People are starting to notice the brilliance that is Poblano. Combining statistical regression, poll analysis, and census survey findings, Poblano managed to peg both Indiana and North Carolina in ways that drew widespread attention and outperformed all pollsters and RCP combined.
With the Nomination all but wrapped up, the question now becomes: What path to Victory does Obama have? And more importantly, is his Team already several steps ahead of the analysis?
In recent posts on 538 (essential reading), Poblano has again worked brilliance and paved the path to victory for Barack Obama in the Fall General Election Campaign. Follow me over the jump for some statistical bliss.
Give Poblano some Mojo
This project began with a request as outlined on a stellar new blog, Progressive Illinois
Recently, Progress Illinois and the SEIU Illinois Council (which sponsors us) asked Poblano to examine how incremental increases in turnout among certain demographic groups would affect the outcome of an Obama-McCain contest. What he found underscores the importance of voter mobilization this year.
Poblano's math stems from an ability to fuse poll data and census data to draw statistical conclusions which help to game out effects in certain population demographics upon statewhide and subsequently, electorial college math. What Poblano has done with this statistical analysis is lay out the foundation for victory in November and reveal the motivation behind the campaign's Vote for Change Voter Registraton drives which received a great deal of mention on this blog this past weekend.
Poblano examined the effects of increased voter turn out among three demographics which have shown a surge in participation during the primaries thus far, as outlined by this table provided by Poblano in the analysis of findings(bookmark that entry for future reference).
Following, in Poblano's discussion of demographics, he details how incremental increases in participation amongst these groups impacts certain states to great effect. Progressive Illinois explains in their own analysis
The Rust Belt states are the first to catch your eye. According to the baseline, if 2008 turnout levels mirror those in 2004, McCain is predicted to win Ohio by 1.6 percent. But when you increase African-American voters by 20 percent, the state tips towards Obama, giving him a 0.3 percent margin of victory. Push that up to 30 and 40 percent and his edge increases to 1.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, in neighboring Pennsylvania, a 30 percent increase in black turnout would increase Obama’s predicted margin of victory from 1.3 to 3.4 percent, and in Michigan from 1.3 to 4.4 percent.
Other states where Obama stands to benefit the most from increased African-American turnout are North Carolina and Virginia. Poblano’s baseline predicts a 6.6 percent margin of victory for McCain in North Carolina. But if you hike black turnout by 30 percent, that margin shrinks to just 0.9 percent. And when you reach a 40 percent increase, Obama takes the state.
Virginia follows much the same trend. A 30 percent increase in turnout slices McCain’s margin of victory from 4.5 to 0.5 percent. And once again, at the 40 percent level, Obama wins.
Poblano Adds
For each 10 percent increase in African-American turnout, Obama gains approximately 13 electoral votes, and 1 percent in his popular vote margin against John McCain. Even a 10 percent increase is enough to take him from a slight underdog against McCain to a slight favorite, while at higher levels of turnout improvement, Obama becomes the strong favorite.
Next is Youth Turnout. Progressive Illinois explains
While 18-24 year-olds are spread rather evenly across all 50 states, Poblano points to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota as states with traditions of high youth turnout. His baseline currently has them all in Obama’s column. But if young voters flock to the polls come November – as they’re expected to – these three states could end up far out of McCain’s reach.
And Poblano Adds
Alaska is an extremely young state and could become a swing state with higher youth turnout. Texas and Georgia are also quite young and could become competitive with a strong youth turnout coupled with an improvement in Hispanic and black turnout, respectively.
One can see quickly how the Vote for Change events are drawing a victory map in an otherwise fairly even landscape. There is also a study in increased Latino turnout and it's effect upon Obama's performance in certain states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Because Obama doesn't hold commanding margins amongst Latino Voters, though they are improved when looking back to California and Texas respectively, the effect is not quite as dramatic.
In the end, Poblano combines the effects of increased turnout amongst these demographics to examine ultimate impact of the Vote for Change potential.
Finally, we can run a couple of scenarios that combine the effects of turnout improvements among these different groups. The first scenario is what I call the "40/20 Plan": increasing youth (18-24) turnout by 40 percent, and African-American turnout by 20 percent, but not focusing specifically on Latinos. The second is the "40/30/20 Plan": aiming for a 40 percent increase in youth turnout, a 30 percent increase in Latino turnout, and a 20 percent increase in African-American turnout. The last is what I'm simply calling the "Best Case Scenario". This would be a 50 percent increase in youth turnout, a 50 percent increase in Latino turnout, and a 40 percent increase in African-American turnout. Although this latter scenario is unlikely to develop, it should help to provide some context for where a strong ground game could make the most difference for Obama.
As you can see, these effects are quite powerful when combined. The 40/20 Plan would gain Obama about 48 electoral votes, and improve his win percentage to 68.3 percent. Adding Latinos to this plan would improve his win percentage further to 71.7 percent. And under his best case turnout scenario, Obama becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the election, as states like Texas and Georgia could turn blue.
Progressive Illinois wraps it's analysis
"If Obama wins the traditional big three, he’s going to have a tough time losing anyway," Poblano said. "But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio – if you’re winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it’s a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election."
While the media has often focused on Obama’s star power, his success is largely the result of a campaign team that, through thick and thin, keeps its eye on the big picture. In late 2007, the Clinton camp believed that a slew of primary victories on February 5 were all they needed to cinch the nomination. By contrast, Obama’s advisers focused on the half of the country that wasn’t voting that day. In the end, it was their intensive organizing in states like Idaho, Kansas, and Colorado that brought Obama to the threshold of the nomination.
Which brings me back to a point I'd like to make about the Prescience and accuracy that the Obama Campaign has exibited thus far this election season. Obama's campaign has effective employed Math, Electorial Genius and Predictive prowess to gain an entry as an insurgent during the Primary. So long as message, finances, and candidate performance stayed on track, the math fell into place, according to the predictions layed out by the campaign's unsung hero, Jeff Berman. It was Berman who wrote that now fabled Spreadsheet which was correct with the exception of only two contests, and has proven to be an incredibly accurate grasp upon the electorial map. Obama's campaign understood how to win the Primary from the beginning, and after understanding fully Poblano's Roadmap, it's clear again the Obama campaign is ahead of the game. May 10th was the start of the final phase of the smarter campaign. It received blog attention, it got some print press, but in the end, more than any probable debate, commercial or slogan, Vote for Change is the road to victory. As Progressive Illinois states
Come November 5, we may find ourselves looking back at this year’s intensive voter mobilization efforts as what put Obama – and down-ballot Democrats nationwide – over the top.
I am glad I took part in History Saturday and I look forward to the Obama campaign improving, refining and focusing future energy in critical places to boost key turnout through both voter registration, GOTV and voter Mobilization. It's a brilliant campaign to be a part of. Thanks Poblano for really breaking it all down as you have and shedding light on the mystery that is ahead, known as Obama's Path to Sure Victory.
PS: Play along with the statistics using Poblano's Spreadsheet here.
PPS: Catch Poblano's Q&A on some math critiques he'd received in his comment sections. This back and forth with the readers really, to me at least, makes Poblano one of a kind.