Here's a national AP story out this morning on the Oregon Senate race:
As head of the deep-pocketed Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Sen. Charles Schumer hand-picked his party's nominee to take on Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, the last Republican standing on the West Coast.
But voters may have another idea.
Days before votes are counted in the Oregon primary, Schumer's choice — Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley — is in a tight battle with Portland lawyer and activist Steve Novick. Polls show the race is too close to call.
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(more from the article)
If Novick pulls off the upset, it could be a rare loss for Schumer, who acquired a reputation as a recruitment kingmaker after steering Democrats back to majority control of the Senate in 2006. This year, Schumer is working to expand that majority, with some Democrats even hoping for a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
The DSCC is working overtime to make sure Merkley ekes out a win. Schumer, who recruited Merkley after two Democrats in the state's congressional delegation declined to run, has sent fundraising appeals on Merkley's behalf, and the DSCC has spent nearly $300,000 on TV ads boosting Merkley.
All that effort has left Novick puzzled.
"Why they think Merkley can beat Gordon Smith if they have to prop him up to beat me is beyond me," Novick said.
Schumer, who typically makes himself available to reporters, declined to comment for this story.
No doubt! Whatever candidate one might favor in the race, it was clear fairly early to many observers that both had viable shots at Gordon Smith, both were loyal Democrats, and both would represent the party well in November.
So why start with a $100,000 kickoff gift to one candidate--three times as much as any other Dem challenger received, and months earlier than DSCC typically involves itself financially--and then double and triple down once the high competitiveness of the race became clear?
Thankfully for Novick supporters their candidate has declined to give up, amassing over a million dollars in a hostile donor environment, over half from ActBlue donations that far outpaced his rival's. And as the article notes, four polls since May have indicated a race without a clear leader.
As ballots come in (29% as of May 15 in this handy, weekday-updated chart from the SoS), watch the numbers in the three Portland metro counties: Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas. Multnomah contains about 98% of Portland proper, and is fiercely liberal. Washington is blue but includes more suburbs and rural areas, and while Clackamas has just this year flipped with more D registrations, it is considered the most "conservative" of the three and is the most undeveloped. (It is the #1 county in the country for Christmas trees, to give you an idea, but it also has the richest suburb, Lake Oswego).
The tendency is for the larger counties to show slower return rates, typically 2-5 points behind the state average. As you see, Clackamas is lagging at 24%, while Washington and Multnomah are at 27%. The closer the Multno number in particular is to the state average, the greater and more liberal the turnout is likely to be overall, given that one out of every five voters lives there. (Note that these figures cover both primaries; the SoS does not release them publically but I understand the return rate for Democrats is in the low to mid 30s as of the middle of the week. )
With this kind of excitement, it seems even less sensible for the DSCC to involve itself in a competitive race. We'll find out Tuesday where Schumer's streak stands.*
*a line which should confuse many here anyway--didn't he lose in MT and TN last time?