There has been some talk about Obama's 'white voter problem'. Can he win white voters against Clinton? Will he be able to win white voters against McCain? Yet, he still does curiously well in states like Iowa and Kansas and North Dakota, states not known for their large non-white communities. So, now that we have all sorts of exit poll data, and census data to match it up with, where does Obama do well among white voters?
So, the hypothesis is that Obama does well among white voters in states with few African-Americans. To test this, let's arrange the states with exit polls asking race and voting in order of their White:Black ratio (that is, number of non-Hispanic whites for every African American). Beside that is the percentage of the two-candidate white vote received by Obama (i.e. the percent of the white vote received by Obama compared to the total white vote received by Obama and Clinton), according to CNN exit polls.
(Also, do note that many of the states without polls - largely caucus states - are also rather white, and were won by Obama.)
GREATER THAN 20:1
Vermont 137 (61%)
New Hampshire 85 (48%)
Utah 83 (58%)
Oregon 83 (58%)
West Virginia 29 (25%)
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
W/I MOE: 1
Average white vote: 50%
----
BETWEEN 5:1 and 20:1
Arizona 16 (42%)
Wisconsin 14 (55%)
Rhode Island 13 (37%)
Kentucky 12 (24%)
Massachusetts 12 (41%)
Indiana 9 (40%)
Oklahoma 9 (34%)
Pennsylvania 8 (37%)
Nevada 7 (40%)
Connecticut 7 (49%)
Missouri 7 (41%)
Ohio 7 (35%)
California 4 (49%)
Wins: 1
Losses: 10
W/I MOE: 2
Average white vote: 40%
----
BETWEEN 1:1 and 5:1
Arkansas 5 (17%)
Tennessee 5 (28%)
Illinois 4 (45%)
New Jersey 4 (32%)
Texas 4 (44%)
New York 3 (39%)
Virginia 3 (53%)
Delaware 3 (42%)
North Carolina 3 (38%)
Alabama 3 (26%)
South Carolina 2 (40%)
Louisiana 2 (34%)
Maryland 2 (45%)
Georgia 2 (45%)
Mississippi 2 (27%)
Wins: 1
Losses: 14
W/I MOE: 0
Average white vote: 37%
(AR and TN round up to, but are less than, 5.)
----
Some comments: In states with a high White:Black ratio, Obama does well among whites (WV excepted - an Appalachian exceptionalism argument would not be tough to sustain). In states with a low ratio, Obama does quite poorly. Indeed, the 'gap' between the high group and the low group is 13%.
Without offering any more commentary, and more offering it as a chance to comment, why might this be?