Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 15 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole list of Oscar nominees. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
California, Part Two (Southern Cal House Districts, and Redistricting plan) continues below the cut.
They Really Like Me! Hey, check me out! California part one got picked by the diary rescue rangers, the first entry in this series to get their attention! California must be a super-cool state! Part one is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
It was pointed out in the comments to Part One (by people who know better than me) that California's legislature is...a little bit special. They require a 2/3 majority to do a lot of things, including pass the budget, and so increasing our majority here IS important after all. Two new Senate seats and one in the Assembly would do it. (I'm spinning my head at the thought of a Republican minority sitting on its ass and saying "nyet" to any and all budgets, while campaigning against "the Democratic legislature that won't get anything done". Now pay attention to what I said about reaching beyond the urban base...
Part 2 takes us to the Congressional districts of Southern California, and a plan for redistricting that will reduce GOP strength to around 15 red-favored districts from the 19-20 they have now.
First, here again is the link to the Caltics diary ranking the California House races. http://www.calitics.com/...
Most of them are here in the southern half of the state, and most of them are currently held by Republicans. Although incumbents on both sides were protected by the existing map, most of the GOP districts surrounding LA are R + 3 to 6, while the DEM districts are closer to D+15. This is something to keep in mind during the next round of redistricting, as well as a harbinger of things to come as the region continues to blue. Latino immigration is the 600 lb gorilla, and you can expect to see several more Loretta Sanchez-style success stories in the denser Orange and San Diego counties over the coming decades.
A Note on candidates in "hopeless" districts: Many of the GOP-held districts here and elsewhere in America are "not currently on the map" in terms of likelihood of flipping. And yet, there are brave, heroic Democrats who have stepped up to the front lines and agreed to offer the voters a choice. They will contribute their own money and time. They will knock on doors in unfriendly precincts. They will smile gamely and tell you they are in it to win it. The DNC and DCCC will blow them off, making the "wise business decision" to concentrate on districts that are more competitive. Everyone expects them to lose.
And yet they do it anyway. So that the red districts will not go uncontested. So that the guy who won last time with 75% of the vote will maybe get only 70% this time. And maybe 68% the time after that. So that, one step at a time, the district may change---which it certainly won’t if there’s nobody at all to carry our banner.
And, who knows? There just might be a surprise. Already, we have candidates like Bob Lord in AZ-3, Don Betts in KS-4, and Josh Segall in AL-3, who started out this year’s campaigns as quixotic "not on the map" contenders in "not on the map" districts—and, what do you know? They’re doing the right fundraising, the right campaigning, spreading the right message...and those districts are all now very much on the map and getting national attention. Any one of these Southern California districts could, too.
Newt Gingrich ran in a "safe Democratic district" in a "safe Democratic State" against a veteran unstoppable Democratic incumbent, at a time when Georgia SHOT Republicans. And he predictably got his ass kicked once, twice, three times, and kept coming back for more. It wasn’t till his fourth consecutive try that he finally got his nose in the tent, and went on to contribute to changing the voting habits of his district, his state, and a whole lot of the South. Obviously, I’d have preferred for him to have become discouraged and given up politics after the first two whuppings, but if a repulsive toad like Newt can do that, then so can the good guys.
Please take a moment to consider the heroism of the Gilda Reeds, the Jackie Conaways, the Steve Youngs, who step up to be our Davids against the Republican Goliaths, so that a district will be contested.
And, I never thought I’d have to ask, but—please think hard before making fun of such candidates, or actually urging others in the netroots to blow off their races. In many cases, the netroots are all the support these candidates have. We owe them a debt of gratitude. Maybe the quixotic gadfly candidate you blow off today, who gets discouraged and leaves the arena for good, could be the potential progressive answer to Newt.
Think it over. I’m not saying you have to spread out the money and send it to people you don’t even know, cutting off the most competitive takeover opportunities in the process. But a few words of thanks and encouragement can go a long way.
District 23—Lois Capps (D). This district, based in Santa Barbara, is one of three blue outlying districts (the others are the 43rd and 47th). Safe Dem.
District 24—Marta Jorgensen (D) v. Elton Gallegly (Inc. R). Inner Santa Barbara and Ventura. Gallegly tried to retire in 2006, and couldn’t even do that right, so the good people of his district may be ready for a change. If so, the one to take his place is Marta Jorgensen.
And I’m proud to say Marta is one of us! Here’s the diary that explained how she came from behind to be the nominee here. Caltics is rightly cautious and points out that someone who went to bed thinking she wasn’t on the map and was told by the media that she’d won has some organizational work to do, but shucks! That’s what the netroots are for! It’s a moving story that proves that anything can happen. Let’s help get one of our own into Congress!
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.jorgensenforcongress.com/
District 25—Jackie Conaway (D) v. Howard "Bucky" McKeon. A red district that stretches from Palmdale east to The Big Empty. Conventional wisdom says Conaway doesn’t have a chance here, but fuck it, I took a liking to her. Read her blog and tell me she doesn’t deserve the seat. At the very least, we can keep McKeon pinned down here and unable to help his more endangered ugly Republicans to the east and west.
http://jacqueselconawayforcongress.com/
http://jacqueselconawayforcongress.c...
District 26—Russ Warner (D) v. David Dreier(Inc R). This race gets more coverage than any other CA congressional district except the 4th, and is probably our second best pickup opportunity in the state. The district, in the North LA/San Berdoo suburbs, was drawn red, but has been purpling a little as the decade has gone by, and Warner has a chance here.
http://www.warnerforcongress.com/
Now we come to Los Angeles and a string of some of the safest blue districts in America:
District 27—Brad Sherman—Safe Dem
District 28—Howard Berman—UNOPPOSED Dem. Share that campaign warchest, Howard!
District 29—Adam Schiff—Safe Dem
District 30—Henry –WaxWroth- Waxman—UNOPPOSED Dem. Support your potential reinforcements from the 24th & 26th!
District 31—Xavier Beccara—UNOPPOSED Dem. Get out the vote for Obama!
District 32—Hilda Solis—yet another UNOPPOSED Dem. Makes up for our failure to fill those two Central Valley districts.
District 33—Diane Watson—Safe Dem, opposed only by a college student.
District 34—Lucille Roybal-Allard—Safe Dem
District 35—Maxine Waters, promising to continue to make Republicans froth at the mouth and chew their own entrails in rage. Safe Dem.
District 36—Jane Harman—Safe Dem
District 37—Laura Richardson—Safe Dem. Her only opponent is from the Socialist Workers Party. Share your warchest with your neighboring challenger to the 46th.
District 38—Grace Napolitano—UNOPPOSED Dem
District 39—Linda Sanchez—Safe Dem
That was the fun set. Now we come to the equal and opposite set of districts (except the 43rd and 47th) designed to protect Republicans.
District 40—Christina Avalos (D) v. Ed Royce (Inc R). Most of the GOP districts are big sprawling affairs compared to the more compact blue districts in LA. This Fullerton-Cypress district looks more like a blue district due to the dense population, yet it still leans GOP. Even so, the trends favor its eventual bluing, considering the heavy latino immigration to inner Orange County. The 40th is sandwiched right between the two districts that the Sanchez Congresswomen took from the GOP in the 1990s, and Avalos is doing her best to do the same this year.
http://avalosforcongress.com/
District 41—Tim Prince (D) v. Jerry Lewis (Inc R)—San Bernadino suburbs and a whole lot of desert. Lewis has held this district forever, and would seem to be unbeatable. However, he has Abramoff ties and there was a lot of surprise when he decided not to retire this year, so you never know. An uphill fight, but Caltics has it ranked as a pickup opportunity.
http://www.timprinceforcongress.com/
District 42—Ed Chau (D) v. Gary Miller (Inc R). Another one where an incumbent Gooper’s ethics scandals might put the district into play.
http://www.edchau.com/
District 43—Joe Baca (Inc D)—Leans Democrat. There have been some polls showing this one surprisingly close, and so I’ll put the link to his campaign site here.
http://www.workingjoebaca.com/
District 44—Bill Hedrick (D) v. Ken Calvert (Inc R). West Riverside with a slice of Orange. Another district put moderately into play by Republican scandals. Hedrick is one of the team of challengers endorsing the Darcy Burner Responsible Plan for Iraq.
http://hedrickforcongress.com/
District 45—Julie Bornstien (D) v. Mary Bono (R). They say Palm Springs is a "gay 90s city", in that if you live there, you’re either gay, or 90. In terms of PVI, it is the least red of California’s "Republican" districts, and so, in theory at least, we’re competitive. On the other hand—Sonny Bono. Good God, THEY ELECTED SONNY BONO!!! What’s WRONG with you people!?!
Right. Calm blue ocean. I’m OK, really. Bono’s gone. His widow has been misrepresenting East Riverside and Palm Springs and refuses to go away, and so far there hasn’t been a dent in her poll numbers, just like in other blue districts like Delaware at large. But it’s on the map—prominently, in the Caltics diary—for PVI reasons and because Bornstien, a popular housing advocate running during Mortgage Forclosure Apocolypse, And she’s bringing in the money, thanks to people like you. Another David v. Goliath challenger who is doing everything she should. Will it be enough?
http://www.juliebornstein.com/
District 46—Debbie Cook (D) v. Dana Rohrbacher (Inc R), in a district that creeps around coastal LA into Orange County. Like all CA districts of this decade, it’s designed to protect the incumbent, but it’s worthy of our attention for two reasons. One, Rohrbacher has distinguished himself as one of the smelliest members in a party of skunks, earning himself an Olberman "Worst Person in the World" dishonor. He needs to get his ass kicked by a woman. Two, Cook, the popular mayor of Rohrbacher’s own stronghold of Huntington Beach, is the strongest possible contender for this district, doing everything right in a Democratic wave year, AND she’s one of us—so, it’s pretty much now or wait till post-redistricting for the 46th.
Here’s Cook’s site: http://www.debbiecookforcongress.com/
And here’s her personal plea on DK for your support:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
District 47—Loretta Sanchez (D). Our safe Orange County District, and the last of the three outlying blue districts. Until we get to San Diego. Every time I think of Sanchez, I think of the certifiable nutcase she beat, Bob Dornan, and give her a silent nod of thanks on behalf of a relieved America.
Disrtict 48—Steve Young (D) v. John Campbell (Inc R). Central Orange, including Irvine. Campbell won a special election a couple years ago and hasn’t looked back. Not really on the map.
http://steveyoungforcongress.com/...
District 49—Robert Hamilton (D) v. Darrell "Crybaby" Issa (R). Issa is a self funding megamillionaire whose overflowing coffers compensate for the fact that his personality is effective birth control. Here’s hoping Hamilton can keep him tied down in SoCal instead of bankrolling his evil henchmen in other races.
http://roberthamiltonforcongress.wor...
District 50—Nick Liebham (D) v. Brian Bilbray (Inc. R). We’ve been smelling blood in the fighting 50th ever since "Uncle Duke" Cunningham left Congress to go to prison, but so far the district is still red. It’s definitely one that can be redistricted, but for now our hopes are on Nick Liebham. Locals say he has a chance, with long Obama coattails, to pull this one off. He’s certainly easy enough on the eyes.
http://www.picknick08.com/
District 51—Bob Filner (D). One of two safe Democratic districts right on the border with Mexico.
District 52—Mike Lumpkin (D) v. Duncan Hunter, Jr. (R). An open seat in which the incumbent’s half-wit son (I want to call Junior "Duncan W. Hunter", but the initial is really a D) is intentionally trying to confuse voters into thinking he’s the same Duncan Hunter they’ve already elected before. Because he’s got no merits of his own. None. And our Democrat is a Gulf War veteran naval officer who eats trees for breakfast and can beat up Chuck Norris. Really, if the district wasn’t open, no one would be paying any attention; it’s very conservative. But maybe Lumpkin can tap into the same kind of flamboyant military charisma that "Doofus Cunningham" used to bank on.
http://lumpkinforcongress.com/
District 53—Susan Davis (D). Cantral San Diego. The other safe Dem SD district.
REDISTRICTING CALIFORNIA:
Here are maps made by the California Voter Foundation, showing California’s Congressional, State Senate and State House districts. There are 53 congressional districts, with the possibility of a 54th after 2010; 40 Senate districts, and 80 state house districts, meaning that each Congressional district has to have more people than a state house district, but fewer than a Senate district (note for example, how Senate District #1 goes all the way from Modoc County to and including Mono County, past the central corner of Nevada, while the corresponding CA-4 district goes only as far as El Dorado County).
http://www.calvoter.org/...
http://www.calvoter.org/...
http://www.calvoter.org/...
Now keep in mind that every one of these districts has been drawn to protect incumbents of both parties, and is therefore "safe Democrat" or "safe Republican" barring personal scandals that drive a Pombo or a Doolittle out of office. So look again at the ranked Congressional districts from this post, and these pages showing which state legislative districts are blue: (on the State Senate page, look on the far right hand side for a list of districts represented by Democrats).
http://democrats.assembly.ca.gov/...
http://democrats.sen.ca.gov/...
Among the "safe blue" legislative districts that intrigue me are Assembly districts 30 and 31 in the Central Valley, both of which draw from but to not match the border of CA-20, and which indicate that there might be room for to carve a new blue Congressional district in the Central Valley; Assembly district 54, which seems to be carved entirely out of the LA part of CA-46, and means that that land might not be itself unalterably red; Assembly District 61, made mostly out of territory in red Congressional districts; and Assembly District 80, which combines Imperial with part of Riverside and suggests a way to add a 3rd Democratic district from San Diego/Imperial. Also notice the vast Senate District 18 and Assembly district 34, and imagine a congressional district to concentrate Republicans, midway between their sizes, encompassing as much empty land as possible (I call this space "The Big Empty").
The goal is to take as much land that is in Democratic hands in ANY of the three maps, and use it to create a Congressional map maximizing Democratic strength.
First: Of the Northernmost 20 districts, no more than two of them should be in Republican paws, and those districts should be in the rural northeast. Currently, they have four (CA-2, 3, 4 and 19), so we’re close. If Brown can win CA-4 and hold it for one additional cycle, the job will be easy. It involves splitting up the safe 5th and making two blue-leaning districts out of the 5th, the rest of Sacramento County, any blue sections of South Placer county, and the east part of Solano County that currently sticks out as a tail from the 1st (The 1st can afford to take in one inland county, such as Trinity, or the corresponding tail in the existing 3rd). The Not-Matsui district can be Brown’s, if he wins this year, or can be drawn to include him and give him a better chance if he doesn’t. The sprawling rural territory can go into the two GOP districts.
The 11th, assuming McNerney holds it twice more, will be redrawn to be safer, by exchanging some land with other bay area districts, all of which are safe blue. It could be as simple as putting Stockton back into it.
To make one more blue Central Valley district, make the 18th encompass ALL of Stanislaus and Merced Counties (which it did prior to 2002, and then draw the 19th and 20th to look like State House Districts 31 and 30, respectively, additionally extending the 19th into territory taken from the 18th, and the 20th into either Bakersfield or San Luis Obispo Counties. Additionally, the sprawling "empty" district (probably called the 25th, but definitely not including Buck McKeon) will include large sections of East Tulare, Fresno, Mariposa and Madera, including all of Yosemite Park). That will leave a straggly district of red population centers winding down what’s left of the existing 19th and 21st, and that will be the new 21st district.
So far, we’re 21 districts in, and have 18D, 3R. Not bad.
NEXT step is to take the three "outlying" LA districts mentioned above, and bring them as far away from LA metro as we can without endangering them. The Lois Capps district (CA-23) should return to the boundaries it had in the 1990s, when Capps won safely, including all of Santa Barbara and whatever part of San Luis Obispo is not in the new 20th; it should not enter Ventura at all. CA-43 should be stretched out to the farthest boundaries of HD62/SD32, and CA-47 should similarly start at the farthest southern border of AD69/SD34. All of those legislative districts are now held by Democrats, and so we are not taking as big a risk as it might look.
Then draw enough of LA County/West San Berdoo/Upper Orange/Ventura to include the population of 15 to 16 districts (depending on whether we’ve gained a 54th total district), and make them all Democratic on the wheel and spoke model. Currently, we have 13. The other 2 to 3 will be made not only from blue land ceded by the existing 23rd, but from parts of the 42d, 46th, 40th, 26th, 25th and 24th. One option is to make a Pomona-based district that roughly follows the contours of AD61(now held by Democrat Nell Soto, if she wants to move up to DC), plus some territory to the west, and to make a district entirely out of Ventura County, including the blue parts of the existing CA-23 and CA-30. Those would lean blue but be vulnerable in a GOP wave year. The other option is to make a whole lot of snake-shaped districts that start on the red outskirts and go deep into the blue cities, including two or three that go into Orange County and touch the Loretta Sanchez district. The LA part of CA46 would be entirely absorbed in this; although it’s a question whether to divide it up among existing democrats, or make a new district for legislator Betty Karnette (AD 54), whose district includes all of that territory already and would only be made bluer by expanding it to be a Congressional district.
Finally, we can make three blue-leaning districts out of San Diego/Imperial on the southern border, where now we have two. One option is to look at the existing 80th AD, which has only Imperial, and then goes into East Riverside. We could make a district—the new 54th, if CA gets a new one, that goes into a different part of Riverside and extends into the blue parts of the Palm Springs area but bypasses Mary Bono. Another option is simply to intertwine the existing 50th, 51st and 53rd, into gerrymanders with a mild +D PVI each. Since the 50th is less red than the other two are blue, this would not be hard.
That leaves the GOP with 14 solid districts out of 53 to 54. Two in the rural north; two in the central valley; one in the Big Empty (it would have a size midway between the existing AD 34 and SD 18, including the northeast ¾ of San Berdoo, all of Inyo and Mono, and most of the east parts of Madera, Fresno & Tulare. Maybe some of the empty part of Kern, too); a Buck McKeon district going from upper LA county into San Berdoo; another district entirely within the populated part of San Berdoo and enveloping the Baca district; at least one wholly in Riverside; three in Orange, surrounding the Sanchez district (one SW, one along the northern border made of parts of the existing 40th and 42d, and the Irvine one to the east); two in San Diego, and one—probably the Issa district—with parts of Orange, SD and Riverside.
That’s 14. The all-Ventura district would be a genuine swing district that could go either way, so a 39D-15R split could happen. Definitely an improvement on the 34-19 we have now.
What? You say you think gerrymandering unseemly and poor sportsmanship? Then get behind this plan! If we wave it, and similar redistricting plans for IL, NY, NJ, and other states where we have the power, that and only that will persuade the Republicans to come to the table and un-gerrymander Texas, Florida, Michigan, and the other states where they’ve clobbered us! Otherwise, we either use ALL the tools at our disposal, or we let only the bad guys use those tools to hurt us. What’s it gonna be? If we don’t even stick up for ourselves against the fucktards, why should the voters think we’ll stick up for America against its enemies?
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...