Given that it is now highly appropriate to start discussing Obama's Vice-Presidential choice (as it may well be revealed within the next 60 days; if I'm not mistaken, Kerry selected Edwards on July 6, 2004)...I wanted to outline what appears to be most important in selecting a running mate, and who that leaves as the best possible options.
I end up with four that help above all others; Tim Kaine, Bill Richardson, Ed Rendell, and Kathleen Sebelius.
Please feel free to dispute the logic or throw in any others that make sense.
There are four categories that whoever is selected must fulfill.
- The choice must help Obama with at least one demographic group that he has struggled with.
This could lead in a number of different directions; a candidate with national security credentials, like a General Wesley Clark, Sen. Jim Webb, Colin Powell, or others....But I think Obama is stronger on defense than he is given credit for; his vote against the war will count more with the electorate than a running mate with military experience. Either way, there are other groups; Hispanics (Bill Richardson), Catholics (Tim Kaine), Jewish voters (Ed Rendell), working-class (Rendell, John Edwards) and women (Kathleen Sebelius, Claire McCaskill, HRC, several others). I would include "blue collar whites", though I think it's a contrived category, and I'd be stunned if Obama selected Larry the Cable Guy.
Anyway, since it is obviously unfair to view each of those names simply based on race or background, there are other criteria.
- The choice should not eliminate an active Senate seat, if there are reasonable alternatives.
That pretty much eliminates Jim Webb (the only slam-dunk Democrat in Virginia, Mark Warner, is already running for John Warner's seat. Webb's seat could easily end up back in Republican hands). Same for McCaskill, Jon Tester, Sens. Cantwell/Murray/etc, and Joe Biden....
While Richardson, Sebelius, Kaine, and Rendell are all sitting governors (and thus, might be more influential for their states than any federal politician), Kaine is term-limited in Virginia, and the campaign to replace him is already well under way (likely to be A.G. Bob McDonell-R, vs. state senator Creigh Deeds-D). Rendell is also term-limited and cannot seek re-election again, though he has a few more years before he has to leave office. Sebelius is term-limited to 2010, though she might run for Sam Brownback's seat at that point....
- The choice cannot overshadow the candidate.
Sorry, Hillary Clinton. Also, that probably eliminates any stunners, like Colin Powell, John Edwards (not that there's any chance he'd be considered or would accept, anyway), and others.
There is a question of whether Bill Richardson is too high-profile, and if there are any "newsworthy" skeletons in his closet that would distract from Obama's campaign. Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius might not see eye-to-eye with Obama on every issue, though they would both be deferential number-twos.
Obama won't need a spark from a VP candidate, anyway; just someone to bolster his credentials, stay out of his way, and...
- The choice must be the number-one cheerleader and surrogate for Obama.
Again, sorry HRC. Bridges would have to be mended from Ed Rendell's side, too; and Wesley Clark has shown no sign of backing off of his pro-HRC stance.
Above all else, there are three choices who have shown themselves to be perfect for this role.
Sebelius, who has been by Obama's side throughout, and has been a critical surrogate in the midwest.
(her only drawbacks---she really does fail to "move the needle" when she speaks; there's also the question whether selecting a woman would be obvious pandering)
Richardson, who's endorsement speech reminded all of us (at a tough time in the campaign) why Obama's candidacy is special. Plus, he does carry weight with Hispanics in Texas (might be in play), Florida, and Arizona.
(his drawbacks---he has made political missteps before, and there are rumors of skeletons in his closet going back years)
Ed Rendell, who might help bridge the gap with quite a few groups of Clinton supporters, and would almost certainly solidify Pennsylvania, Michigan, and perhaps even make strides in Ohio.
(his negatives are plentiful, though, starting with his continued campaigning against Obama)
and Tim Kaine, who was the first high-profile backer of Obama, and who has proven charismatic and fiscally responsible as Virginia's governor.
(his only drawback might be a pro-life stance, though he has indicated support for Roe v. Wade as the rule of law)
Any of those tickets would make sense, and could be a safe win in November.
One note on an Obama/Kaine ticket---as a Virginian, it was only a couple years ago when it seemed almost certain that one (if not both) of George Allen and Mark Warner would be at the top of a national ticket in 2008. The entire state was buzzing about the very probable chance that two native sons would be facing off for the presidency. The thought that there may, after all, be a Virginian on the national ticket (but it's neither Allen nor Warner) is astonishing to me. None of us saw Kaine coming.