From Clintonopedia, the encyclopedia of denial
A Hail Mary pass or Hail Mary play in American Politics is an election strategy made in desperation, with only a small chance of success. The typical Hail Mary is a very long, tedious plan executed near the end of a primary where there is no possibility for any reasonable plan to work. This plan is unlikely to be successful, because the general inaccuracy of the plan and the defensive team's preparedness for the plan makes it likely that it can intercept or knock down the desperate candidate’s assault -- the plan is executed and a prayer is said, hoping the leading candidate’s electability somehow disintegrates.
Setup
Although the Hail Mary has a low percentage chance of success, it is generally a standard play in every political playbook at both the federal and local level.
The Hail Mary play can occur with multiple, simultaneous attacks on the leading candidate’s past positions and/or associations -- perhaps manipulating bits of fact with other, more sensational misinformation, but mostly, they just make shit up.
Sometimes the team running the Hail Mary will not consider the damage they are creating to the party’s longer-term electoral chances, instead choosing to use every possible eligible attack to mitigate the leader’s appeal, hoping to sour the leading candidate’s appeal and thus offer the trailing candidate more options upon which to grasp.
The losing candidate relentlessly attacks, throwing barbs through to the final moments of the primary. It must be noted that the Hail Mary pass does not actually need to be completed to succeed. It may also succeed in drawing a gaffe from the leading candidate (a strong possibility with so many swiftboat attacks and left-field distractions for the defense to cover), which gives the offense the ability to run another plan from a stronger position. However, the primary game is unlikely to end on a gaffe -- even if there is no time left on the clock. Thus, it is still up to the trailing candidate to hype the gaffe beyond recognition and drive it through the news cycle. Hopefully this will lead to an opportunity to convince precious superdelegates to overturn the will of the people.
The play is almost never successful in potential primary-winning situations, but might be worthy of an attempt in situations where there are no other alternatives, such as a primary where the trailing candidate desperately clings to a once-intimidating lead that has since been replaced by a reality that mathematically and realistically disallows the laggard from capturing the candidacy.
Defense
Defending against the Hail Mary is straightforward. The first priority is to ensure the leading candidate’s defensive strategists/researchers stay on topic, that they keep vehicles for spreading rumors/misinformation constantly on their radar, and that, when the attack is thrown, it is handled in a forceful, yet careful manner so as not to bring about the flub that the hail-Mary-thrower desires. The leader’s goal is to prevent a trivial attack from spinning into a large gain for the losing candidate.
In many cases, the leading candidate will replace some of its own attack dogs with extra defensive specialists in order to help compensate when the opposing team escalates their attacks. Once the attacks are rolling toward the electorate, the primary role of the defensive strategists and the leading candidate is to knock the attacks to the ground, thus ending the play, thus preventing the loser’s hopeful comeback and eliminating anything along the lines of a verbal fumble – a possibility if the leading candidate attempted to debate or give credence to the losing candidate’s dubious accusations.
Origins
The term "Hail Mary pass" is believed to have been coined by George W. Bush’s Strategist, Karl Rove, referring to his desperation (and Catholic beliefs), for his election-stealing Supreme Court decision in the November, 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. With no time remaining, the Bush team threw a desperation pass to Justices Scalia and Thomas, who were backed up by justices Renquist, Kennedy, and O’Connor. As the decision came down, the world was stunned as the Supreme court dropped the ball for all Earth's citizens and put Bush in the Whitehouse.