Having exhausted her avenues to close the pledged delegate gap, and with all signs pointing to the likelihood of no more than half-seatings for FL and MI, Hillary has only one avenue remaining to victory. She must have a superdelegate coup tsunami - a massive shift in her favor from the remaining Supers. Her only argument left, now brings us back to where we began this contest, inevitability.
Hop below the fold for the memo and a trip down memory lane.
Just to show how the new line is really the oldest of the old lines, I thought I would put them side by side for comparison:
May 28, 2008
That is why I continue in this race: because I believe I am best prepared to lead this country as President — and best prepared to put together a broad coalition of voters to break the lock Republicans have had on the electoral map and beat Senator McCain in November.
July 9, 2007
The bottom line? Hillary’s electoral strength has grown in the last quarter and she is better positioned today than ever before to become the next President of the United Sates. Recent polls have her at or near 40% with leads of 15-20 points over her nearest competitors.
May 28, 2008
Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that have been critical to victory in the past two elections. From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take back the White House.
July 9, 2007
Despite unprecedented early publicity for all the candidates, Hillary’s support in the last few months has strengthened nationally, in key states and in the general election.
May 28, 2008
I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. I’ve enclosed a detailed analysis of recent electoral and polling information, and I hope you will take some time to review it carefully.
July 9, 2007
And in the primary states with the most delegates (Florida, New York, California, Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio), Hillary has an overwhelming lead.
Florida – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 43 / Obama 16 / Edwards 11 / Richardson 2
California – PPIC June 12-19: HRC 41 / Obama 25 / Edwards 12 / Richardson 3
New York – Siena June 18-21: HRC 43 / Gore 19 / Obama 11 / Edwards 9 / Richardson 1
Ohio – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 40 / Edwards 12 / Gore 12 / Obama 12
Pennsylvania – Quinnipiac June 18-25: HRC 32 / Obama 18 / Gore 16 / Edwards 7
Texas – Texas Lyceum April 26-May 7: HRC 33 / Obama 21 / Gore 10 / Edwards 8 / Richardson 3
July 9, 2007
As observers like Charlie Cook have pointed out, Hillary has the coalition of support (women, strong Democrats, lower, middle-income and working families, Hispanics and African-Americans chuckle chuckle) that has traditionally won Democratic primaries. The profile of voters supporting other contenders, according to Cook, resembles the "support profiles of Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Bill Bradley in 2000. The numbers are splashy and significant but not sufficiently broad-based to capture a nomination."
Sorry, the chuckle is mine. Just couldn't resist.
May 28, 2008
I hope that in the time remaining, you will think hard about which candidate has the best chance to lead our party to victory in November. I hope you will consider the results of the recent primaries and what they tell us about the mindset of voters in the key battleground states. I hope you will think about the broad and winning coalition of voters I have built.
July 9, 2007
General Election
And every major poll now shows Hillary leading Rudy Giuliani. In the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Hillary has a 2.4 percentage point lead, an improvement of 7.8 percentage points in the last three weeks.
Come on supers, the polls show her leading Giuliani!
Seriously though, they tried to pull this inevitability thing once before, and a lot of democratic insiders bought it, but now it just looks ridiculous. And yet she is asking to be handed the nomination based on the exact same reasoning, the logic of polls. And so the candidate who hasn't been attacked by the GOP since the end of February, and hasn't been attacked by any opponent since the IN/NC primaries 3 weeks ago points to meaningless polls and asks you to give her once failed inevitability just one more chance. I fear we already know how this ends.