It's been so upbeat lately. An Obama nomination has begun to appear inevitable. It's been nice to feel a little more confident and relaxed.
Still, there's been a little voice inside telling me Clinton is cagey, we shouldn't trust her current happy-happy-nice-nice. But then my brain would tell the little voice, "Dude - chill! Doesn't matter what she does; if he gets enough superD votes, she can't harm him. It'll be over the 1st week in June, even if Hills doesn't admit it. OK, on May 31 the Rules Committee may give her half the delegates, but so what? Obama can get enough superD's to beat the new magic number!"
But this week, as she's harping on FL and MI, I've been getting a creepy feeling. My Hill-dar has been beeping like mad, telling me SOMETHING's up.
A few minutes ago, the last piece of the puzzle clicked into place when I read buckeyemike's diary. That diary is correct as far as it goes, but it's only half the story. The "dark genius" only becomes visible when the two halves of the story are viewed together. This is not snark, folks. I think she's preparing to do some major ugly.
Buckeyemike's diary, entitled Rachel Maddow's "Dem's Have 10 days to avoid defeat!" (when viewed in tandem with the comments that provided more detailed info) says that, according to St. Rachel, Obama needs to obtain, before May 31, enough delegates that even if FL and MI were fully seated, he would still win (which is 2208 iirc). In other words, he needs to acquire 245 delegates in the next 9 days.
Why? Because if he has that number of delegates, there will be no reason for the Rules Committee to meet on May 31 to consider Clinton's request that the FL & MI delegates be seated. However, if he has fewer than 2208 delegates -- even if he has enough that he would win if they seat 50% of the FL/MI delegates -- then Clinton can force the Committee to meet to consider her demand that they recognize ALL of the FL/MI votes.
OK, you're thinking, so WHAT, for God's sake!!!! So they meet, they reject her request, and at that point he will be the winner.
Unfortunately, that apparently isn't the way it works. If they don't agree to her request to seat ALL of the FL/MI delegates, then she can appeal. The appeal is considered by the Credentials Committee -- in Denver, at the time of the convention. So unless Barack has 2208 endorsed delegates before 5/31, making the question moot, then Hillary automatically has an official way to keep the fight going until Denver.
I don't understand the add-on schedule enough to know if it's even possible for him to get that many votes by May 31, even if all the superD's endorsed tomorrow.
However, that doesn't really matter. Because -- and here is the OTHER half of the story that I told you about above -- he's damned if he does AND damned if he doesn't. There is absolutely no way he can win this one.
Think about it: what else has Hillary been whining about ad nauseum lately, besides the FL/MI delegates? That's right . . . . She spent several days complaining about how the sexist media and the sexist Obama campaign are trying to kick her out, but by golly she's going to remain resolute . . . determined . . . courageous, for the sake of her voters. Many of us were wondering, "What on earth is she talking about? No one is telling her to get out of the race!" Well, now it becomes clear: it was no accident that the "big boys trying to kick me out" meme and the "I won't let them disenfranchise FL & MI" meme are both getting so much air time from her lately.
Think about it: What is she going to say if Obama DOES manage to pull off a miracle and cobble together 245 superdelegates by May 31st, to render her FL/MI nonsense irrelevant? At that point, she starts proclaiming loudly and angrily to everyone who will listen that Big Bad Sexist Obama persuaded the Big Bad Sexist Supers to "GIVE" him the nomination, thus disenfranchising the voters in the remaining states. And of course that means the nomination is Completely Illegitimate!
I'll admit I'm not sure what comes next in her narrative. I can think of at least three possible scenarios (none of which involves all of us coming together and supporting the Dem Party and its nominee):
Alternative #1: Oviously she, Hillary Clinton, will now have to sadly disavow the Democratic party that she has loved so much, and worked so hard for, all these years, because it has abandoned the principles that once made it great, the principles of democracy and fairness and equality for all. If the elite members of the party would use their power to deny the vote to the good people of Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico, then it is clearly an undemocratic party. SHAME ON YOU, DEMOCRATIC PARTY! You're no democrats! Hillary MUST give her supporters an alternative that they can in good conscience vote for in November. Therefore, as much as it pains her to do so, Hillary regretfully announces that she will be running on a third party ticket for the Presidency of the United States of America.
Alternative #2: "Fellow Democrats, let the party know that YOU WILL NOT STAND FOR THIS! The Superdelegates haven't voted yet; their "endorsements" are just statements of how they WILL vote at the Convention. LET THEM KNOW THAT IF THEY WANT THIS PARTY TO SURVIVE, THEY CANNOT SUBVERT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE LIKE THIS! Let them know that, unless THEY support YOU, then YOU will not support THEM in November! Get in touch with your Superdelegates TODAY, through my link at hillaryclinton.com, and tell them they must change their votes!
Alternative #3: "To all of my dear and courageous supporters: You know, and I know, what a tragedy it will be if John McCain wins the White House. But we also know how much GREATER a tragedy it would be if we support the Democratic Party in the process of selling its soul to put an illegitimate nominee on the ticket. It is with a broken heart that I say these words, because as you know I have been a loyal member of this party since my college years. But I can no longer stand by and support the party when it goes against everything I believe, when it insults voters throughout this great land by giving them an illegitimate candidate. Was it not bad enough that we have had eight years of an illegitimate Presidency? Now the Democratic Party seeks to impose that same injustice on us again -- and this time it is worse, because it is our own party doing this to us. I cannot in good conscience support this tragedy. I ask you to join with me in telling the Democratic Party "Not This Time!" in the only language it will understand -- by staying home from the polls this November. Yes, that may mean John McCain wins one term in the White House. But in a short four years, we can rise again!
I'm sure some of you will think I've gone off the deep end. But the past five months have convinced me that nothing should be considered outside the realm of the imaginable with Sen. Clinton.