A Rasmussen poll earlier last week offered a shocker of a results -- Democrat Scott Kleeb trailed just 55-40. While 15 points sounds like a big margin, it suggested that Kleeb's tough race, in a tough race, against a popular former governor, in a tough year for Republicans, had the potential to close in the coming months.
A new Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos of the Nebraska Senate race isn't as optimistic as Rasmussen.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (11/15/07 results)
Johanns (R) 58 (59)
Kleeb (D) 31 (28)
In the poll, 50 percent of voters still have no idea who Kleeb is, and being a cheap state, the Democrat will be able to get the word out. And with just 65 percent of the Democratic vote right now, Kleeb can close the margin by merely bringing those guys home. After that, it all becomes a battle for the independents.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
NEBRASKA POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
The Research 2000 Nebraska Poll was conducted from May 19 through May 21, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 292 (49%)
Women 308 (51%)
Democrats 199 (33%)
Republicans 282 (47%)
Independents/Other 119 (20%)
18-29 96 (16%)
30-44 174 (29%)
45-59 192 (32%)
60+ 138 (23%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Kleeb? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 19% 10% 6% 51%
MEN 13% 17% 12% 8% 50%
WOMEN 15% 21% 8% 4% 52%
DEMOCRATS 22% 31% 5% 2% 40%
REPUBLICANS 8% 10% 15% 9% 58%
INDEPENDENTS 16% 21% 8% 4% 51%
18-29 16% 21% 6% 3% 54%
30-44 12% 17% 12% 8% 51%
45-59 15% 20% 10% 6% 49%
60+ 14% 18% 11% 7% 50%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Johanns? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 40% 17% 10% 12%
MEN 22% 42% 15% 9% 12%
WOMEN 20% 38% 19% 11% 12%
DEMOCRATS 7% 24% 36% 19% 14%
REPUBLICANS 32% 52% 4% 4% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 19% 39% 17% 9% 16%
18-29 19% 38% 20% 12% 11%
30-44 24% 42% 15% 9% 10%
45-59 20% 40% 17% 10% 13%
60+ 21% 39% 16% 9% 15%
QUESTION: If election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, or Mike Johanns, the Republican?
JOHANNS KLEEB UNDECIDED
ALL 58% 31% 11%
MEN 61% 30% 9%
WOMEN 55% 32% 13%
DEMOCRATS 19% 65% 16%
REPUBLICANS 86% 7% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 32% 12%
18-29 56% 33% 11%
30-44 61% 28% 11%
45-59 58% 32% 10%
60+ 58% 30% 12%
CD#1 61% 27% 12%
CD#2 59% 30% 11%
CD#3 55% 36% 9%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 39% 57% 4%
MEN 43% 54% 3%
WOMEN 35% 60% 5%
DEMOCRATS 12% 86% 2%
REPUBLICANS 60% 35% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 62% 4%
18-29 36% 59% 5%
30-44 41% 55% 4%
45-59 40% 57% 3%
60+ 40% 56% 4%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 57% 29% 14%
MEN 59% 28% 13%
WOMEN 55% 30% 15%
DEMOCRATS 18% 70% 12%
REPUBLICANS 83% 4% 13%
OTHER 60% 21% 19%
18-29 54% 32% 14%
30-44 59% 27% 14%
45-59 58% 30% 12%
60+ 58% 26% 16%
CD#1 60% 25% 15%
CD#2 58% 28% 14%
CD#3 54% 34% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN CLINTON UNDECIDED
ALL 58% 28% 14%
MEN 61% 25% 14%
WOMEN 55% 31% 14%
DEMOCRATS 19% 68% 13%
REPUBLICANS 83% 4% 13%
OTHER 63% 18% 19%
18-29 54% 30% 16%
30-44 60% 27% 13%
45-59 59% 29% 12%
60+ 60% 25% 15%
CD#1 61% 25% 14%
CD#2 59% 27% 14%
CD#3 55% 32% 13%