I am really enthused about Senator Obama's campaign and his chances to win in November. People here are pretty savvy about politics, and so they know that the election is won in the Electoral College. However, I'd like to make a case for the importance in of the popular vote at this moment, for this candidate, for our Party.
First, I believe that there is a good chance for the popular vote loser to be the Electoral College winner this year. It may well be Obama. It happened in 2000, it nearly happened in 2004 (it would have been in our favor that time) and current projections show it could happen again this year. Go to www.fivethirtyeight.com to see projectiions of Obama winning the Electoral College with 50/50 splits of the popular vote.
There is also an article there that discusses how the Electoral College could be skewed in favor of Obama. States that favor McCain are underrepresented (relative to there polulation) in the Electoral vote and states that favor Obama are overrepresented. A bunch of Democratic-leaning states are about to (but won't yet) lose some Electoral votes, and a bunch of Republican-leaning states are about to (but won't yet) gain some Electoral votes. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...
I don't believe for a minute that if Obama wins, but loses the popular vote, that the MSM, Republicans, right wing will be courteous. They will howl about "illegitimacy."
For this and other reasons, I believe we don't just need to win, but need to win big. There are voting "strategies" that I've heard here or elsewhere that I just don't think are appropriate to today's realities.
Here are some:
- I live in a deep Blue state, so it's ok for me to vote 3rd party (or not vote).
- I live in a deep Red state, so it's ok for me to vote 3rd party (or not vote).
- I believe the White House should be one party the Congress the other.
- My wife and I always vote the same so we don't cancel each other out.
- I'm a - pick one: (Western, Blue Dog, Southern, independent, New) Democrat, not one of them !@#$%$@# Democrats!
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Voting for the Democratic candidate for President, no matter where you are, Red, Blue, Purple, or tutti-frutti, validates and deepens Howard Dean's and now Barack Obama's 50 State Strategy. I makes the Republicans spend money and effort where they least expect to, where they don't want to, taking away from where they need to. Democrats hone their message finer and finer to people who should be their natural constituency.
Voting for the Democratic candidate for President, no matter where you are, builds the Democratic Party in your state and locale. It pushes the turnout for the rest of the ticket. It employs the principle of social proof, which is to say to your neighbors, "hey, some people vote Dem., and they don't even have horns."