cross-posted from Election Inspection
Obama is faring pretty well against McCain. Below the flip, we'll take a look at swing state polling.
The summary: Obama 317, McCain 221.
Defense: States that John Kerry won
Note: The U. of Wisconsin poll has Obama up 50-37, but I found the question order to be a little biased. They ask for Bush's approval rating before McCain's and before Obama is matched against McCain. Anyway, so far Obama is leading in every state where Kerry won, and only in Connecticut is he leading by less than Kerry did. Come the fall, I doubt CT will be as close as that last poll.
Red-to-Blue: States that John Kerry lost where Obama is leading or tied
A Rasmussen New Mexico poll from around the same period has Obama up by 9. However, a Quinnipiac Ohio poll from in a similar timeframe has McCain up by 4. How OH and NM poll post-Clinton endorsement remains to be seen.
Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain
I don't really trust the North Dakota poll. I'm interested to see how Florida, Nevada, and Mississippi will poll now that Clinton has endorsed Obama.
If we assume Obama wins New Mexico, the Electoral Vote tally stands at Obama 317, McCain 221.