Miscellaneous Thoughts on PA
From posts I made a few days ago:
I predict Clinton with a 56-44 win of the PA popular vote.
Turnout will be key. A lot of new voters have registered, and they MIGHT have more of an impact than the polls are identifying. But in any event, I don't see Barack getting more than 45% of the vote.
I think the undecided vote will go big to Clinton, by a measure of 3-1, if not more. Just a hunch, I can't back it up with empirical data. My feeling is, PA is demographically favorable to Clinton, and so the undecideds will "come home" to HRC.
I think it will be great if Obama can keep the spread under 10 points. Remember, some polls said she was ahead by 20 before they started campaigning there.
Some thoughts:
• Bottom line, the final PA results were not a surprise to me. I think the mistake a lot of people made is, they didn't factor in the undecideds correctly. As we watch polls going forward, we need to take a hard look at the undecided vote. I think it was predictable that the undecideds would break for HRC, but I feel that many BHO supporters especially didn't take that into consideration.
• Don't think for a minute that the money didn't help! There's a saying that, it's not where you are, but how far you've come. At the start of the PA campaigns, Clinton was said to have a 20% lead. Obama cut that in half, despite the Wright and "bitter" controversies.
• Demographically, PA is as good as it gets for Clinton. The state has the highest % of persons over 65, at 15.2% (per the 2008 Statistical Abstract). Independants could not cross-over and vote as Democrats. The state has a big rural and blue collar base that has been pro-Clinton. And Clinton got major machine support from the PA Gov and the mayor of Philly. Meanwhile, the controversies over Wright and the "bitter" comments are getting stale; they're just not big issues.
Bottom line is, Clinton does not have the kind of edge in IN that she had in PA. IN will be more of a "fair fight." We'll see how the two candidates do in what must be considered a "toss-up" state.
• If I were to give Obama advice, it would be stress economic/pocketbok issues more. Since I didn't see all the PA ads or hear all the PA speeches, I don't know what the overall emphasis was. But right now, it IS the economy. I think it's fair to say, Obama's "brand" is more about change and anti-Iraq, than it is about fixing the economy.
The thing is, since the start of his campaign, the economy has tanked. My own feeling is, the theme of change does not resonate as much in an environment where economic concerns are paramount.
Barack needs to morph from being the "change" or "anti-Iraq" candidate to the "fix the economy" candidate. When polling is done, he needs to be at the top in "best candidate to address economic issues." I don't think he's there yet.