Anyone with some high school math realizes that the race for the Democratic nomination has been over for about six weeks at this point. Obama continues to run a fairly classy, non-negative campaign largely because he has the luxury to do so. The Sound and Fury from the Clinton camp over the last two weeks is apparently important in the weird science of Television Entertainment (although on any other reality show I can think of she’d have been voted off by now ... except maybe a special edition of ‘Biggest Loser’). It’s enough to inspire some wailing and keening and gnashing of teeth on sites like TPM Cafe, but even there it is done so in half-hearted angst. The season is over. Time to rest up and get ready for the playoffs.
Updating the chart of the vanishing superdelegate gap through Saturday (from the data in Politico's logbook) the trend continues to illustrate this reality. Reconstructing the data day by day since Feb. 25th, I come up with a gap today of 24 delegates. Politico has it at 19 on another summary page, so things are close to an end from my data, but possibly closer in reality.
Although the polynomial trend (projecting when the gap vanishes) is still more satisfying, it is now coming in only a week earlier than the straight line forecast, and both before the end of May. (The exponential trend provides HRC with a margin +10 into June).
Cross posted from The Horse You Rode In On