This is number four in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole herd of cattle. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
This is Texas, Part Two, featuring the last 22 Congressional Districts and a few other odds and ends.
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Here again are links to Burnt Orange and Texas Kaos, the two prominent All-Texas blogs featured as part of the 50-state blog project.
http://www.burntorangereport.com/
http://www.texaskaos.com/
Within minutes of posting "Texas, Part 1" yesterday, boadicea of Texas Kaos was commenting and emailing me with some information about online Texas resources, and a few details I had left out.
For example, there is a statewide race for Texas Supreme Court Justice (Judges as a partisan office? That’s a new, disturbing concept to me), and the Democrat is Linda Yanez.
http://www.lindayanez.com/...
Also, the all-powerful TXsharon weighed in with the information that the Texas Railroad Commissioner, whose race I kinda pooh-poohed the first time around, really is a force to be reckoned with, bigger than the Governor (apparently, most political offices in Texas are bigger than the Governor), with the power to say yes or no to oil and gas lobbyists, regulate hazardous waste, and to exercise eminent domain. And yes, the Republican has been abusing eminent domain, foreclosing on widows and orphans, etc., so here’s a link to Mark Thompson, the Democrat running for RR Commish:
http://www.markfortexas.com/
One reason I’m doing this series is to learn more about states I don’t know about and to share opportunities for taking territory from the enemy. Texas can be a baffling and dangerous world to outsiders, but can you really not say the same about California? New York City? Here on Kos, we have an amazing contingent of dedicated progressives, living right in the belly of the beast, some of them in places where they shoot Democrats, or at least that’s how it seems. I’m impressed with their energy and commitment, and I hope people will consider them before making comments about ignoring Texas, or the South, or anywhere else that’s been frustrating us by inflicting Republican politicians on America.
District 11 (West Texas)—Unopposed Republican. One of only two in the nation (the other is AL-6) where we have not run ANY Democrat at all two cycles running. Shame, and let’s get some Democrats out here!
District 12 (Fort Worth)—Tracey Smith (D) v. Kay Granger (Inc. R). A low profile race, but a very deserving one. Here’s a rant from TXsharon about the "filthy and condescending" Granger, and a link to Tracey in case the rant inspires you to help replace the incumbent.
http://txsharon.blogspot.com/...
http://www.traceysmithgoestowashingt...
District 13 (Panhandle)—Roger Waun (D) v. Hubert "Mac" Thornberry (Inc. R). Yeah. There’s just about enough panhandle to make one farm district that could probably swing either way. However, the fiendish Republican gerrymander put a big chunk of the panhandle into the 19th, and stuck a couple of tails on instead that go deeply east and south. It’s an uphill climb, but if Waun does well here, it could inspire Democrats to run in greater numbers in the area. Some of the neighboring districts have no challengers at all.
http://www.rogerwaun.com/
District 14 (coast South of Houston)—Ron Paul’s district. Unopposed Republican. Interesting that he’s getting a bye, since some of the biggest nailbiters (TX 7, 10, 22) and safe incumbents (TX 15, 25, 27, 29) are from around here.
District 15 (South Texas)—Ruben Hinojosa (D Inc.)—Safe Democrat. One silver lining of the gerrymander is that those districts that are Democratic are concentrated to the point of absolute safety.
District 16 (El Paso)—Silvestre Reyes (D Inc.)—Unopposed Democrat
District 17 (another N-S strip between Dallas and Houston)-Chet Edwards (Inc. D). All right, some of the Democratic districts are not blue at all. This glaring exception was drawn with the intent of forcing Edwards out. If it was made too red for a Democrat to win, however, I guess Edwards just never got the memo, because he won it in 2004, and then won it again in 2006. Republicans may have dampened their enthusiasm about this seat and concentrated on more promising targets, like the seats we picked up in 2006. Still, it’s the MOST GOP-leaning seat in Congress presently held by a Democrat, and we don’t get to just take it for granted.
http://edwards.house.gov/
District 18 (Houston)-Sheila Jackson Lee (D). Unopposed Democrat.
District 19 (West Texas)—Dwight Fullingim (D) v. Randolph Neuberger (Inc. R)
Seems to me, the far western territory making up the 19th, 11th and 21st districts is maybe the roughest territory for Democrats in all of America. I like Fullingim because he is daring to run and give the voters a choice, the only Democrat in those three districts to do so. I hope the state party and the DCCC make him feel appreciated for this, and that you will, too. He needs a lightning strike to win, but he can keep Neuberger pinned down in the district and unable to help other Republicans. He can also shrink Neuberger’s margin to less than it was last year...and next time, less than that again. Eventually this district will be competitive, and then actually won. Neuberger got his nose under the tent in the first place because the GOP ripped what had been a safe seat for veteran Democrat Charles Stenholm, just so they could get one more Republican in. Right about now, maybe they’re wishing they hadn’t done that, as Stenholm would now be a committtee chairman, getting things done for Texas, while what they have now is a two-term junior loser.
http://www.dwight4congress.com/
District 20 (San Antonio)—Charlie Gonzalez (D). Unopposed Democrat.
District 21 (West Texas)—Unopposed Republican. Grrr...
District 22 (Houston)—Nick Lampson (Inc. D) v. Peter Olson (R). This is the district that Tom Delay made to be a safe district for himself, and which is now held by a Democrat. The Broder pundits, of course, are comparing this district to the solid blue one formerly held by the powerful Dan Rostenkowski in Illinois, who lost in 1994 to a no-name Republican when his corruption finally stank too much for even a partisan district to stomach...and then it flipped back to the Democrats after one term. Will the 22nd be like that, or will we hold on?
The good news is that Nick Lampson is not a no-name Democrat. He was already a well-liked Congressman before DeLay scribbled his district away, making it all the more just that Lampson be the one to take DeLay’s district away. Seems to me he is the strongest possible Democrat to hold this particular seat.
http://lampson.house.gov/
District 23 (Southwest Texas)—Ciro Rodriguez (Inc. D) v. Lyle Larson (R)
This district, the other one in Texas that we won in 2006 is, in my opinion, in more danger of flipping than the 22d, in part because no one but me seems to think so.
Did you know Texas has no state income tax, and that a whole lot of military veterans stationed overseas are encouraged to establish residency (usually at the address of a military base) for the purpose of avoiding taxes (Motto: "Don’t Mess With Taxes!")? Why should we care about this politically? The thing is, a lot of these "phantom citizens" register Republican for reasons best explained by the military, and they have the effect of lopsidedly effecting elections in the areas around the bases, which are sometimes otherwise sparsely populated. I’ve heard of one heavily, heavily latino county with a military base in it, in which, lo and behold, they elected a white, racist Republican county commissioner who was hated by a solid majority of the district. It happened because hundreds of phantom citizens serving overseas registered and voted the straight Republican ticket without knowing anything about the local candidates because, really, they didn’t live there. The only reason they register to vote there is so that they don’t have to pay income tax.
Consider this in relation to the 23rd. The military bases where these phantom citizens register are here. In the 1980s, this territory was held by Lamar Smith, before they even had Republicans in Texas. In 1992, they redistricted it into veteran Democrat Albert Bustamante’s district, and he was immediately defeated by a Republican. A lot of people put it down to the House Bank scandal, but that scandal shamed over a hundred house members, and many of them survived, and Bustamante was hardly one of the worse offenders there. I say it was the phantom citizen vote.
I also say the phantom citizens may have not bothered to vote in the runoff election of 2006, but they certainly will vote in November 2008, with a Presidential race at the top of the ticket. And they’re not showing up in any polls, because they don’t live in the district.
I say be very, very careful, and count on the Republican turnout to be as much as 10% higher than any research says it will be. We can still win, but we must make sure we get massive, massive turnout for Ciro Rodriguez. And you heard it from me first.
http://www.rodriguez.house.gov/
District 24 (Dallas)—Tom Love (D) v. Kenneth Marchant (Inc. R). This one is not on anybody’s radar. Love has almost no cash on hand, and Marchant is pretty much going through the motions.
http://www.tomlovefortexas.com/
District 25 (Austin and a lot of Austin-Houston suburbs)—Lloyd Dogget (Inc. D) The Delay gestapo threw a lot of rural territory into this one, hoping to make things hard on one of our great Democrats; but Lloyd Doggett survived and continues to be safe here.
District 26 (Between Dallas and Ft. Worth)—Ken Leach (D) v. Michael Burgess (Inc. R) Could be a sleeper. Burgess has raised almost no money, and his re-election margins have shrunk every year since he was elected. Granted, that means he went from 75% in 2002 to 60% in 2006, but that’s what the 50-state strategy is all about. Shrink those victory margins until you can drown them in the bathtub.
http://leachforcongress.com/
Check out the Who’s Playin’ blog for more information: http://www.whosplayin.com/...
District 27 (South Texas, on the Gulf Coast)—Solomon Ortiz (D). Safe Democrat
District 28 (South Texas)—Henry Cuellar (D). Safe Democrat.
District 29 (Houston)—Gene Green (D).Safe Democrat.
District 30 (Dallas)—Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) Safe Democrat. Also, home to TXsharon.
District 31 (The last of the strips between Houston and Dallas)—Brian Ruiz (D) v. Jonathan Carter (Inc. R). Another district where nonresident military people register to vote to avoid taxes, distinguished from the 23rd in that the Republicans win here by high margins anyhow.
http://ruizforcongress.com/...
This district includes Williamson County, and so the Eye on Williamson blog is, as expected, paying particular attention to it.
http://eyeonwilliamson.org/
District 32 (Dallas)—Eric Roberson (D) v. Peter Sessions (Inc. R). The district the DeLay goons stole from Martin Frost. Not currently on the radar.
http://www.ericroberson.org/
As I said in Part One, the most important thing Texas Democrats can do is to take the lower house of the State Legislature and prevent Republicans from running the table during the next redistricting. That may be the only way to get districts like the 32d and the 24th competitive, and to prevent them from screwing up the new districts that will come in 2012.
The best things that nonTexans can do is to contribute to candidates, stop talking trash about Texas (unless you live in California, it's bigger than your state), and to elect more and more Democrats in your state's district. Texans want power in a big way, and if it looks like Democrats have a long term insurmountable House majority nationwide, even the conservative Texas districts will think about electing someone to represent them from the majority party, where they can better deliver for the home folks and get things done, head committees, and all that good ol' boy stuff.