Robert Creamer at HuffPo details statistical models from http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ which show:

If the election were held today - before the campaign begins - polling shows that he would have very high odds of winning states with 273 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win election. More importantly, he would win this victory without needing the states of Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia or Florida.

And we discuss after the jump.

This needs to be disseminated because of the rewriting of the Electoral Map, which Obama's politics implicitly promised.

So all those "caucus" states that Hillary sez don't matter? They matter HUGE since it's ground game, baby.

Someone give Bill Clinton a throat lozenge. He's gonna need it.

As Creamer notes this is before the GE:

A

s the campaign begins, the model predicts that 22 states, with a total of 273 electoral votes, will go for Obama. These include the obvious states of California, New York, Illinois, Washington, Oregon and most of New England. They also include swing states like New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. As it happens, the model predicts that Obama's odds of victory are no lower than 63% in any of these states.

But the model also shows that a number of additional states are right at the tipping point for Obama. Obama's odds of winning Ohio's additional 20 electoral votes are about even, at 49.8%. His odds in Nevada are 46%. His odds in New Hampshire are 45%. If he adds these three states, his total increases to 302 electoral votes.

The tipping point is easily reachable with the GOP in disarray. How do the folks at the web site do their models...for those of you interested in the techie details:

The model is based on a regression analysis of recent polling and sixteen additional political and demographic factors. It assigns a likely vote spread and the numerical odds that a particular candidate will win the state. The model updates its findings regularly based on recent polling data from the state.

Seems like we need this since of the "claims" that only Hillary can win California and other laughable sentiments. There are states that, if you will be conservative about it, "lean" Democratic. So they are going to end up in the Dem column unless the campaign is utter crap.

So this is how we roll.

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### tips/recs/smell the glove(21+ / 0-)

"The poet only asks to get his head into the heavens. It is the logician who seeks to get the heavens into his head. And it is his head that splits." Chesterton

• ##### Surprisingly, he also wins without winning(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bwintx, Inland, wil5013

Puerto Rico - despite the fact that PR could very well add to Hillary's popular vote margin.

(Oh, btw, Hillary wouldn't win PR either in November, but she'll still make her popular vote argument including these non-general voting supporters in her calculations. But then again, she includes Michigan's Soviet style election in her total, too.)

I live in my own little world...but it's okay. They know me here.

[ Parent ]

• ##### PR can't vote in November, so let McCain have it.(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Elwood Dowd, kkjohnson
• ##### Kerry "Won" In Early Polling, Too(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

Don't get complacent....

• ##### You sound like you've just now discovered(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

this fivethirtyeight.com?

• ##### yep, never claimed to be as cool as you...eom(0+ / 0-)

"The poet only asks to get his head into the heavens. It is the logician who seeks to get the heavens into his head. And it is his head that splits." Chesterton

[ Parent ]

• ##### They're just ribbing you..(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Belvedere Come Here Boy

because Poblano, who runs that site, is also an active Kossack and cross posts a lot of his stuff here for us to marvel at.

Matt

In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

[ Parent ]

• ##### It's all good, was just happy to see it on HuffPo(0+ / 0-)

for all the Hillary apologists to see.

"The poet only asks to get his head into the heavens. It is the logician who seeks to get the heavens into his head. And it is his head that splits." Chesterton

[ Parent ]

• ##### Tip(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Wisteacher, ETF

Tip for "smell the glove".

• ##### He will win Ohio...because he will win...(8+ / 0-)

Stark County.  I have family there.  They are those "white, hard-working, Americans" and they are more than ready to vote for a black man.

• ##### Polls, polls, polls(7+ / 0-)

Meaningless until HRC is out.  She is still dividing the vote and weakening Obama.  Wait until she is kaput (June 4th) and then polls will become more meaningful.

• ##### that only strengthens this argument(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Belvedere Come Here Boy, petral

Hillary's pushing mightily that she's the only one to beat McCain.  I'm unsure how that works since they have the same foreign policy, but I digress.

This analysis needs to get out there.  This is important stuff leading into the weekend and next week.

Come on Supers -- imagine what Obama will be able to accomplish once the party is behind him?  Come on!

• ##### Because She Used......(0+ / 0-)

Carl Rove's data polls to say she can win thwe electorate . Now if Carl says something you know it's right !!

• ##### Just wait...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Belvedere Come Here Boy

Just wait until we get to see Obama and McAncient on the same stage.  If Obama is doing this well in the midst of a bitter battle with clinging Clinton, just wait until voters start comparing him to McCain.

If we ever get Hillary to STFU, this campaign promises to be really interesting!

It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds - Samuel Adams

[ Parent ]

• ##### Diarist Could've Used Own Words More....(0+ / 0-)

...rather than just relying on a link.

I do, as a Mtn West resident, think Obama has an excellent chance with MT, CO, NM and NV.

Well I've been from Tucson to Tucumcari... Tehachapi to Tonopah--Lowell George

• ##### Well,(0+ / 0-)
CO, NM & NV anyway; MT is a longshot.
• ##### Yes, we get on the run in SD,MT,CO, VA etc(2+ / 0-)

McCain map totally falls apart and he won't have the resources to defend OH,MI, WI

"You may be on the right track, but if you sit still, you'll get run over" Will Rogers

• ##### Flaw in Clinton's reasoning(3+ / 0-)

I suppose that Clinton's case is that she can win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc., counting on the usual Democratic base.  I think she should subtract a healthy number of African-American voters from her calculations.  If the Democratic party were to send Obama to the back of the bus, so to speak, after winning the pledged delgates, I think many African-Americans would just stay home.  And I wouldn't blame them.

• ##### Obama 50 State GOTV (3+ / 0-)

will make lots more playing room for him.

And a Democratic sweep at the state and congressional levels.

• ##### Poblano & FiveThirtyEight.com(4+ / 0-)

have raised the bar in election analysis.

It's brilliant work that we saw first, here.

Right now it shows that both Hillary and Obama beat McCain. It looks like Hillary is hurting Obama in Michigan. She needs to get behind him so we we can have a Democratic mandate.

"It's the planet, stupid."

• ##### poblano is...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Belvedere Come Here Boy

da bomb!

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

• ##### What about Romney as McSame's VP?(0+ / 0-)

Won't that put the mountain West in play b/c of the Mormon vote? This has to be part of the Republican calculus.

Of course the risk is that the Romney choice leaves the  Southern states like VA, NC, GA, and possibly MS vulnerable.

• ##### yeah, do Dobson & Fundies stay home? eom(0+ / 0-)

"The poet only asks to get his head into the heavens. It is the logician who seeks to get the heavens into his head. And it is his head that splits." Chesterton

[ Parent ]

• ##### They have Bob Barr....(0+ / 0-)

Chuck Baldwin, and possibly Alan Keyes (Oh, and Gene Amondson in a few states)

On the Left we have to get votes from those who support Nader, McKinney (She appears to have the Green line locked up), Roger Caldero or his stand-in, and Gloria LaRiva if we can.

Other than Nader, their candidates are more well-known than ours to their constituency.

• ##### If McC can't hold the Mormon vote(0+ / 0-)

without putting Romney on the ticket, he's in real trouble.

When civilizations clash, barbarism wins.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Romney may very well flip MI's 17 ev's(0+ / 0-)

which would mean we would have to win OH's 20.

• ##### I wouldn't overstate Romney, seniors knew his dad(0+ / 0-)

but going around MI saying he grew up here trades pretty bleakly with supporting Dubya's economic policies.

If Dems can't win MI with this economy, it doesn't matter if Mitt Romney parted the Great Lakes.

"The poet only asks to get his head into the heavens. It is the logician who seeks to get the heavens into his head. And it is his head that splits." Chesterton

[ Parent ]

• ##### Funny that there's(0+ / 0-)

no link to someone claiming only Clinton can win California.

• ##### Implicit in the big state/traditional Democratic (2+ / 0-)

state argument.

• ##### Oh, I see(0+ / 0-)

In other words, it was made up!

More substantively, I hope and expect that Obama is counting on winning the White House without Ohio. Sure, it's possible, but it makes your margin for error very small, especially given that he's running against someone from the Southwest, with some potential appeal to Latinos.

• ##### No,(0+ / 0-)

"made up" is Clinton saying she came under sniper fire from a school girl with flowers.

It's not made up at all.  The Clinton campaign made the argument that Obama can't win big states, and can't win reliably Democratic states, and their only evidence for that is her victories in primary elections -- like her primary victory in California.  They don't highlight the fact that California is a "big state," because it exposes the stupidity of the argument, but they are making the argument nonetheless.

Ohio is gravy.  Even with the relatively high number of racists, it's still winnable, but unlike Clinton, he doesn't have to win there.

• ##### This is wrong.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Paleo

More importantly, he would win this victory without needing the states of Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia or Florida.

Obama has to win one of those states or else it's a tie (assuming he holds the rest of the Kerry states and adds IA, CO, and NM).  I think that number assumes either NV or NH.

• ##### You're right(0+ / 0-)

The way the article is constructed, it's 269-269.  Tie would go to Obama anyway because the Dems are almost certain to be in control of more House delegations.  The additional four EVs has to be NH, because NV has five.

If Hillary Clinton wins, the Democratic Party loses.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Fox News Election Map(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Belvedere Come Here Boy

I can't stand H & C, but turned it on at the end last night as they were doing their election map. Including strong red and blue states and including states that are leaning towards each candidate, Obama has a 237-227 lead over McCain. They labelled the swing states as Ohio, NM, CO, NV, Wisconsin, VA, MI, NH. I think that's all. It was actually quite impressive and an accurate reflection of what a lot of others are saying. Obama can win without OH was their conclusion

To Care is to Hope. To Hope is to Risk. Thank you Senator Obama for allowing me to understand what my grandfather had been telling me most of my life.

• ##### Of course, in their case,(0+ / 0-)

they're trying to rally the GOoPer troops -- as in, "Pay attention, people, the Black Guy™ really does have a chance, even though we've devoted every electron [and millimeter of biased news-crawl space] we can to stop him."

Electing conservatives is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Fox Will Not Decide The "Swing States" Obama Will(0+ / 0-)

The greatest thing about a fifty state strategy is they're all Swing States. Obama is going to fight on HIS ground. Not on the ground Fox or the rest of the media tell him to. Obama will be forcing McCain to fight for states like Georgia and Texas. Forget the past. That was then. This is now. It is a brave new world.

• ##### John McCain Is The Republican Nominee People..(0+ / 0-)

He has been a part of the problem in Washington for three decades and he is saying that is why we should elect him. He is making the exact same arguments on Iraq that Bush is. He is making the exact same arguments on the economy. Even if Obama were not as great a choice as he is he would still beat McCain like a tired old drum in November. The debate should be how many Southern States will Obama take from Republicans? How many Red States across the country? Can he take Texas? Can he even take Arizona? Treating McCain and Republicans like anything but a bad joke IS a bad joke.