It's Tuesday, Sixo de Mayo, 2008. Someone forgot to tell North Carolina it wasn't a big, mattering state in time to cancel this foolishness. So they're having it. Polls close at 7:30 EDT.
IMMEDIATELY CALLED FOR OBAMA AT 7:30PM EDT.
After tonight, there are 37 mini-races left, and Obama has been viable in every single one of these races so far, which means 1 delegate. 135 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. That means the magic number tonight is 98. 98 means checkmate.
NC Board of Elections, USA Today
Overall:
Obama 66, Clinton 49
OBAMA +17, only 0.43% over the 6-1 threshold in CD 12, Obama only 0.12% under the 5-2 threshold in CD 13, Obama only 0.67% over the 4-2 threshold in CD 2, only under the 3-2 threshold by 0.73% in CD 6.
I will be updating these results in real time as fast as I can. Rieux has an Indiana and NC delegate live tracker too.
Turnout appears to be massive. I wrote a diary yesterday about what it would take for NC popular vote to erase PA popular vote and quiet all the yappering on teevee. If overall turnout of eligibles IS 50%, then Obama needs to win by 11.1% to erase PA.
Update: Obama also nabs NC superdel today. See below, Shuler will endorse Clinton (i.e., winner of CD-11).
Update: This looks to me like Obama +11 or Obama +13 or Obama +15. Most of the numbers look locked, even if a couple are close. CD 8 has been going back and forth all night. CD 9 is probably 3-3 (though no data in) and CD 12 is probably either 4-3 Obama or 5-2 Obama.
Obama is also on track to fully erase PA popular vote with his NC win. With 86% of precincts reporting, Obama is only 14,500 or so shy of erasing it.
At 96%, he's almost 5,000 votes past what he lost in PA. Indiana is sitting at around a 40K margin, and that is expected to tighten. There is a possibility the night overall washes out PA. That metric is D-O-N-E, DONE.
Update to the update: Obama +17, 66-49, it appears. I've been updating solid for 6 hours, about every 5 min. I'm done for a little while, will get the final straggle votes a bit later. Thanks to everyone who commented in the diary. Historic night.
North Carolina has 115 pledged delegates up for grabs. 77 at the district level and 38 statewide. Statewide is split twice, 26 at-large delegates and 12 PLEO delegates.
At large race, 26 delegates:
Winner gets: 50.01%-51.92%, 13-13 split
Winner gets: 51.93%-55.77%, 14-12 split
Winner gets: 55.78%-59.61%, 15-11 split
Winner gets: 59.62%-63.46%, 16-10 split
Winner gets: 63.47%-67.30%, 17-9 split
Winner gets: 67.31%-71.15%, 18-8 split
PLEO race, 12 delegates:
Winner gets: 50.01%-54.16%, 6-6 split
Winner gets: 54.17%-62.49%, 7-5 split
Winner gets: 62.50%-70.83%, 8-4 split
Updating results: Obama 57.58%, Clinton 42.42%
Translation to at-large: Obama 15, Clinton 11
Translation to PLEO: Obama 7, Clinton 5
Total statewide translation: Obama 22, Clinton 16
Congressional District 1 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Updating results: Obama 65.09%, Clinton 34.91%
Translation to: Obama 4, Clinton 2
Congressional District 2 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Updating results: Obama 59.01%, Clinton 40.99%
Translation to: Obama 4, Clinton 2
Congressional District 3 race, 4 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-62.49%, 2-2 split
Winner gets: 62.50%-85.00%, 3-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 4-0 split
Updating results: Obama 44.90%, Clinton 55.10%
Translation to: Obama 2, Clinton 2
Congressional District 4 race, 9 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-61.10%, 5-4 split
Winner gets: 61.11%-72.21%, 6-3 split
Winner gets: 72.22%-83.32%, 7-2 split
Updating results: Obama 66.68%, Clinton 33.32%
Translation to: Obama 6, Clinton 3
Congressional District 5 race, 5 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-69.99%, 3-2 split
Winner gets: 70.00%-85.00%, 4-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 5-0 split
Updating results: Obama 42.49%, Clinton 57.51%
Translation to: Obama 2, Clinton 3
Congressional District 6 race, 5 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-69.99%, 3-2 split
Winner gets: 70.00%-85.00%, 4-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 5-0 split
Updating results: Obama 49.27%, Clinton 50.73%
Translation to: Obama 2, Clinton 3
Congressional District 7 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Updating results: Obama 48.51%, Clinton 51.49%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 3
Congressional District 8 race, 5 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-69.99%, 3-2 split
Winner gets: 70.00%-85.00%, 4-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 5-0 split
Updating results: Obama 59.16%, Clinton 40.84%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 2
Congressional District 9 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Updating results: Obama 57.05%, Clinton 42.95%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 3
Congressional District 10 race, 5 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-69.99%, 3-2 split
Winner gets: 70.00%-85.00%, 4-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 5-0 split
Updating results: Obama 37.19%, Clinton 62.81%
Translation to: Obama 2, Clinton 3
Congressional District 11 race, 6 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-58.33%, 3-3 split
Winner gets: 58.34%-74.99%, 4-2 split
Winner gets: 75.00%-85.00%, 5-1 split
Winner gets: over 85%, loser not viable, 6-0 split
Updating results: Obama 43.27%, Clinton 56.73%
Translation to: Obama 3, Clinton 3
Update: Shitty QB says his superdelegate vote will go to the winner of this district
Congressional District 12 race, 7 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-64.28%, 4-3 split
Winner gets: 64.29%-78.57%, 5-2 split
Winner gets: 78.58%-85.00%, 6-1 split
Updating results: Obama 79.00%, Clinton 21.00%
Translation to: Obama 6, Clinton 1
Congressional District 13 race, 7 delegates
Winner gets: 50.01%-64.28%, 4-3 split
Winner gets: 64.29%-78.57%, 5-2 split
Winner gets: 78.58%-85.00%, 6-1 split
Updating results: Obama 64.16%, Clinton 35.84%
Translation to: Obama 4, Clinton 3