Because of Barack Obama's large lead, he's in a position to agree to a generous settlement of the matter of Michigan and Florida: delegations that represent the will of those states' voters can be seated, with the same penalty that was assessed by the Republicans.
If this is done, Obama would retain an insurmountable pledged delegate lead, and a major talking point for both Clinton and for McCain is off the table.
Details after the jump.
Had Florida counted, the allocation would have been 105 Clinton, 67 Obama, 13 Edwards. Let's ignore Edwards for now (sorry, John) and divide by two. Obama now has 1590.5+33.5, or 1624 delegates; Clinton has 1426.5+52.5, or 1479 delegates. Obama retains a 145 delegate lead.
Now for Michigan. Had it counted fully, it would have gone 73 Clinton, 55 uncommitted. The uncommitted delegates represent anyone-but-Clinton votes, so it would appear to be unjust to grant any of those delegates to Clinton. But even if Obama gets zero, if we impose the 50% penalty, Clinton winds up with 1479+36.5, or 1515.5 delegates. Obama retains a 108.5 pledged delegate lead. If more "uncommitteds" vote Obama than Clinton, the lead for Obama just gets larger.
There are only 217 pledged delegates left! Obama only has to win 25% to win a majority of pledged delegates.
So, I think Obama can effectively end the race by proposing the following settlement:
- Seat Florida and Michigan; each delegate gets 1/2 vote.
- Uncommitted Michigan delegates vote their consciences.
- Superdelegates honor the result as decided by the voters.
He should do it publicly, now, then wait for everyone to do the math. Hillary's bubble will then pop, and we can start reuniting the party.
Clinton will argue for 100% votes for Florida and Michigan, but she should be ignored. After all, McCain can't use this settlement as an issue, since the Republicans imposes a 50% penalty as well on these states.