In the time following the end of my spring semester and prior to commencing work as an Obama Organizing Fellow (hopefully), I find myself with way too much time on my hands. So I'm devoting it to one of my favorite past times - idle Vice Presidential speculation!
My first diary at DailyKos was in response to constant chatter in favor of Jim Webb for VP.
And on Sunday, I speculated on whether Clinton will try to force her way onto the ticket, an idea I know you guy all love. But one of the reasons for my diary was to demonstrate how the VP spot will be an important symbol to the party. While no one ever says the VP spot is the reason they voted for a candidate, I believe it has an important impact.
As such, I think it's important to have the right parameters in mind for what to look for in an Obama Vice Presidential pick. So I've created the Ten Commandments for Obama's VP.
1. Thou Shalt Be An Agent of Change
Obama's the change candidate. Old Washington hands an insiders won't be of much use to him. In order to be on the Obama ticket, candidates have to be able to complement his image.
2. Thou Shalt Have The Right Experience
While experience isn't a huge deal, he can't get a pick a complete political neophyte. Also ideally the VP's experience will complement Obama's by filling a weakness, either by beefing up his foreign policy credentials or by providing executive experience.
3. Thou Shalt Be A Credible Future President
The VP nominee has to be seen as a credible President, able to step in and handle crisis, so they have to be seen as "Presidential." Also, veeps usually go on to run for President, so we want someone who can assume the mantle of leader of the party some day. Outside of being qualified and having the right stances, that means the VP shouldn't be too old and also should be engaging on the stump.
4. Thou Shalt Possess A Spirit of Bipartisanship
Obama wants to be able to govern, and he would send a strong signal that he's willing to work across the aisle by picking a Vice President that has a history of doing so. On the other hand if he picks a hyper-partisan choice in order to fill the traditional VP-as-attack-dog role, it would undercut his claim that he's for a 'different kind of politics.'
5. Thou Shalt Be A True Progressive
While the bipartisanship angle is all nice and good, we want the VP to be acceptable to the progressives as well. So picking a Republican or a centrist wouldn't be ideal. Ideally, a balance of 4 and 5 would lead to a VP nominee known for working across the aisle without betraying progressive principles. The VP nominee must support universal healthcare
6. Thou Shalt Help Unite the Party
As the Washington Post recently noted:
In addition to the fledgling attempts to merge the fundraising operations of Obama and Clinton, there is growing talk that the best -- and perhaps only -- way to truly mend the rift is for Obama to pick a top Clinton surrogate as his vice presidential nominee.
"There's gale-force pressure for Obama to choose a Clinton loyalist as a running mate to heal the party but avoid putting her and her formidable baggage on the ticket," said one Obama ally in Washington. "You hear the names [Ohio Gov. Ted] Strickland, [Indiana Sen. Evan] Bayh, and [retired general] Wes Clark almost constantly, and it's no secret that Jim Johnson and Tom Daschle are purveyors of that wisdom."
While I don't necessarily agree that the VP has to be a Clinton loyalist, it is clear that the VP can't be unacceptable to Clinton voters.
7. Thou Shalt Help With Demographics
Fivethirtyeight.com has been uncannily close in predictions for the Democratic primary not by looking at polls but simply by analyzing the demographics. In the primaries, Obama has run well behind Clinton with Hispanics, women, seniors, Catholics and the constantly discussed "white working class voters." The New York Times even did a story on gender issues as a result of Hillary's fading chances in which Geraldine Ferraro called Obama "terribly sexist" and said she might not support him in the general. Obama's "sweetie" flap doesn't help things either.
Picking a woman might help women recover from the disappointment of not having the first female president. While Obama will win Hispanics, John McCain has a chance to minimize his advantage. A Hispanic Vice President could ensure record turnout and margins for Obama. However, picking a VP that's strong with white working class voters could help deliver the rust belt. A southerner could help deliver Virginia and North Carolina. Each choice has its pros and cons, but one has to admit that demographics are certainly a factor. After all, I don't see Deval Patrick on Obama's short list.
8. Thou Shalt Be a Convincing Partner
Clinton and Gore worked because they reinforced each others strengths as vigorous young southern moderates. We could buy them as a team. Obama's VP can't just be a strategic decision - they also have to be comfortable with one another, otherwise it could potentially come off as pandering, calculating or as a gimmick. Likewise, while the VP can be from the Clinton campaign, it can't be from someone who campaigned negatively against Obama.
9. Thou Shalt Not Bring Baggage to the Ticket
Hillary Clinton likes to claim she's been fully vetted, but look what that vetting has brought her: terrible favorability numbers and a ton of ammunition Republicans can use in the fall. The traditional rule on VPs is "do no harm" and that holds true to this election. Obama can't afford to lose precious media cycles to distractions about his VP's background.
10. Thou Shalt Not Be Named Joe Lieberman
Seriously, if all Presidential nominees had used my list, we could have avoided a truly disastrous pick in 2000. (See also: Commandment 11, Thou Shalt Not Be Named Geraldine Ferraro.)
With this basic framework in mind, tomorrow I will post a diary about potential Obama picks and why I think they'd be good or bad ideas.
Post names in the comments if there is someone you think should be put under consideration. I'll try to discuss as many names as possible