Thanks for finally joining the reality-based community, Gallup:
June 4 is the last day of Gallup Poll Daily interviewing of Democratic preferences for the nomination, as well as registered voter preferences in a hypothetical Clinton-McCain matchup. Today's Clinton-Obama and Clinton-McCain trial heats therefore mark the end of Gallup Poll Daily reports on these measures.
Some more data below the fold.
There is no Obama bump in the polls against McCain yet:
After winning one of the most competitive nomination battles in U.S. history, Barack Obama faces what looks to be an equally tough general election for the presidency. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 29 and May 31-June 3 shows Obama just one point behind John McCain in national registered voter preferences, 45% to 46%.
In another Gallup Poll today, Hillary seems to have "mostly" kept her positive approval in the Democratic Party:
Hillary Clinton is emerging from the bitterly contested Democratic primary campaign with her public image among Democrats largely intact. More than three-quarters of Democrats (74%) still view her favorably, identical to national Democratic views of Barack Obama.
For most of 2007, 80% or more of national Democrats said they had a favorable view of Clinton. Positive views of her dipped below 80% in January and February of this year, rebounded to 85% in March, but have since been in the mid- to high 70s. Over the same period, Obama's favorability rose by 12 points, from 62% last February to 74% today. This was as Obama became better known nationally, and more people were able to rate him.
Given all her antics during this campaign, it galls me that she has identical approval ratings among Democrats as Obama does. Evidently, her negative behaviors are tolerated well enough by Democrats. I wonder if Obama had behaved as badly as she had, would he have gotten such a free ride? Somehow I doubt it. I hope our party does some serious soul searching after our "unity" movement and realize that lying, manipulation, deception, race-baiting, and arrogance are NOT Democratic values.
In the final Gallup Poll today, it appears that Obama supporters are more geared towards "change" while McCain supporters are more geared towards "experience" (duh):
When Americans are asked why they would support either Barack Obama or John McCain in November's general election, Obama supporters (26%) are most likely to stress that he would bring about change and a fresh approach, while McCain supporters (28%) stress that he is the most experienced.
Here is a bit more interesting data from this poll:
There are clear differences in the demographic characteristics of the two candidates' supporters, and polling shows that both will begin the general-election race with their respective parties' traditional base groups of voters. But what's inside the minds of each candidate's supporters at this point? A recent May 19-21 Gallup Panel survey included an open-ended question asking Americans which candidate they wanted to see win the general election, and then asking those in each group to explain in their own words why they chose their particular candidate.
The conclusions from an analysis of the results can be summarized as follows:
- First and foremost, the reasons Americans give for supporting the two presumptive nominees show that they have picked up on the nominees' dominant themes as expressed in their campaign speeches, advertisements, and public pronouncements so far: Obama would bring about needed change, while McCain brings needed experience. These themes are articulated by more than one out of four of each candidate's supporters.
- As is typically the case in presidential elections, a significant percentage of Americans supporting the two candidates explain their preference in more generic ways, centering on partisanship or party identification or ideological positioning of the candidates, and general likes or dislikes of the candidates and their personalities. Obama supporters in particular are likely to mention their desire to prevent a Republican from continuing to occupy the White House as a reason for their support.
- Obama appears to be more of a lightning rod for his opponents than is true for McCain. The data show that McCain supporters are more likely to mention Obama (in a negative way) as their reason for supporting McCain than Obama supporters are to mention McCain as the reason they support Obama.
- At this early point in the campaign, few Americans supporting either candidate mention issue positions as the reason for their support, although, as indicated above, many do say they generally agree or disagree with a candidate's ideology or platform. Among specific issues for either candidate, Iraq is the most frequently mentioned, although by relatively few supporters.
- McCain supporters appear slightly more likely to mention their candidate's issue positions or specific traits as a reason for their vote than is the case for Obama supporters.
- The most frequently occurring explanations centering on Obama's personal characteristics are that he is "down to earth" and "cares about people," that he is honest, his leadership, and his intelligence.
- The most frequently occurring explanations centering on McCain's personal characteristics are that he is conservative, his war record and military service, and his leadership abilities.
As for point #6 above, I feel in good company with my fellow Obama supporters, since I agree with all the reasons they listed to support him.