Let's play connect the Dots after reading the Tea Leaves on Tonight's NBC/WSJ Poll due out at the newscast.
Dot #1 via First Read
which presidential candidate -- McCain or Obama -- has the clear advantage right now heading into November? Be sure to tune into NBC Nightly News or click onto MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET for the answer from our newest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Dot #2 via First Read
Here's one question from today's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that we're releasing early: 59% say it's more important to have a president who will focus on progress and moving America forward, versus 37% who would rather the president protect what has made America great.
I think that's a repharsing of the Change vs. Experience question though some "confused" Goopers might of mistook it to mean Reform... I really think that 59% is closely tied with the concept of Change...
My thinking is that tonight's NBC/WSJ poll could be the first real break out poll. Generally speaking, tracking polls have shown modest motion through the primaries, with Gallup and Rasmussen being essentially tied in the McCain vs. Obama numbers throughout the spring and early summer so far. That all changed this week when both Gallup and Rasmussen picked up a strong uptick, between 6-8% for Obama solidly.
Snapshot polls have tended to be much more dramatic in their effect and perception of the race and I am looking forward to seeing tonight's poll because it could show Obama doing several things:
- Breaking through 50% solidly for the first time
- Breaking through the 10% Bounce Benchmark set out by Clinton Veep Proponents
- Holding John McCain near 40%
It's entirely possible that tonight's poll could be:
Obama 55%
McCain 41%
That's my early gut read on this.... Anyone wish to make a prediction?
Gallup now out right at noon showing the lead is stable:
This marks the third consecutive day that Obama has held a significant lead, as he enjoys a modest boost in support following Hillary Clinton's decision to concede the nomination. Obama's six and seven percentage point advantages over McCain in recent days have been his best to date.
Obama: 48%
McCain: 42%