I don't have much more to add to this story, except this is the after shock of xenophonbia. Even though Sen. McCain has been a moderate on immmigration here is hoping the rest of the GOP ticket continues with their twin campaigns of racism/xenophobia. POLITICO Hispanics may put Fla. in play for Dems
Democrats are poised this week to pass a crucial milestone in Florida: For the first time, the number of Hispanic Democrats in the state is expected to exceed the number of Hispanic Republicans.
The Florida secretary of state is expected to release the month's voter registration figures to the state Democratic and Republican parties. The last set of figures, released in April, showed a bare majority of 212 Republicans over Democrats among the state's roughly 1.2 million voters who describe themselves as Hispanic on their official voter registration forms. In each month since the state started tracking Hispanic registration more than two years ago, Democrats have gained.
Where this could be potential huge is not so much in Federal elections (yes I'm aware that winning Fl basically guarantees a democratic president) but at the state level. Many people may not be aware but FL is the most gerrymandered large state. I would rate them above Ohio(slightly) and Texas. In a state with a slight Democratic party registration edge, the US congressional delegation is largely republican (until 2006 it was 2/3), and the state senate and house are both overwhelmingly republican. This translate into a lot of GOP institutional strength that helps their whole ticket.
The significance of the numerical flip is mostly symbolic, but it's a powerful symbol at a key moment: Quietly, Democrats are debating whether to mount a full-out, expensive challenge to Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in Florida, or essentially cede its 27 Electoral College votes to theGOP. The Florida Democratic Party, still in the midst of a scheduling battle with the Democratic National Committee that has left the state with no say in the presidential nominating process, points to the numbers to argue that the national party should return to the state.
"They absolutely need to be in Florida," said state Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman, who called the anticipated shift among Hispanic voter registration "historic." "We're winning," she said.
Thsi next point is one of the key points.
In 2006, according to exit polls, Democrats won the Hispanic vote in Florida for the first time in 30 years, despite a Republican edge of about 45,000 registered Hispanic voters. Florida is one of a handful of states that sorts voter registrations by race. The Department of State releases the monthly figures only to the political parties.
Politico points out a number of key points. One Cuba as a single issue voting issue is losing steam. When castro dies, cuban americans are starting to wonder what US immigration policy will look like after the "wet-foot, dry-foot" policy has to end.
First, a younger generation of Cuban-Americans may be shedding its traditional loyalty to the Republican Party. "We've been noticing a generational trend for the last two or three election cycles," said Susan MacManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida. "While their parents and grandparents care about Cuba, the younger generations are a bit removed from that. They'd like to open up travel to Cuba and they're concerned about domestic policies and the war."
These are huge races. The symbolism of having a democratic US house member should not be lost. I think it would be the catalyst for driving the Cuban American vote in Fl to vote like they have in NJ with Sen. Menendez.
In addition to the presidential race, that theory will also be on display inthree South Florida House districts , where incumbent Republicans Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart face potentially serious threats from well-funded Democratic Hispanic challengers.
Finally the least talked about phenom in FL politics at the national level is the growth of Puerto Ricans in Orlando. This is a huge factor.
But the Hispanic growth in Orlando and in Central Florida's crucial "I-4 corridor" has also been a factor in the state's Democratic vote among Hispanics. Many Puerto Ricans, for example, have settled in the Orlando area, taking jobs in the state's stable tourism industry, McManus said. Colombians, Nicaraguans and other Hispanics have also moved to the area and typically lean Democrat.
The new numbers may not bode well for McCain — at least not with Hispanic voters.
"I think what you're going to see is a younger generation of Hispanics uneasy with John McCain because of the generational divide," said Richard Stuart Olson, a political science professor at Florida International University. "He seriously represents a different generation, and I would think that you'll see some interesting fractures in that demographic that we've never seen before."
In short I think FL with start to trend Blue. If anyone else othe rthen McCain was at the top of the ticket I think it would be a slam dunk. Her eis hoping that when McCain loses the rightwing of the GOP say "it's because he wasn't conservative enough" and goes over to the Tancredo wing of the party.