After last night's big win, the media is finally admitting the obvious that Clinton has no real path to victory. A steady stream of superdelegates is expected over the coming days and weeks. It would be truly great if the voters of Oregon put the Obama campaign over the top. To see if it is possible, I dug into the delegate math to find out how many more superdelegates Obama will need between now and May 20 to make it happen. The answer: 116. That is my new magic number. Details below the fold.
The key events are as follows: Obama gains add-ons from Utah, Colorado, and California, and plus wins pledged delegates in West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. Oregon will put him over the mathematical majority of pledged delegates, meaning he can then count on the Pelosi Club's support. That all leaves 116 delegates remaining to the magic 2024.
Here's the math:
Delegate Tracker Leading to Oregon
| | Obama Pledge Delegates | Obama Super Delegates | Obama Delegates Needed |
---|
Current | | 1589.5 | 255 | 180 |
5/9/08 | Utah Add-on (O+1) | 1589.5.5 | 256 | 179 |
5/10/08 | Mass. Add-on (C+2) | 1589.5 | 256 | 179 |
5/10/08 | Ohio Add-on (C+2) | 1589.5 | 256 | 179 |
5/13/08 | West Virginia Primary (O9 C19) | 1598.5 | 256 | 170 |
5/17/08 | Colorado Add-on (O+1) | 1598.5 | 257 | 169 |
5/17/08 | Michigan Add-on | 1598.5 | 257 | 169 |
5/17/08 | Nevada Add-on (C+1) | 1598.5 | 257 | 169 |
5/18/08 | California Add-on (O+2 C+3) | 1598.5 | 259 | 167 |
5/20/08 | Kentucky Primary (O16 C36) | 1614.5 | 259 | 151 |
5/20/08 | Oregon Primary (O28 C24) | 1642.5 | 259 | 123 |
5/20/08 | Pelosi Club (O+7 C-1) | 1642.5 | 266 | 116 |
Before 5/20/08 | Superdelegates Announcements (O+116) | 1642.5 | 382 | VICTORY |
This isn't a prediction. It's a hope.