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We all already know there will be a split decision today in Kentucky and Oregon. Hillary is expected to win Kentucky and Obama is expected to win Oregon. So why bother to predict this race when we already know the likely result? By reading this diary you will know that Obama  is going to win by a larger margin in Oregon than expected thanks to two polls: Suffolk University poll and ARG. Suffolk shows Obama leading Hillary by only 4% and ARG shows Obama with a 5%(not surprisingly).

Here's my prediction that you can compare with the actual result tomorrow.

Oregon

Barack Obama     60%
Hillary Clinton  38.8%

Kentucky

Hillary Clinton  62.9%
Barack Obama     33.3%

Earlier today, Kos had a round up of predictions coupled with his, I posted them below so we can compare tomorrow.

Kentucky:

Pollster.com composite: 63.2C, 28O

PsiFighter37: 67.2C, 32.8O
Poblano: 55.9C, 37.0O, 7E
Al Giordano: 63.6C, 31.3O, 5.1E
Jerome: 62C, 32O, 5E
Election Inspection: 62C, 31O, 7E

Oregon:

Pollster.com composite: 54.1O, 41.6C

PsiFighter37: 59.7O, 40.3C
Poblano: 56.6O, 43.4C
Al Giordano: 57.6O, 42.4O
Jerome: 54O, 46C
Election Inspection: 55.4O, 44.6C

My predictions:

Kentucky:

Clinton 63.1
Obama 31.5
Edwards 5.4

Oregon:

Obama 57.7
Clinton 42.3

http://www.dailykos.com/...

So chime in with your predictions and show that you are better than ARG!

ARG's numbers for Oregon

Obama  50%
Clinton 45%

ARG's numbers for Kentucky

Obama   29%
Clinton 65%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

Originally posted to Jr1886 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 12:52 PM PDT.

Poll

I can do better than ARG

5%4 votes
78%61 votes
3%3 votes
12%10 votes

| 78 votes | Vote | Results

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