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The San Francisco Chronicle points out that California voters now prefer Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton by a margin of 13 points, larger than the margin of his loss there on February 5.  This further undercuts Hillary's assertion that she can win the "big states" (and implies that her similar "swing state" argument is also nonsense.

In relevant part:

And in a head-to-head contest with presumed GOP nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Obama does as well as Clinton, both of them beating the Republican by 17 points among a cross section of voters likely to cast ballots in November. Obama also leads McCain 59 to 24 percent among critical decline-to-state or independent voters, who make up 20 percent of the California electorate, the poll showed.

[...]

"I think voters here and elsewhere have been viewing the events of the last two or three months as the nomination battle has unfolded, and Californians are coming to the conclusion that Obama is the delegate winner," DiCamillo said. "They seem to be satisfied with backing Obama as the nominee.

"Many California Democrats are probably anxious to get the general election started and to stop the intramural battle between Obama and Clinton," he said.

California is admittedly very different from Ohio or Pennsylvania. But the argument that primary results are good predictors of general election results is absolute nonsense.

Originally posted to Reagan Smash on Sat May 31, 2008 at 11:02 AM PDT.

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