The three latest polls seem to give HRC a decent advantage in IN. However, a closer look at cross tabs paints a different picture so please hang in here with me.
In any Obama primary where AA voters may make a difference one has to determine if the AA vote has been properly polled.
The important thing is that every 1% that AA vote is larger in a democratis primary than that is almost an entire % gained by Obama and also the same amount lost by HRC. In fact it is a 1.8% swing for every 1% of AA vote.
Also it is helpful to see how Kerry did against Bush in 2004. As a rule of thumb AA are a higher % of the democratic primary vote the worst Kerry did in 04. Look at VA, SC, GA, MD, OH, PA etc.
AA are 8.9% of Indiana population and they were 16.24% of Kerry voters. Kerry lost by 21% in Indiana a heavy red state. The more a state is red the heavier AA percentage is in the democratic primary vote compared to their state population percentage. Why???
Well most AA, by a wide margin, are democrats. Most whites in red states are republicans. Therefore, the more the state is blue the more white voters vote democrat the more AA vote is diluted.
Look at following numbers:
MD Kerry +13% win AA +28% (this means AA 29% of pop and 37% of vote or 28% increaseor 29% X 1.28 = 37%
PA Kerry +2% win AA 40%
OH Kerry -2% loss AA 50%
VA Kerry -8% loss AA +50%
SC Kerry -17% loss AA +89%
GA Kerry -17% loss AA +76%
IN Kerry -21% loss AA (the big mistery to be answered May 6th)
Well let us estimate.
MD If it is merely a 28% (MD example) increase then that would mean 8.9% X 1.28 = 11.4%. This is highly unlikely because Kerry won MD by 13 and lost IN by 21. 11.4% is the bottom range!!!
PA 40% would put IN AA at 12.46%.
OH / VA If it is the OH / VA +50% then 8.9% X 1.5 = 13.35% This is somewhat more reasonable.
GA / SC If it is GA or SC where Kerry lost by 17% only 4% less than he lost IN. then we can expect 8.9% X 1.76 = 15.66% to 8.9% X 1.89 = 16.82%.
So once I calculated these ranges:
Low 11.4% MD
Medium Low 12.46% PA
Medium 13.35% OH / VA
Medium High 15.66% GA
High 16.82% SC
I looked at what % of Kerry voters AA were in 2004. I was amazed thar they were 16.36% or in the high range. Can Obama excite AA more than Kerry. I think so.
SO WHAT % OF AA VOTE IS PREDICTED BY THE THREE POLLS IN MY DIARY TITLE???
SUSA AA are 10% (this is under even the lowest estimate)
PPP AA are 12% (This is essentially low turnout prediction)
Howey-Gauge AA are 20% (This is high + assumes Obama excites AA vote)
SUSA is clearly wrong, plain wrong!!!
PPP is off the mark but most pollsters are chasing their tails anyway lately.
Not surprisingly it is only the last poll that has Obama leading.
So what do you think?
My prediction 800,000 votes cast (+/- 25K) and HRC wins 52%-48% for a net gain of +30,000 votes.
My prediction details:
AA turnout 16%. Obama 90% of that vote. White + others 84% of the vote and Obama gets 40% of that vote. He nets just over 48%. HRC 52%. Close race. HRC does better with whites in blue states while whites in red states (non-deep south) are more favorable to Obama (exception WI and IL). He still loses white vote in most red states but does better than in blue.
For my NC prediction see my diary by adocarbog dated 4/25/2008.
Obama by 58%-42% in NC 1.5 Mil votes cast and Obama netting 240,000 votes. Note that the NC prediction is conservative while IN is neutral.
ALSO THE POLLS PPP AND SUSA SEEM TO ASSUME GOOD OLDER VOTER TURNOUT AND WEAK YOUTH TURNOUT.