Today's Politico reports what many of us have long suspected--support for Barack Obama among white women has actually been going down over the past few months.
Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably, while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.
Over the same period, Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.
I think we all know why this happened.
Pew also found that among self-described Clinton supporters, the negative shift against Obama is more severe among women than among men.
This is an old dynamic.
Intraparty divisions that arise during the primary season are typically mended over the course of the general election. Bill Clinton struggled with college-educated Democrats in the 1992 primary, as John F. Kerry did with young Democratic voters in the early stages of the 2004 race. Both candidates won back these blocs in the general election.
We've been here before, many times. Or have we?
But the Democratic primary race of 2008 is without modern precedent, insofar as black support for Obama and white female support for Clinton are tied up in the symbolism of each candidate’s historic presidential bid.
"There is some sense of the visceral investment with Clinton," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist. Lake believes once the general election is under way, these same white women will gradually move away from McCain over issues, with the expectation that Clinton will campaign on Obama’s behalf if he is the nominee.
"In the long run, women will watch Hillary Clinton’s reaction, how she’s treated by Barack Obama," Lake added.
We are in shark-infested waters here folks.
I wish I had some positive ideas to suggest. Attacking Clinton is not going to help. Being perceived as participating in efforts to push her out of the race is not going to help. This is not going to seem fair to a lot of Obama supporters, given that Clinton herself made a lot of "get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat" remarks during the campaign.
I don't know if I have the best talking points.
I say I'm tired of the primary dragging on forever. (Who doesn't feel that way, besides people who would otherwise be laid off by the campaigns?) I say that I'm fine with Hillary staying in the race as long as she is civil, given that her chances of winning are slim. So far, nobody has argued with that and I feel like I'm representing the Obama viewpoint without being obnoxious.
What is everybody else doing to try and increase Barack's positives and decrease his negatives among white women in particular? What do you think should be done?