. . . Actually, for some time.
First things first.
I'm a die-hard Obama fan, I fully expect him to win the 2008 election by a whopping, lopsided, and truly embarassing margin.
BUT . . .
He's not doing it today. That's what the aggregate polling is saying.
I got itching to put this diary together after reading somewhere today "Obama is going to win everything west of the Mississippi." Well, in the endless battle against somebody being wrong on the internets [Oh Noes! Shakes fist at clouds!], I figured I better step up and pull this stuff together.
So here it is. No spin, not much comment, just the aggregate polling facts.
I was introduced to this site while snooping around at Talk Left: the Electoral Vote Predictor. There are a number of these kind of sites out there; this guy/gal is a Democrat, seems to be doing a good job of aggregating polling data, and has some fantastic graphics . . . daily, to boot.
Anyway, here's how the Electoral College map stacks up today:
Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
Here's Electoral Vote Predictor's graphics for today:
Obama:
Clinton:
Y'all can do the analysis here . . . there's plenty to chew on.
My bigger point in this diary was attempting to see what the trajectory of the aggregate polling has been for awhile. So, I put the numbers together from Electoral Vote Predictor in Excel (oddly, this is one set of numbers the site doesn't have easily available . . . ) and coughed out a graph. These are the EC numbers for the aggregate polling data since 24 March, 2008. The top line is Obama and Clinton against McSame head to head, the bottom lines are the EC votes where they are tied with McSame---and thus could go either way:
So, Hillary's been winning the Electoral College vote for awhile. That's what getting Florida will do for ya (as well as flopping back and forth with Michigan, Indiana, North Carolina, and a bunch of others . . .). But the numbers don't tell everything . . . If/when you pop over to Electoral Vote Predictor, you can see in vivid graphic color the way that Obama is loosening up the west, while Clinton is solidifying the blue/red divide.
Now, we all know that Clinton's been claiming that Barack "can't win" for some time. If based on these EC numbers as they are and as they've been, that's not untrue. Of course, we're all expecting these numbers to turn dramatically when Clinton's out and Obama---and the Party---have all of our artillery aimed at McSame's camp. He's gonna melt like a Bomb Pop on a hot Memorial Day sidewalk . . .
But I think these numbers---right now---are a good dose of "get your ass in gear." They also represent something I didn't really consider until I saw the numbers. As much as we've been harping on the unpledged Super Delegates to get off their collective thumbs (and I've been worse about that than most), you're not as surprised by their inaction when you think that they very well might be looking at this Electoral College map. Unfortunately right now, it's not an argument to end the contest.