The Obama campaign is making a mistake, so I have some advice: Don't do nine out of ten things right, and then do one thing wrong. It can cost you a race that is already won!
I learned how to lose a state legislative race that looked like a sure thing in 1994. The seat was open, and had been in Democratic hands for 40 years. I had been previously the local party chair, and had been a key organizer for two Presidential candidates. I had run the campaigns of the previous state representative for ten years before running myself.
How I lost a campaign in ten easy steps below the fold....
- I made a promise to run only a positive campaign. No attack ads, no personal attacks in speeches or conversations - just the facts and the issues. I promised to work across party lines to "get things done" with the Republican Governor and with local business groups. I made the front page of the paper when I announced.
- I put together a campaign committee of the best and most visible people in the local Democratic Party, with the highly respected party chair as my campaign manager.
- I promised to work to improve the plight of small, homegrown businesses in Iowa; improve education, especially in the area of technology; and to fully fund the most important environmental program in the state (which in fact has been a model for many other states.
- I knocked on more doors than my opponent.
- I raised more money. I held fundraisers targeted to each major constituent group I needed to win, and tailored talks for each group.
- I neutralized Republican PACs by meeting with them and promising to listen to them, even if I were philosophically opposed to their positions. A lot of them sent me money.
- I ran a great media campaign. (I run an advertising and political consulting company in my spare time). I was endorsed by a big bunch of well known Democratic politicians and the biggest and most important unions.
- I worked every public event in the district for over a year. I had a great volunteer list, and I was plugged into the best statewide campaign apparatus in the country.
- My opponent leafleted a homecoming football game with the charge that I lacked family values because I had positively reviewed the film "Natural Born Killers," which the flyer associated with Quentin Tarantino (who had sued to have his name removed from the film), who directed another film, "Reservoir Dogs," that had a scene of a cop having his ear sliced off while tied to a chair. This proved I lacked "an understanding of the district." I was soft on tying up and maiming cops, and I was so far out of the mainstream that I didn't represent the god-fearing families of the district. To this day, I have not seen Reservoir Dogs. My father at the time was a highly respected UCC pastor in town.
Suffice it to say that the charges were "The Big Lie." I considered a response ad, and decided with my advisors not to do it. Instead I sent a targeted mailer to handpicked community leaders reminding them of my many ties to the community.
- I kept my promises. I didn't adjust to the new reality of my campaign. I lost most of my lead in the informal polls of the race. I followed my campaign budget plan, and saturated media for the last week - I thought....
Then:
I lost.
My opponent (a 24 year old who had never held a full-time job, and who later ran Pat Buchanan's campaign in the district) got a last minute contribution from the state party to throw up a blizzard of 30 second radio ads that played about every 10 minutes for the last three days of the campaign. They said, "vote for family values."
The lesson I learned was two-fold.
First, save resources for the end of the campaign, and that doesn't mean money, but publicity-worthy events and endorsements.
Second, respond forcefully with the truth when lies are told. Never assume a problem for the campaign has been neutralized, and hammer at the solution along with the issues stuff.
The problem with the current Obama strategy is excessive caution. He has now let the Clinton campaign define him and what the race is about. They have convinced the traditional media that white working class voters are against him, when it's really just Appalachian white voters. They have convinced a lot of people that Barack can't win because of his "Elite-ness." They have convinced pundits that he is "too soft."
This race has been won according to the numbers, but it can still be lost if the untrue perception that he "shouldn't win," or "can't win" are not effectively challenged.
The way Obama could lose is to make my mistake, to let voters continue to think he's soft; to let the Clintons and the traditional media continue to override the theme of the campaign. Barack Obama should make another big speech, topic tailored to working class voters. He should define the race his way, and he should NEVER talk again about what polls say or what pundits say. He should talk about what Hillary says and why it's wrong, and what he believes and why it's right.
Right Now!
In penance for a somewhat negative essay, I have given a large donation to the Obama campaign (and all I get is a lousy T-shirt <gr>. If you agree with any of this, I suggest you do the same.