Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number ten in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole old growth forest. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
And, hey, look at me! I’m a fifth of the way there already, on my tenth state! To celebrate (and now that we’ve finally picked a nominee for our top tier Senate race), I’m going to look at my home state of OREGON today!
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ah, Oregon! My beautiful home State! Where shall I begin?
The short version of Oregon's political makeup: West Oregon is blue, and east Oregon is red. There are more people in west Oregon, and so we win.
The longer, more accurate version of Oregon: We’re divided into several regions, which range from extreme left to extreme right. There are more blue regions, and the red regions are ideologically divided, and so we win. The regions are as follows:
THE PORTLAND METRO REGION, with about 33% of the population, is of course solid blue, and the bedrock of our customary statewide victories.
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY (20%), from outside Portland to Salem, used to be solid red, but is now a mixed bag. It’s bluer at the northern end and redder at the southern, Salem end. Washington County has evolved into a Democratic stronghold, and we are making slow inroads into Clackamas and Marion counties as well, as evidenced by a couple of sweet state legislative victories in the 2006 cycle. If we can nail down the valley for the Democrats, Republicans won’t really have a home here at all any more.
The biggest thing about the valley is that even the Republicans are really libertarians. They don’t like taxes, but they’re pro-choice and pro privacy, and would like to see marijuana legalized. This means that most of the statewide Republicans are unpalatable to them, and the valley Republicans are unpalatable to the east.
EUGENE AND CORVALLIS (15%), the two big University towns are, if anything, more blue than Portland
THE COAST (5%, maybe a little less) leans blue, in a paler shade than the cities. It’s traditionally Democratic, wavered a bit in the Clinton/Bush2 years, and has now turned back to its roots, largely in reaction to...
TIMBER COUNTRY (10%), pretty much everything in West Oregon outside of Jackson County and the regions already named, making a u-shape around the valley and extending down through Linn, rural Lane, Douglas and Josephine Counties. This region went Republican because of the unemployed loggers who have been taught by their former bosses (and unions too, to their shame) to blame liberal environmentalism for timber closings. Ther’re rough for Democrats, but not a lost cause. Many local Democrats, like Rep. Pete DeFazio, know how to talk to loggers, and are beloved by Eugene liberals and Roseburg loggers alike.
JACKSON COUNTY, DESCHUTES COUNTY AND THE COLUMBIA GORGE (at least 12% and growing) are three growth areas that have turned formerly solid red territory into a softer shade of pink, as more people move here. Bend, in Deschutes County, is the fastest growing place in Oregon. It’s hard to measure the political tendencies of the newcomers until they vote, but it seems that the Shakespeare lovers who come to Jackson County and the windsurfers who come to the gorge are somewhat more liberal than the skiers, urban cowboys and retirees who come to Bend. But see Ben Westlund, under State Treasurer, for a possible contrary view about how Bend may go.
THE REST OF THE EAST (5%) is the most inalterably Republican part of the state, and consists mostly of cattle ranchers and people who hate their fellow humans to the extent that they choose to live in the middle of nowhere to get away from civilization.
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
BLOGS: My favorite Oregon blogs are Blue Oregon for statewide news and information, with commentary from some of the more prominent Democratic activists, and Loaded Orygun for in yo face progressive netroots activism with a Portland flavor.
http://www.blueoregon.com/
http://www.loadedorygun.net/...
PRESIDENT: Safe Obama. I’d love to tell you this one’s in doubt, so that Barack might find out and figure he has to come pay us some more visits, but no. Our patriotic duty is to set his mind at rest so that he can go shore up some purple and red states into his column. We haven’t voted GOP for President since The Gipper, and we ain’t about to start now. Oregonians are smart enough to see through all that "maverick" crap, especially since so many of our good Democrats are real gen-u-wine mavericks, and we know ‘em when we see ‘em.
Besides, we got our share of Obama visits, coming so late in the primary season. No need to be greedy for more. (sigh)
SENATE: This is the big one! My personal choice for the most important top-tier election to work on. There are other big ones in other states, but this one is where I live.
Like America, we had a long primary for this one, and I’m glad it didn’t get any more divisive. If you know where the "Admiral Naismith" handle comes from, you KNOW why I find Steve Novick an appealing politician and hope he stays in politics. The man is a walking dynamo in the Paul Wellstone model, giving hope and strength to Democrats wherever he goes, and making us larger by never being small. If he keeps going, he’s sure to find his niche and eventually win elected office and kick ass at it.
However, Jeff Merkley, the popular speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, is so good in his own right that he kept me on the fence through the primary season, even against Novick. Consider the difficulties Pelosi has had as Congressional ringmaster, even with a sizeable majority and the ability to rewrite the rules, or if your state has a close legislature and gets clogged up with obstructionist Republicans, think of that---and then consider how well Merkley ran a legislative body with a one-seat majority. That’s right. 29 Republicans in a 60-seat body, all determined to gum up the works, and needing just one Liebercrat DINO to do it in a state with a big urban/suburban/rural divide. And Merkley held party discipline and gave us one of the most productive, useful legislative sessions since the Goldschmidt era of the 1980s. He’ll do that for America, if we let him in the Senate.
UPDATE: The first post-primary Senate poll, by DSCC, shows Merkley trailing by just THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS. Compare that with the June 2006 polls showing Sherrod Brown, John Tester, Claire McCaskill, Sheldon Whitehouse and James Webb all trailing Republicans--and look who's in the Senate today. NOW do you believe it's a top tier pickup opportunity?
Wow. Excuse me for a moment—I sat on my wallet until now waiting for a nominee. Now, I’m off to donate to Jeff Merkley!
http://www.jeffmerkley.com/
OK, I’m back now. Where was I? Oh, yes. Merkley for Senate, against the odious Gordon, Dark Lord of the Smith. The only Republican still squatting on a statewide office in Oregon. Let’s lose this guy. Oregon is a blue state, and this is a crucial, CRUCIAL step toward achieving dominance in the US Senate. In my judgment, we will not get to the coveted 60 seat majority without taking Oregon.
Complicating things, we have a possible Constitution Party candidate attacking Smith from the right and maybe siphoning off wingnut votes, which is good. But we also have John Frohnmayer, one of the last of the genuinely moderate Republicans, running on an Independent ("Oregon for Frohnmayer"?) ticket, and no one is quite sure whether the votes he takes from the middle will help or hurt Merkley. Some say the presence of several alternatives to the status quo benefits the incumbent by default; others say that the moderate Republicans of the Willamette Valley will go for Frohnmayer, and if that happens, Smith loses for certain. There are no more runoffs; whoever gets the most votes goes to the Senate, even if it’s less than 50%.
Really, anything can happen. Please join me in helping Democrats win this all-important Senate contest.
GOVERNOR : Not up until 2010. And the incumbent, Ted Kulongoski, will be finishing his second term, so it will be wide open.
OTHER STATEWIDE:
Our nominee for Secretary of State is the brilliant, beautiful Kate Brown, who won a three-way primary with an outright majority. The Republican is a local newscaster who has never held office and who got fewer votes than the second-place finisher for the Democrats. In a just world, the general election would be between Brown and Rick Metsger, but it almost matters—this is a safe Dem hold. Good thing, too. If we somehow lose our legislative majority, or the governor’s mansion before redistricting season, and Republicans obstruct our redistricting, the Secretary of State will get to draw the district maps all by herself! Which is what happened in 2001, and is a good part of why we went from holding neither state legislative body then to holding them both now.
http://www.katebrownfororegon.com/
Our attorney general is going to be John Kroger, who won his primary against Greg MacPherson. Since there’s no Republican on the ballot, I guess that means he doesn’t even have to do anything in the general. Kroger is a mixed bag, vowing to be the people’s lawyer and mount Elliot Spitzer style prosecutions of corporate frauds and polluters, but also gushing scarily over Oregon’s Measure 11, the draconian mandatory sentencing law that reduces judges to bar-code readers and causes Oregon to spend more money building more prisons to hold the population. Our schools could use that money.
http://www.johnkroger.com/
Ben Westlund is, barring an act of God, going to be our next state treasurer, facing only token Republican opposition. Remember the name, as he’s part of the movement to make fast-growing Bend comfortable with Democrats. He started out GOP, then switched to Independent, and finally to Democrat in a very public way, voicing the frustration with the Bush League that hopefully many other east Oregonians feel too. I favor juxtaposing his picture with John McCain during the election, so that people can recognize the difference between John McCain and a REAL maverick.
http://www.westlundfortreasurer.com/...
Finally, there will be a special election for State Labor Commissioner, as the incumbent stepped down in mid-term. State Senator Brad Akavian was appointed to fill the spot until the special, and so far there is nobody but him on the ballot; however, filing has not yet closed. Gosh, maybe Kevin Mannix will file for this one, too. He’s rapidly turning into Oregon’s white Alan Keyes!
http://www.boli.state.or.us/ (only "Brad Akavian" spot I could find)
STATE LEGISLATURE: The Senate is 19-D, 11R, and may flip as much as one seat to the Republicans due to Westlund resigning his pink-leaning Bend seat to run for Treasurer. No worries here.
The State House is a much narrower 31D-29R, and was projected to be a battleground. The amazing thing is, the Republicans chose not to field a candidate at all in many of the swing districts, and so at the time of this writing we’re favored to ADD one to four seats to our majority.
As an example of what happened, let’s focus on my native Lane County, which has 8 state representatives, 7 Dems and a Gooper, including two Democrats, Jean Cowan and Chris Edwards who narrowly won great victories over incumbent Republicans (I like to think I had something to do with the Edwards win). Edwards was even targeted with mailings during the off-year season, when there wasn’t even an election, scolding him for legislative votes that Republicans thought might be used to soften him with conservatives. And yet, Cowan, and Edwards and three other Democrats drew no Republican challenger at all, while the other two Democrats have token no-name opposition. They are all safe, while the ONLY local race of note is the one GOP-held seat. And yeah, that guy’s likely to win too, but he’s the one who will have to sweat a little. Not a bad position to be in.
A Note on some local races: In Portland, Samuel Adams (Terrible beer; great candidate) got an outright majority and is now Mayor of Portland. He’ll probably hold statewide office one day.
My native Lane County (you know, the place where five out of seven Democrats have no GOP opposition at all, and the other two face sacrificial lambs) saw, to me, one of the biggest disappointments of the night, as Eugene’s beloved mayor Kitty Piercy failed to win an outright majority against a Republican thug who’s fatter than Limbaugh and only twice as honest. In fact, for most of the night, she was narrowly BEHIND in votes, before finally getting 48.7% to the Rethug’s 48.5%, with a couple of quixotic alternative candidates getting a few hundred votes each and forcing a runoff (in Oregon, races ranked as officially "nonpartisan" go to runoffs if no one gets over 50%; partisan races have no runoff. Don’t ask me why).
Frankly, I didn’t see that one coming. Piercy was supposed to kick ass, especially with all the Democrats turning out for Obama and Clinton. The Republican—who even has to lie about being a Republican in order to fool people into voting for him—got about 75% of his money contributions from the same ten filthy rich people and companies, all of them tied to development interests. Piercy gets most of her money from individual contributions of under $1,000. Now the Evil Gooper Machine gets to spend more money all summer attacking our mayor, and we’ll have to divert resources from the Merkley Senate race to protect her.
On the other hand, Rob Handy, the progressive candidate for County Commissioner, who I thought would lose to the veteran corporatist incumbent, ALSO got a bare plurality of votes and advances to a runoff. The five member county commission currently has two genuine progressives, one establishment Democrat who usually votes with the progressives (except when he doesn’t), and two conservatives. The only contested race is for the seat held by the least objectionable of the two conservatives, and if won, would make the board of commissioners a firm force for good in Lane County.
I’m somewhat annoyed at both races for going into November, as I had hoped to be able to concentrate entirely on Lane County for Merkley for US Senate, but at least the progressives did get (barely) more votes than their opponents, and runoffs are better than outright losses. Just—why couldn’t just 100 more people have voted for Kitty Piercy?
Congressional Districts
District 1—David Wu (D). West Portland and Washington County. A former swing region, getting bluer each election. Safe Democrat.
District 2—Noah Lemas (D) v. Greg Walden (Inc R). The only Republican-held district in Oregon contains 1/5 of the people, but about ¾ of the land. There are growing population bases in Jackson County, Deschutes County and along the Columbia Gorge, all of which are slowly turning east Oregon bluer while the Republican bases of Klamath Falls and Pendleton slowly lose influence. Everything else is sprawling high desert and mountains with very, very few people. Walden has had some ethical scandals (what’s a Republican without them?) and could be vulnerable; however, he’s made noises about running for Governor in 2010, leaving the district open and an easier shot; plus, Oregon has a top tier Senate race, another district to defend and a one-seat legislative majority to expand on, and so the Democrats appear to have put this one on the back burner until 2010, when it might be open, or 2012, when it will have been redistricted by Democrats.
http://www.noahlemas.com/
District 3—Earl Blumenauer (D). East Portland. Safe Democrat.
District 4—Peter "The Faz" DeFazio(D). My Congressman! I love him soooooooooooo much! And he’s unopposed! Guess I can focus on the Senate race.
District 5—Other than the US Senate race, this is the other big one in Oregon. Incumbent Democrat Darlene Hooley is retiring this year, she says, because our chances of keeping an open seat are better than usual this cycle, which might not be the case two years into Obama’s Presidency. It’s near the top of everyone’s increasingly short list of Democratic seats where we need to pay attention to defense.
The 5th is considered a swing seat. Democrats get votes in solid blue Corvallis, in the two coastal counties, and in upper Clackamas County, near Portland. Republicans have usually dominated Salem, but Democrats have been making headway there in recent years. The rest of the Willamette valley ranges from purple to pink, and the thinly populated forestland in Polk county and the far eastern end is solid Republican.
Our nominee is Kurt Schraeder, a State Senator from Clackamas County, who will carry his district and do well in the valley, which ought to be enough to win. The opponent, Mike Erikson, has been weakened by scandals and by having to fight off the Evil Clown Kevin Mannix, who called him a "coke snorting babykiller". Most Democrats would have preferred the unelectable Mannix to have won the primary, but Erikson makes a suitable stooge in his own right.
http://www.kurtschrader.com/
REDISTRICTING OREGON, or how to make five blue districts instead of four:
Step 1. Make a whole new District 2 centered on the Oregon coast, and shaped like a bracket, encompassing the counties of Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Lincoln, Coos, Curry, Josephine and Jackson. Probably Yamhill and Polk as well, and just enough of coastal Lane and Douglas to connect it. The coast and Ashland lean blue. If it turns out we need more blue voters, some of the Portland metro area can be added or Yamhill county taken out.
Step 2. Start the new 3rd district way out in Wallowa county at the Northeastern corner, and add all the small counties along the Washington border, heading into East Multnomah and Portland. Geographically, this will absorb Pendleton, and the Columbia gorge, which is a swing area anyhow. The 3rd will still be the bluest district around, but it will take away some Republicans.
Step 3. Redraw the 1st district so that it still has West Portland (or all of it not included in the new 2nd) and all of Washington county. Then dribble it down I-5 to take in as many purple-to-red suburbs from Clackamas/Marion as we can afford. If we have to, we can go to east Portland, but I don’t think we will. Washington county is emerging as a blue bastion in its own right.
Step 4. Redraw the 4th District to spread east from Douglas county to Klamath Falls and all of the sprawling, barely populated counties in the east, but leaving Deschutes and Jefferson counties alone. That’s a lot of territory, but very few people. To compensate for the new Republicans, keep Eugene and add all of Benton County (Corvallis)
Step 5. The new 5th is what’s left over, which is Bend and a big swath of unpopulated mountain range; the Salem area, most of Clackamas County (also bluing, but behind Washington County), and the part of South Central Portland that was taken out of the 3rd to make room for the Eastern counties.
You have now split up the 2nd district into four parts and diluted the Republican part of the state accordingly. The current incumbent is from Hood River, which would be in the new 3rd. All five districts now have a Democratic lean, but none are absolutely safe should a Republican wave year happen. I say it’s worth it to have the default be five Democratic districts, instead of four mostly safe seats and one where we can barely compete at all.
Now that I’ve said all that, watch us get a sixth seat after the census. In that case, I’d suggest just adding the coastal/Medford district, which takes in territory from the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th. And either splitting up the rest with the 6th district carved out of the Willamette valley and hoping for the best, or being content with five safe seats and one safe Red seat that simply sprawls the 2nd across the whole Cascade range and into Linn County.
And that’s my home state, complete for the series!