As we have seen today, there is outrage from Clinton supporters and party loyalists over the decision today. The obvious question is, what is it that Hillary and her people want? The Democratic nomination is the easy answer, but it clearly seems out of reach at this point. The race is over and after 6/3, many of the undeclared Supers will come out for Obama. But.. even if 100% of the delegations were seated for Hillary, she still would be losing... so perhaps she (and her team) is after something else.
So if it isnt the Democratic nomination, what else could she want?
- VP for Obama
- VP for McCain
- Sabotage/Run in 2012
- Independent run
- Hope for a Dem victory in 2008
It is not too late for Hillary to give up on the Dems and make an Independent run. She has missed the filing deadline in a few states.. but no critical states for her. The PRess would love an Independent run.. (Huge ratings, better chance of McCain win..)
In this diary, I will analyze these options, and review filing deadlines to run as an Independent in each state for the 2008 election.
Possible Options for Senator Clinton
1) Vice President for Obama- this would be possible but by "burning down the house" she isn't making friends with Team Obama. I guess she could try to force herself on the ticket, but doing so amicably would seem to work better than in a hostile fashion.
2)Sabotage/Run again in 2012- Sure she could hope for this option. She could claim in 2012 that she won the popular vote and (if Obama lost.. or even if he won and wasn't "popular" like Jimmy Carter) the party can fix past wrongs. Of course, she risks a lot here brcause Obama could win.
3) Vice President for McCain- I don't think this is possible. I think the Republicans wouldnt take her and she has been criticizing McCain steadily for the past month.
4)Independent Run in 2008- This I think is the option she is considering. Think about it.. it may be her last best chance to be President . She as rich powerful donors and powerful Democratic supporters. If she breaks from the Democratic party she can claim to be less partisan than anyone. She can cherrypick popular polling concepts (pro-war and try to be an economic populist)
5)Support Obama- could happen but seeming less likely.
Could she win as an independent? Probably not, but I am no Poblano so I can't even figure out what would happen (though commonsense would say McCain would win in a rout). But.. she has very rich, very powerful donors who have millions to give. If Obama or McCain wins, the rich Hillary supporters lose. Her political allies become less relevant. This may tempt her and her donors to test the waters as an independent. Likely many toss up states would swing to McCain, but what would happen in strong Blue states is hard to predict.
IF she ran, it may cause an Electoral College crisis.. where no candidate has 270 votes...
Then as we know, it is decided in the House... link
"Each elector casts two votes: one for President and one for Vice President. In order to be elected, a candidate must have a majority (currently 270) of the Electoral Votes. Should no candidate for President win a majority of the electoral votes, the choice is given to the House of Representatives.[5] Should no candidate for Vice President possess a majority of the electoral votes, the choice is given to the Senate.[6]"
Imagine the compromises that could occur... The Republicans could unite with some Hillary loyalists to make McCain President and Hillary VP... or the Dems could stick together and choose Obama even if he was in 3rd place. It would get ugly (but interesting politcally).
before we get too far.. is it possible?
First off, Hillary would have to get on the ballot (as the Americans for Hillary party or whatever)..
She has missed the deadline in some states and would likely miss out on some
States she has missed (or would miss)
Arizona (6/4)
Idaho 3/21
Nevada 4/11
New Mexico 6/4 (or 6/24... a little confusing)
Texas 5/8
Utah 3/17
State with mid-June filing deadlines...
Colorado 6/17
Indiana 6/30
North Carolina 6/27
But if she declared mid-June, she could get on in most states.. and the states she has missed aren't pro-Hillary states..
She would still be able to get on the ballot in every other state... including NJ, NY, PA, OH, CA, FL, MI.
Here is a link to the Federal Elections Commission document with filing deadlines...
fec
It wouldn't be hard for Hillary to find a formidable Vp.. Wes Clark comes to mind as an easy choice who isnt that loyal to the Dems, is a staunch supporter, and has military credentials. That would be a tough ticket to compete in a 3 way race. Who would Obama then choose? BilL Richardson? It is interesting to ponder...