The fact that this poll gave Obama a 40-25 edge in Indiana is meaningless. Here's how the questionnaire starts:
CLIENT NAME: HOWEY-GAUGE POLL
DISTRICT: INDIANA STATEWIDE
SAMPLE SIZE: 500 LIKELY VOTERS
FIELD DATES: FEB 17-18, 2008
TOPLINES
Hello, my name is ____________________ with Gauge Market Research. We do not sell anything; we
just conduct various types of surveys. Tonight we are conducting a public opinion survey among
registered voters in Indiana.
I would like to speak to the youngest male, registered voter who is at home now who is eligible to vote in
Indiana elections. (IF NO MALE AVAILABLE, ASK...) May I speak to the youngest registered female
voter who is at home now who is eligible to vote in Indiana elections?
It continues below the fold, but you get the idea. Selecting the youngest male registered voter in the household as the respondent, then if no male is available, selecting the youngest female, is going to skew the sample WAY towards Obama. This is NOT a poll that you'd use as a baseline for anything.
Do you or does anyone in this household work for:
The news media? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
Advertising or public relations? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
A marketing research firm? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
An elected public official? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
- Do you plan to vote in Indiana’s Presidential Primary Election on May 6? Will you vote in the Republican or Democratic Primary elections?
- VOTE IN INDIANA PRIMARY ELECTION
Republican 36%
Democrat 34%
Uncertain 30%
- (IF REPUBLICAN, ASK...) Do you favor (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain or Mike Huckabee for President?
- REPUBLICAN PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT
John McCain 52%
Mike Huckabee 23%
Uncertain 25%
- (IF DEMOCRAT, ASK...) Do you favor (ROTATE ORDER) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President?
- DEMOCRAT PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT
Hillary Clinton 25%
Barack Obama 40%
Uncertain 36%