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Robert Creamer at HuffPo details statistical models from http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ which show:

If the election were held today - before the campaign begins - polling shows that he would have very high odds of winning states with 273 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win election. More importantly, he would win this victory without needing the states of Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia or Florida.

And we discuss after the jump.

This needs to be disseminated because of the rewriting of the Electoral Map, which Obama's politics implicitly promised.

So all those "caucus" states that Hillary sez don't matter? They matter HUGE since it's ground game, baby.

Someone give Bill Clinton a throat lozenge. He's gonna need it.

As Creamer notes this is before the GE:

A

s the campaign begins, the model predicts that 22 states, with a total of 273 electoral votes, will go for Obama. These include the obvious states of California, New York, Illinois, Washington, Oregon and most of New England. They also include swing states like New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. As it happens, the model predicts that Obama's odds of victory are no lower than 63% in any of these states.

But the model also shows that a number of additional states are right at the tipping point for Obama. Obama's odds of winning Ohio's additional 20 electoral votes are about even, at 49.8%. His odds in Nevada are 46%. His odds in New Hampshire are 45%. If he adds these three states, his total increases to 302 electoral votes.

The tipping point is easily reachable with the GOP in disarray. How do the folks at the web site do their models...for those of you interested in the techie details:

The model is based on a regression analysis of recent polling and sixteen additional political and demographic factors. It assigns a likely vote spread and the numerical odds that a particular candidate will win the state. The model updates its findings regularly based on recent polling data from the state.

Seems like we need this since of the "claims" that only Hillary can win California and other laughable sentiments. There are states that, if you will be conservative about it, "lean" Democratic. So they are going to end up in the Dem column unless the campaign is utter crap.

So this is how we roll.

Originally posted to Belvedere Come Here Boy on Thu May 29, 2008 at 05:46 AM PDT.

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