In addition to the Pennsylvania presidential primary which is (thankfully) taking place today, there are two other notable elections slated for Tuesday. One, as you may know, is the special election in Mississippi's 1st District, the former seat of now-Senator Roger Wicker.
The other is the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania's Erie-based 3rd District, currently represented by Republican Phil English. There's a four-way race for the Democratic nomination to face English, between city councilman Kyle Foust, businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper, attorney Tom Myers, and community activist Mike Waltner.
The winner of the nomination will have a legitimately competitive race on their hands against English, who received only 54% in 2006 against Democrat Steven Porter, now running as an indie. PA-03 is generally a competitive district; both Gore and Kerry pulled a respectable 47% in the district. So there is a chance that the winner of the Democratic nomination will wind up as the district's next Representative.
As the only one of the group who has previously held elected office, Foust was the early frontrunner for the nomination, but this is no longer necessarily the case. Foust's fundraising has trailed that of the other three candidates, and at this point, it's difficult to forecast what will happen tomorrow. CQ Politics has more:
None of the candidates has dominated the field in fundraising. Through April 2, Myers led with total receipts of $242,000, including loans and contributions from his personal accounts of $56,000. Dahlkemper was the last Democrat to enter the race, though her $212,000 in total receipts — a sum that included a $60,000 loan she made to her own campaign — has kept her competitive with Myers. Waltner reported raising $156,000. Foust, despite his status as the only elected official in the race, lagged behind the field in fundraising, with $116,000 in receipts. None of the candidates has raised much from political action committees (PACs).
Ludwig said that the Foust campaign’s polling has it as a two-candidate race, between Foust and Dahlkemper, with nearly one-fourth of the electorate undecided. Myers’ criticism of Dahlkemper at last week’s debate also suggests that she’s a competitive candidate.
Even if public polling was plentiful in this race, handicapping it would be very difficult because no one really knows what the voter turnout will be — other than that it will be substantial. It’s unclear how many 3rd District Democrats who vote for president also will make a choice in the 3rd District primary.
Whoever does emerge from the nomination, again, should have a fairly decent chance against English in the general election.
In Mississippi, meanwhile, Democrat Travis Childers has an uphill battle-but a winnable one-to take today's special election against Republican Greg Davis. Childers has been competitive in polling, and both CQ and the Cook Political Report rate this race as "Leans Republican".
Childers has recently earned the endorsement of the Northeastern Mississippi Daily Journal, the largest newspaper in the district, and of the Columbus Dispatch (hat tip to Cotton Mouth Blog).
With two other candidates on the ballot, independent Wally Pang and Green Party candidate John Wages, it's possible that neither Childers nor Davis will garner 50% of the vote in the special election, which would necessitate a runoff election on May 13. The district is extremely Republican-R+10-but it is competitive enough that both the DCCC and the NRCC have invested quite heavily in the district in the district, with the Republicans in for nearly $300,000 so far.
A Democratic victory here would still be quite an upset, but it's within the realm of possibility. We'll be watching this one closely.