATS: Since the other races are uncompetitive or nonexistent (all favoring Democrats), House races are the contests to watch in Illinois. The six most important are two held by new Democrats, and four held by Republicans.
District 1-Bobby Rush (D)==Safe Democrat.
District 2-Jesse Jackson, Jr (D)==Safe Democrat
District 3-Dan Lipinski (D)==Safe Democrat. Lipinski is a blue dog who survived a primary challenge from a better progressive earlier in the year. Shrugged it off kinda easily, to tell the truth. But he is a Democrat, and he’s a shoo-in over the Gooper, and we have other fish to fry, so ignore this one until the next chance to primary him. We didn’t beat Al Wynn the first time around, either.
District 4-Luis Guttierez (D)==Unopposed Democrat. Free ride!
District 5-Rahm Emanuel (D)==Safe Democrat.
District 6-Jill Morgenthaler (D) v. Incumbent R Peter Roskam. This is the one where Tammy Duckworth narrowly failed to capture the open seat last time around. It’s still competitive this time around, but less so due to Roskam’s incumbency and Morgenthaler not closing the money gap. You can help her close the gap and keep the race on the map:
http://www.jillmorgenthaler.com/
If Roskam holds on for another term, we’ll probably have to wait for the next redistricting to take him out.
District 7-Danny Davis (D)==Safe Democrat.
District 8-Melissa Bean (D) == Might be vulnerable. This district is too conservative to take for granted, and is on the short list of GOP opportunities. But Bean has held on in two close elections, this is a Democratic year, and her opponent this time around is not as rough as her previous opponent. Plus, the Republicans have too many other seats clamoring for attention, including in Illinois alone, to be able to really press this one. http://www.house.gov/...
District 9-Jan Schakowski (D)==Safe Democrat.
District 10-Dan Seals (D) v. Mark Kirk (Inc. R). This is the big nailbiter in Illinois. A bluing collar county district in the far northeast corner of the state where Seals came close last time despite being ignored by the DCCC. His performance got attention, and this time he is not being ignored. You shouldn’t ignore him either. If I was to pick one Illinois election to focus on, this would be the one.
http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/
District 11-OPEN—Debbie Halvorson (D) v. unnamed stinking Republican. Likely Democrat. I picked the 10th as more worthy than this one because the 11th is close to being a gimme without our help. The Republican who won the primary dropped out, and Halvorson is a rock star. I hear Alan Keyes is available to oppose her...
But let’s not take it for granted until we’ve won. Donate here: http://www.debbiehalvorson.com/
District 12—Jerry Costello (D)==Safe Democrat.
District 13-Scott Harper (D) v. Judy Boggart (Inc. R). I would have considered this the least competitive Illinois district held by Republicans this cycle; however, Scott Harper has really done his job in the fundraising department, and apparently the DCCC is responding by putting this one on the map, thereby making the ENTIRE collar counties region (that’s roughly districts 11, 13, 14, 6, 8, and 10, running clockwise from Lake Michigan) competitive, all at once, this cycle
http://www.scottharperforcongress.com/
District 14-Bill Foster (D)==Leans Dem. This is the one where Foster beat wingnut Repugnican Oberweiss in a special election this year. In November, it’s Foster v. Oberweiss again, and I expect the Repugs will hang this one out to dry in order to fight in the 8th, 10th, 18th, and elsewhere. Oberweiss is so bad even other Republicans hate him. But let’s be sure and have Foster’s back, in case.
http://foster.house.gov/
District 15—Steve Cox (D) v. Tim Johnson (Inc. R) It bothers me to no end that the solid blue Champaign/Urbana area south of Chicago is still represented by a Republican. We have a base here and should make this one competitive every cycle. It seems that, this time at least, Illinois Democrats are focusing on other races. Cox is way underfunded here and could use some help.
http://www.stevecoxforcongress.com/...
District 16-Robert Abboud (D) v. Don Manzullo (Inc R)—The 16th has Democratic strength in the blue collar Rockford area and points west, but is outvoted by conservative counties in the east. This race is on the national radar—barely—due mainly to Abboud’s serious campaigning and fundraising in what was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb role. Keep an eye on this one.
http://www.robertabboud.com/
District 17-Phil Hare (D)—Unopposed Democrat. For some reason, the Democrats gerrymandered this district into being ridiculously Democrat-heavy, when they could have put some Democrats into the 16th and made it more competitive. Anyhow, it’s our freebie.
District 18—OPEN--Colleen Callahan (D) v. Aaron Shock (R). The GOP is touting Shock as some kind of evil young Wunderkind who is going to rock boats all over America and redden the whole state. All I see is a sophomoric little doofus with his foot in his mouth. In a just world, Callahan would kick his ass with one hand behind her back, but this is a district with an advantage to Republicans, and Callahan did get a late fundraising start, having jumped in when our first pick dropped out. Dick Durbin used to hold most of this territory before becoming a Senator, so the race is winnable. But Callahan will need a few breaks.
http://www.colleencallahanforcongres...
District 19—Daniel Davis (D) v. John Shamekus (Inc. R)—Not to be confused with Rep. Danny Davis in the 7th, Daniel Davis is running on pure energy in a district definitely winnable by a Democrat. His motto is "Running with Giants". Not presently on the map, but you never know. Shamekus is an odious rat who deserves a strong challenge.
http://www.runwithgiants.com/...
REDISTRICTING ILLINOIS:
Illinois is likely to lose seats after the next census, so let’s make sure those seats are Republican. The Governorship is going to be open in 2010, and we’ll have to fight to keep it on our side. If we do that, the state can be redistricted in our favor with relative ease.
For starters, the region outside the collar counties will roughly encompass six districts, two of which are now Democratic. It is possible to redraw the map to create four Democratic districts, running counterclockwise, as follows:
- (The HARE District): Remove everything South of Hancock County on the IA/MO border. Instead, add the west half of the 16th District, along the Mississippi river north to Jo Daviess County, and extending east through only the parts of Stephenson and Winnebago Counties south of Highway 20, including all of Rockford and the blue parts of Freeport. Possibly also include the westernmost part of the 14th. It’ll be more compact than what we have now.
- (The COSTELLO District). Drop everything South of East St. Louis, and instead add the river towns to the north that were dropped from the 17th. Extend inland as necessary to fill out the district. East St. Louis will remain the overwhelming political force in the district.
- (The Replace Shamekus District): Add everything that was dropped from the Costello district, and extend a finger north into the blue neighborhoods of Springfield. Lose Republican farmland to the east. This district now contains Cairo, Carbondale, Centralia and the best of Springfield, and leans blue. Not also that we have divided the blue leaning Mississippi shore evenly among three districts instead of concentrating it in two.
- (The Replace Johnson District): Add Bloomington and the blue parts of Decatur to this district (which right now stops just short of their borders and appears to have been expressly designed to neuter Champaign by diluting its votes with nothing but rural surroundings), and lose the Republican farmland to the South, and you have a place where Democrats ought to win well. This district will also be more compact than in its current form. It must not touch the bye-bye Shamekus district to the Southwest.
The remaining two districts (roughly the Manzullo district shifted east and south to include the worst of the 8th and 14th, making Bean and Foster potentially safer, and one to the south combining the worst of the 18th, 15th and 19th) will look like squashed blintzes and be untouchably Republican. I can deal.
That leaves the Chicago/collar area which can’t really be addressed until we find out whether we can win and hold the 10th and 11th, at the northern and southern extremities of the metro area. Right now, we have seven solid blue districts, at least one solid GOP district, and five pink-to-purple districts, some of which could flip between now and then. At least one district will cease to exist come 2011. With enough wheel-and-spoke-gerrymandering, it is possible to completely destroy the GOP pocket where Boggart and Roskam have their districts, or to make one untouchable GOP district and a dozen solid Dem seats.
What do YOU think?