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I include some pictures of the island of Puerto Rico broken down by municipalities and districts, so you get a sense of what it looks like.

So here is the island of Puerto Rico broken down into municipalities and electoral districts:

Puerto Rico

Let's go district by district:

San Juan:

San Juan

Bayamon:

Bayamon

These are solid Hillary districts.  Watch for larger than expected turnout in San Juan and Bayamon for a landslide Hillary victory.

Arecibo:

Arecibo

Given strong NPP support in Arecibo, one would expect Hillary to do well.  But pro-Clinton NPP leaders have conceded that they are not likely to win here.  Obama district.

Mayaguez:

Mayaguez

Guayama:

Guayama

Carolina:

Carolina

Mayaguez, Carolina and Guayama are definitely Obama territories.  Watch for larger than expected turnouts in these districts for a close election.

Ponce:

Ponce

The Clinton folks expect to do really well in Ponce, but that is not clear.  The Ponce Mayor has shown hesitancy in his support for either candidate, while the two Mayoral candidates are with Clinton.  The pro-Clinton NPP machine is strong here.  If Obama does well here, he could even win.

Humacao:

Humacao

Both the pro-Clinton and pro-Obama forces admit that Humacao is a toss up.  But the pro-Obama forces seem to be more confident about getting this district.

So if you are counting, this means:

Clinton:

  • San Juan
  • Bayamon
  • Ponce

Obama:

  • Carolina
  • Guayama
  • Mayaguez
  • Arecibo

Toss up:

  • Humacao

Since districts are approximately equal in terms of population, the question is a GOTV effort.  If Hillary is strong on GOTV in her areas, and Obama is weak in his, Hillary should win in a landslide.  If turnout is normal, but Hillary does better than expected in Arecibo and Humacao, again it should be a landslide.  But if Obama does better than expected in the Clinton strongholds and takes Humacao, expect a close contested election.  (Note:  The assumption here is that the metropolitan or urban vote -- which tends to be pro-Hillary -- will be strong while the rural vote will be weak.)

The breakdown of the 63 delegate votes is as follows:

  • 36 apportioned by district via a proportional system, open primary
  • 12 at large (i.e., for the island as a whole based on total popular vote)
  • 7 Unpledged PLEOs (i.e, superdelegates)
  • 1 Unpledged add-on (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly)
  • 7 Pledged PLEOs (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly on June 21 -- these are like super duper delegates!)

Polling hours will be from 8 am to 3 pm on a Sunday, which suggests that turnout may not be high.  Approximately 1/2 of the Puerto Rican population is Catholic, the other half Evangelical Protestant.  They tend to be churchgoers and use Sunday as a family day.

Of the superdelegates, Hillary has 4, Obama 2, and 2 are uncommitted.  

Originally posted to YoSoyBoricua on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:14 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  When you say landslide (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    princss6

    how large are you talking about?  What kind of turnout is expected, and what kind of island wide margin is expected?

    The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

    by IhateBush on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:18:08 PM PDT

    •  What I've been told... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IhateBush, badlands, vbdietz, oak510

      The pro-Clinton leaders have told me an upper ceiling of +15 (unlikely) and a lower ceiling of +4 (most likely).

      The pro-Obama leaders have told me an upper ceiling of +7 (unlikely) and a lower ceiling of a tie (unlikely).  They concur with the pro-Clinton folks except they think it will be within 4 points.

  •  Anglos? (0+ / 0-)

    ae there enough anywhere to make a difference in a low turnout?

    •  Not really (0+ / 0-)

      There are a lot of American executives on the island, but I am not sure that their vote will make much difference on the final outcome.

      •  Why should urban areas be for Hillary (0+ / 0-)

        and rural areas for Obama...the exact opposite of what we see in the States.  I know there is no Appalachian vote in Puerto Rico, but still I don't see the reasoning.

        With all his noble qualities...man still bears in his bodily frame the indelible stamp of his lowly origin--Darwin

        by MadScientist on Sat May 31, 2008 at 04:15:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's because... (0+ / 0-)

          The campaign here is local party centered.  The pro-statehood NPP supports Hillary and the pro-commonwealth PDP Obama.  The NPP dominates many of the major cities -- San Juan, Bayamon, Arecibo and Ponce.  Obama dominates cities like Carolina, Mayaguez and Caguas.  So Hillary has the edge among urban voters.  The PDP is stronger in rural areas due to historical reasons (the party was born out of an effort to help poor farmers gain affordable housing, good jobs, etc.).

  •  Barack the vote Puerto Rico! (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, Puerto Rico can!
    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  What's your source for this (0+ / 0-)

    I want to applaud you for attempting to explain this primary which is very difficult for most of us to gauge.  However, I would like to have more indication of your reasoning for the candidates relative strengths in the above districts.

    •  My sources (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oak510

      Pro-Clinton and pro-Obama leaders under condition of anonymity.  

      The candidate relative strengths and weaknesses fall along party lines.  The pro-commonwealth Popular Democratic Party has a base of 48% but is split for the primary:

      • 1/3 of the vote is firm for Obama (separatist, which means current commonwealth status but more independence than current arrangement)
      • Another 1/3 is firm for Clinton
      • The final 1/3 is uncertain (pro-union, current commonwealth status with closer ties to US, e.g., voting for President)

      The pro-statehood New Progressive Party is divided into Democrats and Republicans, let's say roughly 50/50.  The Democrats will mostly vote for Clinton.  Since the NPP has a base of approximately 48%, so that means a 24% firm vote for Clinton.  The Republican vote is uncertain.

      I've heard competing stories about what will happen with the pro-union vote.  I doubt the Republican vote will be compelled to come out for Hillary.

      These splits are the result of the candidates' respective positions with regards to Puerto Rico

      So if we add up the numbers, Hillary's base is around 40% (24% + 16%) and Obama's is around 16% with 16% undecided.  If we normalize the vote, Hillary would have roughly 56% support among the electorate while Obama would roughly have 22% of the electorate with 22% undecided.

      However, the polls indicate 51-38 or 50-37 in favor of Clinton.  This suggests that Obama is picking up  about 15% points in the polls from the undecided pro-union 22%.

      But all of this is speculation based on the assumption of a party-centered, not a candidate-centered election.

      This does not take into consideration, however, that the PDP machine is better at GOTV than the NPP machine.  Assuming this, the final outcome will be much closer than double digits.

      More complexity:  We don't know what the turnout will look like.  Will more people vote from San Juan?  Will the voters in Ponce who are pro-union vote Obama or Clinton?  We can raise numerous questions like this because there is little historical precedent.

      So I will go by the leaders' positions:

      • The pro-Clinton leaders have told me an upper ceiling of +15 (unlikely) and a lower ceiling of +4 (most likely).
      • The pro-Obama leaders have told me an upper ceiling of +7 (unlikely) and a lower ceiling of a tie (unlikely).  They concur with the pro-Clinton folks except they think it will be within 4 points.

      •  You're talking about polls, (0+ / 0-)

        but you're ignoring the crosstabs on those polls, which say that wealthier and more educated Puerto Ricans support Obama, whereas less wealthy and less well educated voters support Clinton. If that were the case, San Juan and Bayamon would not be Clinton blowouts, but relatively close affairs (within 20 points, maybe closer).

        Blue Jersey. All the news that slips from print.

        by Scott in NJ on Sat May 31, 2008 at 04:41:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Would the media attention on Florida today (0+ / 0-)

    have any impact on turnout in Puerto Rico?  I am figuring there are a lot of families with members in both places and wonder what the media coverage of Florida (more than the results of the RBC).  

  •  I can't tell (0+ / 0-)

    Is Caguas in the Guayama or Humacao district?

    "The mind of this country, taught to aim at low objects, eats upon itself." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

    by FishBiscuit on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:30:53 PM PDT

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