There's a new Insider Advantage poll out that shows Bob Barr pulling a decent percentage of likely voters in Georgia. The poll shows Obama capturing 34.8% of the vote to McCain's 45.2% and Barr's 7.6%. 12.4% are undecided.
As we all know, Insider Advantage has consistently underestimated Obama's strength in the South throughout the primary season. There are two aspects of these Southern primaries that Insider Advantage has underestimated: overall African American turnout and African American support for Obama. Insider Advantage's current poll, on first glance, looks no different.
In Insider Advantage's most recent Georgia poll, white voters comprise 71.01% of the sample while black voters comprise just 21.93%. The Hispanic/Other grouping comprises 7.06%.
However, according to the statistics available on quickfacts.census.gov African Americans made up 29.9% of the population in Georgia as a whole in the year 2006. Whites made up 58.9%, Hispanics made up 7.5%, Asians 2.8%, and Other just .9%. Thus, as of 2006, 41.1% of Georgians were of an ethnic mintority, making it one of the most culturally diverse states in the country.
Not only that, Georgia has seen a steep increase in ethnic diversity over the past few years. From 2000 to 2006, the African American community grew from 28.7% to 29.9% of the population. If this trend bears out, 30.35% of Georgians are African American as of 2008. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2006, the Hispanic/Latino community jumped from 5.3% to 7.5%. The Asian community in Georgia saw a similar increase. Extrapolated out, as of the present time, ethnic minorities make up 43% of the population in Georgia as a whole.
There are two other aspects that make Georgia prime territory for an Obama upset this Fall: median age and level of education. Looking again at the Insider Advantage sample, just 4.9% of likely voters are in the 18-29 age group, according to their model. But with a median age of just 33.4, Georgia is one of the youngest states in the country. Just 9.7% of Georgians are 65 or older, as opposed to the national average of 12.4%. Moreover, 24.3% of Georgia citizens carry Bachelor's degrees, just one tenth of a percentage point lower than the national average of 24.4%. Time and again, Obama has done well in states that have a low median age and a high percentage of people with college degrees. In the Georgia primary, he defeated Sen. Clinton 66% to 31%, grabbing almost an equal share of the white vote as she did (44% to 53%).
According to the current
If we adjust the Insider Advantage numbers to reflect a turnout that is consistent with the current ethnic makeup of the state as a whole, we get McCain 40.44%, Obama 39.36%. And that's not even making any adjustments with regard to the age brackets. That's also allowing McCain to retain 11.8% support of African Americans - as indicated in the poll - which he most certainly will not get in a real election against Obama in Georgia. Currently, Obama receives 21.5% support among white voters according to the poll.
If Obama were to contest Georgia vigorously with campaign rallies, GOTV efforts, statewide advertising, and voter registration drives, a victory for him there wouldn't be terribly difficult to achieve. It is also important to note that there are some heavily Hispanic counties in Georgia. Obama needs to target these counties and campaign in them heavily.
My prediction is that Georgia will look somewhat like this in the Fall, if the Obama GOTV machine is in full force:
Obama McCain Barr Other
White 57% 23% 65% 10% 2%
Black 32% 93% 5% 1% 1%
Hispanic 7% 45% 50% 4% 1%
Asian/Other 4% 56% 40% 3% 1%
This results in:
Obama 48.26%
McCain 43.75%
Barr 6.42%
Other 1.57%
This may seem optimistic, but note that even with just 30% of voters being African American and with Obama winning just 21% of white voters to McCain's 67%, he still ties McCain (46% to 46%). In a "perfect storm" scenario, Obama could win by double digits.
Insider Advantage leaves us with this delectable morsel:
What makes this survey interesting is the fact that, as is usually the case this far out in a survey in a Southern state, some 12% of African-American voters say they would vote for McCain. That number almost always disappears to a negligible percent by the time the election takes place. Should Barr remain in the race, Georgia’s sizeable African-American voting population turn out at high levels in November and Obama continue to hold on to the 22% of the white vote that the poll indicates, then Georgia could be highly competitive and a new swing state, replacing others that have been critical in recent years. While Georgia is now the nation’s 9th largest state, it was ranked 10th after the last census. Regardless it obviously holds a large number of what could be critically important electoral votes in November.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.c...
http://quickfacts.census.gov/...