RCP has this race at 6.1% for HRC. On the day of OH primary they had OH at 7.1%.
The "four pollsters" that are considered most reliable are Ras, SUSA, PPP and Quin. In OH these "four good pollsters" had Hillary up in their last polls up by 8.25% (very close to actual 10%) and they all showed in their last polls HRC picking up steam in OH.
However, now in PA they have her only up 49% - 45.25% or 3.75% and it's actually Obama picking up steam somewhat.
So two very important differences between OH and PA (no one is mentioning)that go in Obama's favor are:
- National mood/polls/preferences on the day of election.
A) On March 5th (March 1-4 rolling average on Rasmussen) HRC was up on Obama by 5%. 48% - 43%. Now he is up today by 8% 49%-41%, a 13% swing in a national poll.
B) On March 4th HRC was up in Gallup over Obama 48% - 44% with Obama on the decline at that time. Now he is up 7% (yesterday, as today's results are not up yet, but he is on the rise) and this is an 11% swing.
Today icluding new Rasmussen he is for the first time at 50% nationally and she is at 40% for the first time. A new all time high for him and a new low for her. Hillary never hit 50%. Her high was 48.5% in early October last year.
My point is that national mood might play a role with undecided voters.
- African American turnout.
In OH it was 18% per exit polls. In 2004 AA were 17.26% of Kerry vote in OH, and they were a 10% of total OH vote. They are 12%+ of population in OH so they undervoted.
In PA they are 10.7% of population but they were 13% of all votes in PA in 2004 and like in OH they went 84% - 16% Kerry. They amounted to 21.43% of Kerry vote. in PA 2004 non AA population voted 40.4% (voting and non voting age) while for AA in 2004 that number was a very high 56%. Does this say that AA in PA vote in numbers? If that is true and Obama is able to get the same number in percentages out then one might expect that AA vote will be 21-22% in PA. In OH all pollsters underpolled AA. Now we have PPP showing a high of 18% and SUSA a low of 14% and that in large part explains the PPP Obama +3% in PA and Clinton up +6% in SUSA. However if AA do what they did in 2004 and turn out then all betts are off. If they can turn out for a white guy from Mass. why would they not turn out for a brother from Chicago south side.
What do you think?