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The ludicrous idea that votes from Clinton supporters would somehow make up for McCain defectors is merely the latest fairy tale brought to you by those same Washington soothsayers who said Fred Thompson was the man to beat and that young people don’t turn up to vote.

So reads the final paragraph of Frank Rich's column this morning, entitled Angry Clinton Women ♥ McCain?.  It is worth reading, full of the cogent observations and pointed prose we have come to expect of Rich.  I will leave most of that for you to read on your own.  In this diary I want to explore the analysis he makes of the data from the poll itself.

After an introduction in which he establishes the number of issues for which McCain's positions are likely to be anathema to women, Rich begins what I believe to be the heart of his column:

But while the McCain campaign apparently believes that women are easy marks for its latent feminist cross-dressing, a reality check suggests that most women can instantly identify any man who’s hitting on them for selfish ends. New polls show Mr. Obama opening up a huge lead among female voters — beating Mr. McCain by 13 percentage points in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls and by 19 points in the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News survey.

How huge is a 13- to 19-percentage-point lead? John Kerry won women by only 3 points, Al Gore by 11.

Ponder that for a moment.   Remember that in the national popular vote, Gore defeated Bush by more than a half million votes, and that Kerry's loss in 2004 was by 2.3%, 50.7 - 48.3. Rich ponders how the McCain campaign can realistically believe it will gain significant numbers of disaffected female Clinton supporters, given that

Even among Democrats, Mr. Obama lost only the oldest female voters to Mrs. Clinton.

 He considers the idea of massive defections to McCain to be based on the flimsiest of anecdotal evidence, the few women who have made a scene since Obama clinched.  While acknowledging the undoubted sexism and misogyny in the press and elsewhere, Rich points out that the three men most responsible for Clinton's defeat are Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Mark Penn, with the clear implication that it was the attractiveness and political skill of the first, the destructive mouth of the second, and the idiotic strategy of the third that had far more to do with the failed candidacy of HRC than did any press sexism.  He further notes that the idea of such mass defections as has been posited by the press

is itself a sexist stereotype

I think it fair to say that were the discussions about the results in the two media organizations sponsoring the poll posted here at Daily Kos, they would have appropriately been labeled "concern trolls."   The remarks were often characterized by taking some particular snip from the poll out of any meaningful context and bloviating on how great a threat it represent to any chance of success for Obama in November. There was great concern expressed in particular about Obama losing white men by 20 points, and suburban women by six.  Rich puts those numbers in some context, writing

Since that poll gives Mr. Obama not just a 19-point lead among all women but also a 7-point lead among white women, a 6-point deficit in one sliver of the female pie is hardly a heart-stopper. Nor is Mr. Obama’s showing among white men shocking news. No Democratic presidential candidate, including Bill Clinton, has won a majority of that declining demographic since 1964. Mr. Kerry lost white men by 25 points, and Mr. Gore did by 24 points (even as he won the popular vote).

 Rich also notes the data from the poll not mentioned in these discussions, data that totally undercut the idea that the poll presented a case of Obama in trouble.  Obama led McCain among independents, Catholics, blue-collar workers and Hispanics.  The last of these is most illustrative, because in 2004 exit polls showed Bush taking 44% of the Hispanic vote.  And what did the this poll's data show?  Obama was clobbering McCain, 62-28 (which Rich notes may be why the McCain campaign lists his home state of AZ as being in play).  

So why is the press offering this?  Let me offer one final quote from Rich which I believe clearly explains it:

That story is minimized or ignored in part because an unshakable McCain fan club lingers in some press quarters and in part because it’s an embarrassing refutation of the Democrats-in-meltdown narrative that so many have invested in. Understating the splintering of the Republican base also keeps hope alive for a tight race. As the Clinton-Obama marathon proved conclusively, a photo finish is essential to the dramatic and Nielsen imperatives of 24/7 television coverage.

The delegate math was such that by February 19, with the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucuses completing a run of 11 straight victories for Obama, it was realistically no longer possible for Clinton to win a majority of the pledged delegates.  Although a few people like Chuck Todd did present the math (perhaps so that the media could say they had covered it), the storyline rarely focused on it.   It was not until May 6, when Clinton held IN narrowly while losing substantially in NC, that Tim Russert laid down the marker that Clinton had lost, that Obama was then the presumptive Democratic nominee.

The media, especially on cable, will continue to seek out information they can use to push the idea of a competitive presidential race.   They will jump at any possible scandal and then ask if this will damage the Obama campaign.  They will focus on the few Democratic elected officials saying they won't endorse Obama while giving far less attention to the substantially larger number of Republican electeds not supporting McCain, because if McCain has greater problems among his electeds than does Obama, it totally undercuts the storyline of a closely competitive race.  

The election is not yet over.  After all, in politics a week can seem interminable.  Yet the indications are increasingly showing that McCain is not likely to be competitive.  Rich reminds us of some of the other information that undercuts the idea of McCain being competitive:  only 8% of those who maxed out for Bush in 2004 have so far contributed to McCain; open criticism of McCain by important talking heads on the dark side, people such as Coulter and Bay Buchanan; resistance by key figures of the religious right such as Dobson, even before the rejection of the endorsements by Hagee and Parsley; and the increasing number of highly visible conservatives such as Doug Kmiec endorsing Obama.   Add to this McCain's serious fundraising deficiencies, a Republican party not as yet healed despite their primary contests having been decided months before that of the Democrats, and it becomes clear that the only thing that has sustained McCain's competitiveness has been the soft ride he has received from much of the press.  

I view the NBC-WSJ poll as devastating to McCain.  We already know that many voters still have this image of McCain as a maverick, with the implication that he is moderate on issues of importance.  But as they learn that he would overturn Roe, that in 2007 he supported Bush 95% of the time, that he opposed SCHIP (etc.), they quickly move away from him.     He also seems to be a bit of a human gaffe machine, and his contradictions and misstatements are becoming so evident that even a supportive press is beginning to discuss them.  

McCain is totally out of his depth on economic issues.  His position on Iraq and related matters is in opposition to at least 60% of the American electorate.  His rhetoric on electoral reform is totally undercut by the prevalence of lobbyists in his campaign. These, and similar areas of difficulty for McCain, cannot be kept out of public awareness indefinitely.

Reality Check - that poll was bad news for McCain:  Obama is already doing better among key groups than did Kerry or Gore, and now he can focus all of his attention on McCain, whose numbers are inevitably going to suffer as a result.

Further Reality Check - the press wants a real contest, but may be unable to sustain that narrative with respect to the presidential race.   There are other contests on which they could then focus, such as whether the Democrats might reach 61 seats (I pick that number in order to make Lieberman irrelevant).  Such alternative narratives do not have the reach of one presidential race, but could fill some of the air time and column inches.  

Reality Check for blog readers:  we will see our share of concern trolls.  People will overreact to any story as if it were a magic bullet that might bring down Obama.  Perhaps it is the Republican 527's with which Karl Rove is working - but remember, Rove insisted the Republicans were going to pick up seats in 2006.  

The presidential election is by no means over.  But the dynamics seem in place for the possibility of a major realignment.  People have begun making comparisons to 1932:  DHinMI has written about the comparison for several months, and I know of at least one sitting Democratic House member from the South who has been quietly talking about the possibility since before Iowa.  All of the energy is on the Democratic side.  We can and should still be concerned about attempts to suppress the Democratic vote, but since increased turnout is part of the narrative already in play, it will be far harder for the Republicans to achieve such suppression without being caught by the press.  

Reality Check - if we keep our focus, if we continue to register new voters, if we put the mechanics in place for turnout operations in November, if we ensure that the slanders and distortions are immediately challenged, if we continue to raise massive amounts of money, if we challenge Republican House and Senate members even in seemingly out of reach contests and thus tie them down - in short, if we simply keep doing everything we have been doing and not lose our focus - this election season belongs to us.    It will not just be Barack Obama and whomever he selects as his running mate.  It will be House candidates like Charlie Brown and Eric Massa and Jon Power and Larry Kissell and Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye and . . . It will be Senate candidates like Jeanne Shaheen and the Udall cousins and Mark Warner and . . .  

Do not be distracted by the fear mongers.  Do not be misled by those who attempt to posit a closeness that does not exist.  Organize and work like we are behind, like the race is still competitive.  But don't worry:  we have before us the makings of a massive victory, and selected factoids such as McCain currently having a 6% advantage among suburban women are not to be feared, but rather embraced.  They represent a baseline, one from which we will ascend.

Peace.

Originally posted to teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:44 AM PDT.

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  •  I see the glass as more than half full (457+ / 0-)
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    in fact, I see McCain's glass as having several leaks, from which are oozing out his chances of making the race competitive.

    Disagree if you will with my optimism.  But do not rely upon the fear-mongering that has arisen from selective reading of the data from the NBC-WSJ poll.  I truly believe that poll represents devastating news for McCain.

    Peace.

    Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

    by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:46:13 AM PDT

        •  and being lapped up by a thirsty donkey! (68+ / 0-)

          I'm not one to easily throw out hyperbole, but teacherken, this is one of the best diaries I've read in a very very long time.

          I'm with you on all points, and the way to avoid concern trolling is to simply read the tea leaves and understand that what we're doing is working. Just keep on keepin' on and we'll see this thing through to the mountaintop.

          "A democracy is more than a form of government; it is primarily a mode of associated living, of conjoint communicated experience" -John Dewey

          by mikeplugh on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:02:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  while I thank you for the kind words (28+ / 0-)

            I don't think the diary is all that spectacular.  To me the points Rich makes are worth remembering, as it the idea of looking at data in context.  Sometimes we merely need to be reminded of the obvious.

            Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

            by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:08:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's what makes it special. (26+ / 0-)

              A lot of concern trolling goes on around here, and the tension often gets to the best of us. Rich's piece is an affirmation of our success in this struggle for America and it's the best possible motivation to keep going.

              In my opinion, this kind of diary is the kind of inspirational leadership that fuels the way forward. It's something to hold onto and look at when the times are hard an confusing. It may not look special now, but in 2-3 months it will be something to keep us grounded, focused, and motivated. The simplest discussion of a Frank Rich piece can hold real meaning down the road. Watch. I'm bookmarking this and using it later to remind people of what we're doing right.

              "A democracy is more than a form of government; it is primarily a mode of associated living, of conjoint communicated experience" -John Dewey

              by mikeplugh on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:12:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm Concern (19+ / 0-)

                by the low quality of concern trolling we've seen in 2008.  It's really pathetic.  The anti-Obama trolls came in two main types: the short, not-hardly-literate posts that appeared to come from very, very concerned posters in Eastern Europe or Asia, and the long diaries that consisted of an intro sentence followed by an extremely long cut-and-paste smear job.

                Remember the fine trolls we used to have, who would actually try to impersonate a loyal Kossack?  They'd join threads of posters and subtly spread discord.  I miss 'em.  

                And we've gotten so adept at consigning trolls to oblivion that, if this election isn't close, I worry that things will get dull around here.

                •  I'll take dull (17+ / 0-)

                  and having our country back LOL!

                  I am starting to imagine living in the real USA again.  What a concept!

                  Fox news: Proud sponsor of the "Watch `iss Ya'all" National ATV Championship in Mousie, Kentucky.

                  by get the red out on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:31:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Should LA Lakers concede already? (0+ / 0-)

                  They're down against the Boston Celtics 3 games to 1 (before tonight's game). Why aren't we seeing Laker fans labeled as concern trolls?

                  I am bothered by the vindictive attitude in this diary. It carries a "We don't need no stinking badges" attitude; that because you won, you don't have to worry about resentments at all. What do you hope to accomplish??

                  As for Ken's statement:

                  it was the attractiveness and political skill of the first, the destructive mouth of the second, and the idiotic strategy of the third that had far more to do with the failed candidacy of HRC than did any press sexism.

                  Why absolve people like Tweety Matthews for their bias? Don't you want Hillary supporters taking their anger out on the media? I'm getting a very mixed message here. Why is it so important to repeat dogma from the primary campaign even when it gets in the way of healing the party as we look to the general election campaign?

                  Overturn Bush v. Gore II, Impeach the R. A. T. S.

                  by Judge Moonbox on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:45:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Because... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...the press is a vast ocean of material. The most high profile examples of sexism in the campaign, coming from the major media personalities like Tweety, had much less to do with the outcome than the prevailing attitudes of the public, and the chess match that the campaigns engaged in.

                    The reason it's important to revisit this is because McCain is making it an issue and distorting the primary battle as a part of his own propaganda campaign. If he forces us to examine sexism more closely it will ultimately hurt him more than help him, but it also forces us to confront the role it played in the actual outcome of Democratic events.

                    "A democracy is more than a form of government; it is primarily a mode of associated living, of conjoint communicated experience" -John Dewey

                    by mikeplugh on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:14:49 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You won. Deal with it. (0+ / 0-)

                      Because... ...the press is a vast ocean of material. The most high profile examples of sexism in the campaign, coming from the major media personalities like Tweety, had much less to do with the outcome than the prevailing attitudes of the public, and the chess match that the campaigns engaged in.

                      I have not seen a Venn diagram showing that the number of primary voters and caucusgoers who were influenced by the media pales in insignificance. (It can be argued that for every potential HRC voter dissuaded because they didn't see the media sexism for what it was is balanced and more by the number outraged by the coverage; but that's not the argument being made here.)

                      The media did shape people's perception of the chess match. The media did influence how the players moved their pieces.

                      The reason it's important to revisit this is because McCain is making it an issue and distorting the primary battle as a part of his own propaganda campaign. If he forces us to examine sexism more closely it will ultimately hurt him more than help him, but it also forces us to confront the role it played in the actual outcome of Democratic events.

                      And therefore, we should do our part to reopen the wounds? I don't see how TeacherKen's diary works to prevent such "reopenure." I think it would work to our advantage--and I mean the Democratic Party's--to expose the media's actions. I've long complained that there are many in the middle who allow their belief in the "Liberally biased media" lie to distort their perceptions of the two parties; and exposing the media for what it is would give these people an important reality check.

                      Overturn Bush v. Gore II, Impeach the R. A. T. S.

                      by Judge Moonbox on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:32:17 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  And there are plenty... (0+ / 0-)

                        ...of people exposing the media on a regular basis. But fighting an all out war on the media is a losing battle. They still have the biggest voice out there and most people don't care about "he said, she said" back and forth between media types and their critics.

                        What they care about is who appears to be winning. Sexism had little to do with the perception of who was winning and losing. Sexism overt, covert, real or perceived is a part of the puzzle, but so was racism. Neither of those things ultimately was the deciding factor in this primary. The deciding factor was Hillary Clinton's lack of a post-Super Tuesday strategy. Her campaign was outmaneuvered in caucuses by Obama's ground team and the GOTV operation that excited people that something new was happening.

                        We aren't reopening wounds. McCain is attempting to do so and opening a new round of chess. The moves we make against him on this front depend on understanding the game, and while that may be uncomfortable for some it is necessary and it helps to paint the MOST accurate picture of the board. That's democracy. Informed voters make informed decisions even though they may force us to confront things we'd rather leave unsaid.

                        "A democracy is more than a form of government; it is primarily a mode of associated living, of conjoint communicated experience" -John Dewey

                        by mikeplugh on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 01:01:45 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Did I say, "All-out War?" (0+ / 0-)

                          But fighting an all out war on the media is a losing battle. They still have the biggest voice out there and most people don't care about "he said, she said" back and forth between media types and their critics.

                          Why are you assuming that would be my strategy? If I were running a campaign, I would probably take more shots at the Repubs, asking if they actually believed their own complaints, why are they masochistically begging to be humiliated.

                          We aren't reopening wounds. McCain is attempting to do so and opening a new round of chess. The moves we make against him on this front depend on understanding the game,

                          That's why I get the feeling of a mixed message from the quote in TeacherKen's diary. I do think that exposing the Republican lie will help us immensely; and I don't see what he expects to accomplish by saying the Clinton voters shouldn't blame the media.

                          Overturn Bush v. Gore II, Impeach the R. A. T. S.

                          by Judge Moonbox on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 06:53:44 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

            •  dailykos posters sometimes need to be (15+ / 0-)

              reminded of the obvious - lots of the time.  

              Republicans don't have 60 votes, and it doesn't seem to bother them one bit.

              by dkmich on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:30:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The TM needs to be reminded of the obvious--- (7+ / 0-)

                all of the time.  It's common knowledge among McVain's own GOP Senate colleagues that the man's temper is a serious problem.  One hears more about Obama's "ties" to Ayers (forget about Rev. Wright) in the TM, however, than one hears about the temper of a guy who would control the nuclear launch codes.

                We are now in day 3 of the ongoing tribute to Tim Russert, who is being portrayed in the TM as a combination of Cronkite, Murrow*, and Sevareid all in one.  Yes, he had many admirable personal qualities, and I respect the reminscences of those who knew him well.  He was, however, a major player in a media culture that is visibly failing to come close to discharging its 1st Amend responsibilities.

                On the professional level, Russert was very much of a mixed bag.

                *Murrow was younger than Russert was when he died, and I don't think that he received half the tributes, even though he was a vastly better journalist.

                Some men see things as they are and ask why. I see things that never were and ask why not?

                by RFK Lives on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:55:14 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  As someone who is new to politics (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  petral

                  thanks to Obama, I understand all the attention to Tim Russert. I only started watching him six months ago and I liked his interviewing style. But more, I loved his smile and he was sooooo enthusiastic all the time. I liked the way he started the show and ended it. His happiness shone through and that's rare, really. When people see someone doing what they love to do, it makes you feel good.

                  •  Agree, he was very likable, but being (0+ / 0-)

                    likable sometimes interferred w/his job. Although usually very good at his job I recall many instances when I was screamin' for Russert to ask an obvious follow-up question & was disappointed he didn't. :(

                    Sometimes it's very useful for a journalist to be a little detached in order for he/she to effective at bringing the truth to the public.

                    If everyone loves you, that is a definite red flag for any journalist! 'nuf said ...

            •  But the points you make are important (14+ / 0-)

              I read Rich's column before your diary, but the diary contains great checklist of "Reality Checks" that stand strongly on their own.  We should all keep them in mind as the months go on.

          •  Actually, (21+ / 0-)

            the concern trolls and the media narrative might help in the end...if everyone thinks Obama will win hands down they may think it doesn't matter if they come out to vote. It is now set in stone that Hillary squeaked out a win in NH because she teared up, but part of it was that Indies believed the Dem race was settled and thus they decided to vote in the Republican primary instead.

          •  But then there is this from TPM (6+ / 0-)

            Obama's lead narrows

            It's a long road to November. Anything can happen.

            •  McCain's media buddies leap to his aid (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Creosote, Alohilani

              That's why we're here.

              John McCain will end Roe v. Wade if he's president.

              by Phoenix Woman on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:45:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  NPR joined in the "concern..." (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Ckntfld

              NPR's Day to Day was hyping Obama's 6% deficit among "what used to be called soccer moms and security moms, and we're now calling mortgage moms" (gag) on Friday. That show really embarrasses me... I'm a longtime NPR supporter, and Day to Day has degenerated into a proving ground for blatant distortions, misrepresentations, "concern" and outright lies about Democratic candidates... It's like NPR decided it needed to have a Rovian element in its broadcast to placate the right-wing legislators who were threatening its funding.

              "In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

              by commanda on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 01:15:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mortgage Moms, Hey? (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Creosote, Ckntfld, redding888

                Well any "mortgage mom" voting Republican needs to be looked at to see if she's fit for raising kids.

                Me thinks they need a new label.

              •  NPR has gotten worse. (0+ / 0-)

                This is one of the main reasons I did not renew my subscription. They are gravitation towards the sensationalistic journalism I find so repugnant.

                It is time for a mass action email/calling to NPR. I know viewers CAN make a difference there.

                http://www.freejohnwalker.net/

                by berkelbees on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 01:49:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  They were essentially overhauled (0+ / 0-)

                  a year or two ago in a change that placed republicans in top administrative positions. The result was a drift to the right, and silence in areas where one would expect journalism or informed questions.

                  Because NPR had such durable, widespread trust, this was a particularly harmful and deviously made change.

                  Another repair that must be undertaken next year.

            •  Daily polling is worthless. (0+ / 0-)

              Any poll can show this kind of fluctuation and there has to be some campaign fatigue set in at this point. The general is off and running, but the pace is snail-like compared to what we just witnessed. There is no voting to look at and nothing scheduled until the actual election now.

              The long term trends are FAR more important as we watch now than the short term ebb and flow was during a hotly contested series of elections.

              "A democracy is more than a form of government; it is primarily a mode of associated living, of conjoint communicated experience" -John Dewey

              by mikeplugh on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:18:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  This election is where demographics (18+ / 0-)

          Overtake the Republican Party and without substantial reformulation of policy, they will no longer be competitive as a Party.

          The next issue will be dissolving the varnish that has darkened the DC media establishment and prevented it from being able to breath the air of a new century and an America that is more than what it once was.

          The elements of power will likely fail in their efforts to denigrate and dissemble about the nation's new choice of leadership.

          They no longer control the message, and the masses who looked to them for guidance, have had their numbers thinned by time.

          Their children and children's children are the elements of this new century in American politics.

          Whole generations, without any memory of when there were just three TV networks, millions never having a newspaper in their homes.

          Younger voters still, but millions of newly eligible voters, never living in a world without a computer at home, and by 2012, voters who potentially have lives their entire lives with their home connected to the Internet.

          The traditional bastions of media, effectively haven't touched their personal political lives in a meaningful way, and therefore are no more authoritative than any other news source.

          How long this period of transition will last is unknown, for rest assured, this type of freedom scares the crap out of all who wish to direct and control others.

          We must all relish this new age and not forget that we must vote for Barack Obama and Democrats from everywhere in order to see a future, built by leaders we agree with.

          Just because time and demographics are in our favor the real job has not been done.

          Electing Democrats.

          This is our job, and if we fail at this task in November, we will have squandered the best opportunity for a change in direction of this nation we have had in generations.

          Political pardons are unacceptable Mr Bush,and so is hiding your daddy's secrets behind exectutive orders,free the truth now.Econ 3.50&Soc. 5.79

          by wmc418 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:09:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's funny - I was just this AM thinking that.. (5+ / 0-)

            Whole generations, without any memory of when there were just three TV networks, millions never having a newspaper in their homes.

            ... I miss the Sunday ink on my fingers. Can't remember the last time I got most of my news from a printed source.

            "The thing about life is you always have to keep something on the to-do list." Alan Shore, Boston Legal, 2-12-08

            by va dare on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:30:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The far right is becoming increasingly desparate (0+ / 0-)

            The right-wing nuts are obviously seeing their visions of a plutocratic imperial government collapsing like a house of cards.  They're having their work dogs, the MSM, bombard the public with all of their B.S. regarding how the important groups that Obama needs are switching over to their man, McCain.  The MSM are also kept busy with aiding their corporate masters in spreading and repeating baseless smears directed against Obama and even Michelle.

            One word to the MSM and their corporate masters:  your days are numbered.  Change is in the air.

          •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

            That the Democratic party will gain signifigant control in 08... but first of all: political attitudes tend to change in Western society in cycles. We are def. entering a liberal phase now. Second: the republicans are some devious assholes.

            The key is to win this and do it right. Hopefully hold on enough to seriously damage the Republican party.. I'd assume we would then eventually see a new party reflecting the conservatives in society that would be a bit more moderate then the Republicans are now.

      •  ... water from the incontinent elephant's trunk (4+ / 0-)

        ... or whatever adjective one would use to describe a leaky elephant trunk.

        The GOP spinmeisters have been issuing their cheat-sheet talking points to the press and the press, too lazy to learn, still lap them up and print them or spew them on the airwaves with no critical thought as their editor of last resort.

        But the electorate aren't buying it anymore. We stand by eyeing them askance, wondering what the hell happened to the news media in this country.

        White woman over 50 for OBAMA!! (Endorsed 10/07)

        by Glinda on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:27:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, and wetting the tablecloth (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NWTerriD

        that I just washed! Thanks, Obama! Now I have to wash it again. Stinkin' popularity. It's all very well for you to overfill your glass, but I am the one who has to clean up your overflowing appeal!

      •  Dear Ken, (7+ / 0-)

         Since the Obama/women fallacy has been debunked, (and since I believe that most of it was caused by McCain/Republican women)  I am back to taking your Senator Webb from Virginia for VP.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Heh, I am a 53 year old progressive mommy of three and I forgive Webb for statements that he made 20-30 years ago.  I actually agreed with him about women in combat back then as I didn't want anyone in combat after losing two relatives and a close family neighbor in Vietnam.                                                                                                                                                                                                        "  My Florida National Guard SSG son and his friends have supported Obama and his Middle Eastern policies since their deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.  I believe that Webb could help Obama with other crucial "Indy's" and moderates in Florida that have felt disenfranchised for many years with the Clinton and Bush administrations for their divisiveness, their corporate/MIC ties and their nasty political ploys. (Kerry didn't get enough of them and never went after our younger voters)                                                                                                                                                                        Webb as Reagan's "Secretary of the Navy", a highly-ranked Marine, and highly-ranked Naval Academy graduate sure beats Captain McCain's "bottom of the barrel"  family pushed entry at the Naval Academy and being at the bottom of the class.  (494 out of 498?  Sheesh!)  My son can't believe that he was allowed to fly in Vietnam after crashing three planes.  (my son has his private plane license but is in law enforcement in real life for now)      peace,  mjd                          

        Catholic, white woman over 50 for OBAMA!! (endorsed 12/06)

        by mjd in florida on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:50:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  while bright, Webb nol at top of USNA class (5+ / 0-)

          in academics, although I believe he may have been interviewed for the top cadet position.

          What is interesting is what happened after his commissioning.  As do all newly commissioned Marine Officers, he went through the Basic School in Quantico.  This is where Marine officers learn about leadership. Webb won the award as the top leader in his cohort.

          And people who served with him in Vietnam, whether as superiors or subordinates, swear by his leadership and him as a man.   FWIW.

          Peace

          Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

          by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:57:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He was highly-ranked compared to McCain's (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Dallasdoc, Ckntfld, lauramp, elwior

            494 out of 498.  What was his rank?                                                                                                                                                                                                      I am just sick and tired of McCain using his minimal experience "bombing" Vietnam as his "Foreign Policy" expertise or his attempting to talk for our "grunts" on the ground.  VoteVets and Brandon Friedman talk for our military grunts on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq.

            Catholic, white woman over 50 for OBAMA!! (endorsed 12/06)

            by mjd in florida on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:09:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't actually know his class rank (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mjd in florida, ER Doc

              and of course in comparison to McCain lots of people would seem highly ranked.

              In fairness to McCain, he has studied and worked on these issues for some time.  Were his knowledge solely that of his own military experience, he would be a lot more vulnerable, given his history of losing planes and the like.  I think he eventually earned his positions, not merely because of his lineage, although at earlier points in his career that may have protected him.  

              I do not challenge his experience - I do not thing it warrants our going there.  I think we can certainly challenge his judgment, and I have no doubt that his temperament is fair game.

              Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

              by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:13:49 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you feel that a military experienced VP (0+ / 0-)

                will tamp down the McCain "false" argument?  I personally don't feel that Obama needs it but it sure seems that it might be important for our "swing" voters. (considering the McCain strategy of acting like he is a knowledgeable military person)

                Catholic, white woman over 50 for OBAMA!! (endorsed 12/06)

                by mjd in florida on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:18:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  it may or may not matter (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Ckntfld

                  let's be frank - if VP pick is Webb, the media will start to pound on his 1979 Washingtonian piece, try to argue that he only won because of Allen's mouth ("macaca") and might even raise questions about Webb's temperament because of the incident with Bush (that's between me and my son').   But if the war is an issue, including the surge, Webb has unassailable credibility in terms of what he said in 2002 and what he has said since.

                  If the economy is the key issue, Webb is actually better on addressing issues of economic equity than many people realize, since that is his great passion.

                  But I do not purport to know how Obama and his people are thinking.  I know of several in the Congress who are quietly talking Webb up.  I also know several who have reservations, precisely because he is so candid in what he says.

                  Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

                  by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:23:22 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I believe a VP with distinguished, substantive (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  mjd in florida, lauramp

                  military experience like Jim Webb doesn't just tamp down McCain's argument, but trumps it. And Webb was a Marine, on the ground in VietNam, and subsequently ranthe Navy.
                    My own preference though for VP is Wes Clark, whose military credentials are just about as impressive as it gets, and yet espouses remarkably progressive views on just about every major issue (advocate of Single Payer health insurance, e.g.), and makes those views sound mainstream when he discusses them. And Clark is also a decorated, on the ground VietNam War hero.
                    I could go on (and on) making the case for General Clark, but I'd hate to see a dispute break out between Webb and Clark supporters, as I think we've all had enough of that sort of thing around these parts. And both of these guys would be tremendous choices.
                    And besides, it's not really up to us, is it?

                  "We the People of the United States..." -U.S.Constitution

                  by elwior on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 12:08:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I agree with you, mjd (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ckntfld, mjd in florida, elwior

          While I think Obama has a lot of good VP choices, Webb seems the best.  Some of the top reasons:

          1. He could take on the attack-dog role against McCain and the Republicans with devastating effectiveness, as he shot down Bush's SOTU last year.  
          1. His economic populist message resonates with the working class voters Obama needs to connect with, and would help reinforce that message in Obama's own rhetoric.  
          1. He helps to bring VA to the top of the swing-state list, and may well help in neighboring states like WV and NC as well.
          1. He completes the ticket with military and Washington-insider credentials Obama lacks or is light on.
          1. He's taken everything the Republicans can throw at him and won in their territory.
          1. He knows the Pentagon, and would be well-placed to oversee the thorough house-cleaning so desperately needed there.

          I'll trust Obama's judgment, and admit that Webb may have skeletons none of us know about that might prevent his choice.  But as things look now, it's hard to see how Obama could choose better.

          Hanoi didn't break John McCain, but Washington did.

          by Dallasdoc on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:48:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Speaking of the V.A. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mjd in florida, lauramp

             I think that's a prime spot for a GOP appointment in the person of Chuck Hagel. While Hagel is possibly the most honorable GOP Senator, I'd flatly reject the notion of placing him on the ticket, as we don't want a Republican, even the best of them, a heartbeat away from the Oval Office.

            "We the People of the United States..." -U.S.Constitution

            by elwior on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 12:17:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I like this (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mjd in florida, elwior

              I also think that the Secretary of Defense and Homeland Security need to be Democrats. Appointing Republicans just validates the claim that Democrats are "weak" on national security. So the VA is a good choice for Hagel or another Republican.

              Hope is passion for what is possible. -- Soren Kierkegaard

              by lauramp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:48:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  If they're not progressive Democrats (0+ / 0-)

                then we'll never be done with this craziness.

                •  don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Creosote

                  Now only progressive Democrats are allowed to be in the Cabinet? I think that Obama should look for the best people for the job, and no these are not all going to be progressives. One of his strong suits is finding people of genuine goodwill who have different political views to work with on common interests.

                  Politically, however, the two posts I mentioned should not be given to Republicans.

                  Hope is passion for what is possible. -- Soren Kierkegaard

                  by lauramp on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 10:19:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Thanks for mentioning people of good will (0+ / 0-)

                    and trustworthy experience. What you're saying makes sense and is a more effective way of looking at things.

                    I'd of course prefer an FDA and BLM, for example, whose adminstrators protect health and public lands rather than savage them.

          •  Well, he still thinks the war in Vietnam was a (0+ / 0-)
            •  Webb thinks the war in Vietnam was a good idea (0+ / 0-)

              sorry.(trigger finger there)

              I don't really want him to be president, so much.

              Because I think that speaks volumes.

              •  fwiw - so does Jim Webb (0+ / 0-)

                I remember at his first big fundraiser, with Mark Warner, at which if memory serves he raised 375,000 - it was in the building where he has his writing office and from which he looked out to see the devastation whose impact he had felt when the plane hit the Pentagon - he recognized a man who had been in the Vietnamese military, and talked about our ARVN allies.  He made the point that he thought Vietnam had been worth fighting for, although he also acknowledged that most of those supporting him did not agree.

                Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

                by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:10:08 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  The water in the glass is trickling down (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      teacherken, mikeplugh

      to the floor.

    •  It really helps to have a good candidate, too n/t (7+ / 0-)
    •  It was great reading this analysis (13+ / 0-)

      right after reading the actual column. I'm hoping eventually the media narrative will turn to show much trouble McCain really is in.

      You hit almost all the high points of the article, but left out my favorite part -- when he mentions that even McCain's mother doesn't thing he has that much of a chance and that Repub voters will have to "hold their noses" to vote for him!

      All stressed out and no one to choke. -6.00, -6.31

      by billssha on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:03:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  McCain defeats himself in poll (17+ / 0-)

      I thought this was the most telling information from the MSNBC/WSJ poll: During the three months after McCain wrapped up the nomination and had the field to himself (while the Dems were supposedly destroying themselves) he actually LOST GROUND to himself!

      In March, after McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination, his fav/unfav stood at 49%-27%. Later that month, it was 45%-25%. In April, it was 40%-30%. And now it’s 39%-34% -- that’s a drop of 10 points in his fav rating.

      The more people get to know McCain, the less they like him. Bring on November!

      •  Does video exist of McCain's horrible joke (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        javelina, elwior, Gemina13

        he told about Chelsea Clinton back in the 90's?

        If so, his remaining support among white suburban women will crumble like a stale cookie once the tape starts getting replays.

        In John McCain we have the opportunity to experience Bush's Third Term.

        by Sam I Am on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:39:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Further, media matters wrote Friday (11+ / 0-)

      that the "White Suburban women" sample that has been so regularly yakked about on cable t.v. is based on an absurdly small sample and has a 10-pt. margin of error.

      I suppose if the media WANTS to find a problem with Barack and women, it can always make it up.

      John McCain: The only mavericky straight-talker surrounded by corporate lobbyists

      by atrexler on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:02:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  McCain's glass is full (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MHB, katienne

      of dentures and polident

      "In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase

      by julatten on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:57:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In filling our glass, every drop counts (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Esjaydee, bluesheep, NWTerriD

      We have every reason to hope for a historic realignment in this election.

      At the same time, rather than feeling confidence, we should be defining goals that - with great effort - can be achieved and that can cement that realignment.

      61+ Senators is such a goal. The difference between 59 (or 60) and 61 is huge: not just one Senator, but (with discipline) the power to actually legislate.

      Therefore, the good news from the polls should prompt us to strive even harder for an overwhelming victory. These opportunities do not come along often, and there is so much to do to clean up after Republicanism and move this country forward.

      If our goal posts are truly positioned at the end zone (both the White House and effective majorities on Capitol Hill), every inch counts.

      Democrats: Members of the Democratic Party working to advance democracy; Republicons: Members of the Republicanist Party working to advance Republicanism

      by word is bond on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:15:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think McCain will implode (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NWTerriD

      And your analysis is great.

      Thanks for another wonderful diary.

    •  your comment, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      teacherken, lauramp, NWTerriD

      Further Reality Check - the press wants a real contest, but may be unable to sustain that narrative with respect to the presidential race.

      is borne out by the way the MSM was forced, after the IN/NC primaries, to abandon the "Primary photo finish" narrative that they had been nursing despite Clinton's refusal to admit the obvious.

      Perhaps, after that little lesson, they will be a bit more willing to face reality a bit sooner in this race.

      "Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." -Nancy Pelosi, 6/29/07.

      by nailbender on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:05:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  we can only hope n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

        by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:09:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  ooops! you made that point in the diary! (0+ / 0-)

        The delegate math was such that by February 19, with the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucuses completing a run of 11 straight victories for Obama, it was realistically no longer possible for Clinton to win a majority of the pledged delegates.  Although a few people like Chuck Todd did present the math (perhaps so that the media could say they had covered it), the storyline rarely focused on it.   It was not until May 6, when Clinton held IN narrowly while losing substantially in NC, that Tim Russert laid down the marker that Clinton had lost, that Obama was then the presumptive Democratic nominee.

        sorry for the gloss.

        "Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." -Nancy Pelosi, 6/29/07.

        by nailbender on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:10:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  no problem - a lot of words in the diary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nailbender

          and an equally large number of ideas.  Understandable if you did not immediately grasp all of them.

          Peace.

          Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

          by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:15:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  happy father's day, at any rate, ken, (0+ / 0-)

            and if you aren't a dad, you're at least a father figure to many of your students, I'm sure.

            "Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." -Nancy Pelosi, 6/29/07.

            by nailbender on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:26:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If I remember (0+ / 0-)

              Ken is a dad. Your daughter's picture with Obama is now on my desktop for my laptop. It is a great conversation starter.

              http://www.freejohnwalker.net/

              by berkelbees on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:00:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  not of any humans that I know of (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Creosote, nailbender, Colorado Billy

                and since Leaves on the Current and I have been togethe r since 1974, I think I might know.

                Five rescued cats own us.  And at any given moment during the school year I have something in excess of 120 students in my care -  there have been years when my classroom was full all 6 periods and I also had soccer or musical theater that the number would approach 200.

                My own father died more than a decade past, but my f-i-l is still going strong in his late 70s.

                Peace.

                Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

                by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:59:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  then wrong memory. Must be age..nt (0+ / 0-)

                http://www.freejohnwalker.net/

                by berkelbees on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:04:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks teacherken! (0+ / 0-)

      That was informative, thoughtful, uplifting... as always.

      Peace, indeed.

    •  This year is like Coke vs. New TAB (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NWTerriD

      As Tracy Flick points out in "Election", Coke spends more money in advertising each year than any other company.

      Now, while I don't vouch for the accuracy of that statement, in this real-life election, Obama has to act like Coke and approach the race as if he is trailing the "reinvented" McCain. Outspend, out-organize, and send the new TAB to its home in soft drink heaven.

      Ain't nothin' like the real thing, baby.

      Nov. 4, 2008. Let's get ready to rumble.

      by trmasonic on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:54:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  MSM-journalist-as-concern-troll - brilliant! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Creosote

      Whew, does that ever nail the situation on the head! Thanks, teacherken.

      "I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington...I'm asking you to believe in yours." - Barack Obama

      by Wordie on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 12:33:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How Did White Guys... (0+ / 0-)

      ... ever become so fucking dumb?

    •  I see hemmoraging before this is all over. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Creosote

      McCain is going to keep stumbling, and only the most deluded "LA LA LA LA LA" [hands in ears] people will vote for him.

      Join us in the Grieving Room on Monday evenings to discuss mourning and loss.

      by Dem in the heart of Texas on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:55:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Excellent Diary (0+ / 0-)

      Thank you for writing it.  I read Frank Rich's article just an hour ago. I have to say the article lifted my spirits.  When listening to the TV pundits one would think Obama barely has a chance...

  •  Rich hits it out of the ball park once again. (26+ / 0-)

    Reading his op-eds is one of my favorite Sunday activities. But today, Kristof's op-ed on the use of rape as a basic way of waging war as opposed to a by-product of war, and how this is being ignored by the international community, is even more impressive, and devastating. Link:

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    I recommmend both op-eds, but please don't miss Kristof's.

  •  The reality is (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MHB, Wufacta, desertguy, Owllwoman

    that polls don't mean a whole lot.  We might as well be using the Oracle of Delphi method to predict elections.  Putting too much faith in polling data is just one more way Dems deceive themselves on their way to their quadrienniel self immolation.  A better way is to talk to people yourself, not just the people around you, but ramdom people you feel might be approachable.  If I only listened to the people around me, I'd believe that Obama will lose in a most magnificent way.  Personally, I'm not so sure about that.

    Always ask yourself: WWDD

    by karesse on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:59:38 AM PDT

  •  as old as "throw the bums out "is,its true (8+ / 0-)

    Women,men of all race,class,economy want to clean house. Mc C has nothing to offer that might influence the electorate to do differently.

    •  I have to agree. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eddienic, dolphin777

      Even though there may be a few Clinton supporters that will go with McCain, I believe most will take one look at McCain's record and his policies and will want to throw the bum out.

      "Those that know, don't say, those that say, don't know"... Tao te ching... Then why am I posting a comment?

      by zenmasterjack on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:17:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hawai'i caucus showed how strong BO is!! (7+ / 0-)

    I'm pissed off no end (but not surprised) to learn that Hawai'i Gov. Linda Lingle strongly in McSame camp!

    Once again she shows she's a Repuke sockpuppet. A local blog points out since she's term-limited, her second-in-command hopes to run for his own term -- (Duke Aiona) but that allying with Bush/McSame will certainly hurt Duke's chances in gubernatorial contest!!

    I'm not only hoping for a BO landslide in November, but would like to see a strong candidate come outta Hawai'i Dem organization to take back our state's leadership.

    Aloha   ..  ..  ..

  •  Reminds me of '96 (26+ / 0-)

    The still fairly young and very sharp Bill Clinton, running against a man who even then was a fossil of GOP yesteryear, a parody of himself, so old and out of it that he spoke of himself in the third person, promising a return to the 1940's or something, back when things were just right, before all these persnickety liberals up and ruined it all for hard-working real Americans and their Lawrence Welk 78's and Ovaltine or something.

    Well, that's sort of what McCain is this year, a deliberate throwback to some mythical idyllic age, when good, decent, upstanding white Christian men ran everything, and their pretty little wives stood behind them and kept their pretty little mouths shut and smiled pretty little smiles, and everyone else (hint hint) knew their place and didn't cause any trouble for anyone--let alone some uppity, snot-nosed little Ivy League know it all shit.

    Well, those days are OVER, no matter how hard the far right's been trying to deny it and bring us all back to that stupid era, when if you weren't a white male, you were nothing. And the vast majority of Clinton supporters will vote for Obama because, even though they might be unhappy about her loss (and I would too if I had supported her), they will know this as surely as they know anything. McCain represents the past--much of it simply not worth preserving--while Obama represents the future--much of it well worth voting and fighting for.

    It's really as simple as that. This year's election, by and large, is a referendum on the past, present and future. And the country, by and large, doesn't like the present, doesn't want to revisit the past, and just wants to move on, into the future that it was painfully and needlessly denied these past 7+ years. They just want to move on, and McCain wants to stay where we are, or worse, move us back, while Obama's all about the future. Call that empty rhetoric, but it's what wins elections. People vote for politicians who move and inspire them, not ones who make them feel like crap and tell them how terrible things are.

    And anyway, everyone knows that...

    And we'll be right back...

    by kovie on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:25:12 AM PDT

  •  It's about time that all the feminists realized (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave Brown, MHB, ShadowSD, 3O3, MariaWr

    women can think.

    And anyone who can think can recognize bullshit when they hear it.

    And if you can recognize bullshit when you hear it, you can't switch from Hillary to McCain.  It doesn't make any sense.

  •  Thanks for this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, peraspera, NWTerriD

    I forgot about Rove and the 527's.  KKKarl is no genius, his track record is not that great

    You Sacrifice the Thing You Love the Most. I Love My Guitar - Jimi Hendrix

    by jds1978 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:29:48 AM PDT

    •  Although I did hear him (Rove) say on Faux News (0+ / 0-)

      a few minutes ago that McCain is the challenger & Obama the clear front-runner. Didn't seem like he was playing an expectations game either, in the context in which he said it.

      Onward to the Mountaintop!

      by NWTerriD on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:58:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wouldn't get too crazy about the polls right (9+ / 0-)

    now. I remember Michael Dukakis ahead by double digits in the summer over an incumbent vice president. I am one of the few here who remember Dewey kicking Truman's ass before the '48 election. The summer is for vacation, forgetting about our miseries and trying to enjoy ourselves. Human beings need a break from the obsessive daily ruts that drive us. Presidential polls in the summer just feed an addiction to give political junkies their fix. Polls before the party conventions are pretty much meaningless. It maybe that the gulf between Obama and McCain regarding women voters will remain all the way through to the election, but how many average Americans are really focused on the presidential election before the conventions. After the loooooong, loooooong, loooooong primary season, I think people are taking a break from it all.

    You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war..... Albert Einstein,

    by tazz on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:32:22 AM PDT

  •  Nielsen imperatives? (0+ / 0-)

    Could someone explain this one to me?

    essential to the dramatic and Nielsen imperatives

    thanks.

  •  Ouch, reality bites. Leave (11+ / 0-)

    it to Frank Rich to tell the truth, and I can't thank him enough.

    When I read those poll numbers in its entirety, I thought to myself, where is the disconnect here? Why were the talking heads not talking about the other numbers in every other group that Obama garnered?

    Now, as Rich points out, to do that, would put a hole into their narrative about this great divide in the Democratic Party.

    Indeed, I've reached an agreement with myself, that this all-knowing press has been wrong on most of the important issues in this campaign from the very beginning.

    Last year this time, it was a fore gone conclusion that it would have been Hillary and Rudy duking it out in the GE. To keep my sanity, I take whatever they have to say with a grain of salt.

    But that has not stopped me from commenting on their stories or sending e-mails to the culprits to let them know that some of us will not just swallow what they say and take it as fact.

  •  Four laughable words, when combined (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MariaWr

    "Frank Rich, Feminist Champion."

    Next week when the Republicans recognize that they have lost the women's vote just the same as that of African-Americans and Hispanics, Frank Rich will be writing misogynist hit pieces and smiling all the way to the bank yet again.

    The weighting is the hardest part. - Tom Petty, pollster and rock star.

    by cskendrick on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:46:33 AM PDT

  •  The term "concern troll" really needs to make it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave Brown, jmaps, paintitblue

    into mainstream english. So much of it goes on.

    It's the constitution, stupid

    by CTMET on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:46:45 AM PDT

  •  The worry with most elections.. (4+ / 0-)

    Is that having a huge lead will result in a comedown..where people don't work quite as hard to win.

    I don't see that happening here, as the Obama campaign clearly isn't playing for a narrow win, they're playing for immense change.

    This is our story...

    by Karmakin on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:49:58 AM PDT

  •  Ahhhhh, Frank Rich is such a breath of fresh (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08, Dragon5616, Excelscior1

    air inthe NY Times! Too bad many of the other articles are better served to line the bottom of the bird cage.

  •  Are you ready for a 41+ state landslide? (5+ / 0-)

    (-9.12,-7.33) I'm calling it now-- after the first Debate, MSM will run Nixon/Kennedy into the ground

    by Mikeguyver on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:53:02 AM PDT

    •  Yep! Will endorsements help the Landslide? (0+ / 0-)

      Oprah has a new season of her show starting in September. Will she will use her hugely popular show and O Magazine to sway those suburban women, millions of whom watch her daily?

      Is the Fairness Doctrine essentially dead? Can she cheerlead a landslide for Obama and ignore McCain?

      I hope so. She played nice with Dumbya when she had him on her show in 2000, and I'll bet she surely regrets that now...

      I won't join your group, but I've probably already given money to your cause..

      by desertguy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:05:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Republican victories are always inexplicable. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ybruti, Dave Brown, notksanymore, MariaWr

    Just imagine if Dukakis or Bill Clinton had picked a dumbshit draft-dodging frat boy like Quayle as a running mate. It would have sunk either of them immediately. Yet, Bush crushed Dukakis, despite the absurd Quayle pick. A genuine Republican vampire,  Dole, came within 7 percent of the successful and popular Clinton in 1996. A nepotistic Republican idiot "defeated" the high-profile heir to 8 years of peace and prosperity in 2000.

    People are stupid. There are plenty of reasons to be worried, foremost among them that the media ARE promoting McCain and the Republican narrative, as usual. The bar for the Democratic nominee is far, far higher than for the Republican, both in the media and in the minds of voters. This is going to be a tough, close race, even though it should be a blowout.

    •  a misinterpretation of 1988 campaign (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bigforkgirl

      in that Bush did not win it, Dukakis lost it.   And the situation then is very different than what is before us today.

      Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

      by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:04:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What's the difference? (0+ / 0-)

        "Bush did not win it, Dukakis lost it."? The distinction is ridiculous. There is no loser without a winner. Who got inaugurated? That's all that matters.
        Besides, my point was that, had Dukakis started his campaign by making the same mistake Bush did (i.e., nominating an obvious idiot for VP), his campaign would have been finished right there. Over, with no chance of recovery. Period.

        You're right, the situation IS different. It's far, far worse for Democrats now.

        •  ??? Worse how? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          paintitblue

          I'm pretty sure that in my voting lifetime (I'm 50) I haven't seen a more favorable situation for a Dem to get elected.  What are you talking about?

          Onward to the Mountaintop!

          by NWTerriD on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 12:07:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's wors ein numerous ways... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kat68

            20 years ago there was no Fox News bleating rightwing lies into the public's ear. There have been 20 more years of right wing radio blather. The established media are almost totally controlled by right wing interests that relentlessly promote the Republican agenda. The default vote in this country is still republican. Can you even imagine a DEMOCRAT who had hosted the Taliban to a state dinner while governor, who had such close ties to the Saudi royal family that he considered one of the Saudi royals a cousin, whose wife had killed an ex-boyfriend in a vehicular homicide, who was an admitted former drunk, and lied repeatedly about his military service--can you imagine such a DEMOCRAT getting elected to two terms?

            Although Bush's grotesque failures have put the Republicans on the defensive, they still have enormous systemic advantages over the Dems. It's true that Obama has come from nowhere as a champion for the Dems. He's kind of a miracle. No other candidate would have stood a chance against McCain.

    •  Can't agree with the "people are stupid" part-- (5+ / 0-)

      But I agree that, for whatever reason, the bar for the Dem nominee has been higher for a long time.  The problem McCain has is that he doesn't even reach that low standard, e.g. he most certainly does not come across as a guy I'd like to sit down with and have a beer.

      I don't know if the race will be close or not (and I remember our high hopes for a Kerry presidency around this time in 2004, so I'm not counting any chickens) but I love the Bay Buchanan quote that I was happy to see show up in Rich's piece, and it bears repeating: "The Senator from Arizona is incapable of energizing his party, brings no new people to the polls, and has a personality that is best kept under wraps."

      •  "personality that is best kept under wraps" (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dave Brown, Youffraita, triptych

        Not a good charecteristic in a candidate.

        They had fangs...they were drinking blood....They had this look in their eyes, totally animal. I think they were young Republicans. (Buffy the Vampire Slayer)

        by wrights on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:36:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  McCain is the most popular politician in the U.S. (0+ / 0-)

        except maybe for Obama. While he may have achieved this popularity by keeping his personality under wraps, the fact remains that he has favorability/unfavorabilty ratings very close to Obama's, and much more stable than Obama's, since he's been around a long time and people feel, wrongly, that they know him.

        People aren't stupid? The average IQ is 100, and that average person is bored by, disinterested in, and ignorant of politics and public affairs, making the average person's political IQ approximately 80. Stupid enough for you?

      •  An appalling number of my fellow Americans... (0+ / 0-)

        are idiots. That is an apparent fact. They are ignorant and gullible. They don't know the world they live in; don't know history; don't understand science; and lack critical thinking skills. So yeah, a little more broadly, "people are stupid".

        Two terms for W. "Saddam attacked us on 9/11". What more proof do you need?

        But since some kind of minimum-competency-as-an-American test at the polls is not feasible, we need to recognize this problem and work around it in the short term, and work to fix it in the long term.

        •  The only, and I mean ONLY, reason Rpublicans (0+ / 0-)

          have been successful is that they recognize the fact that Americans are stupid. They gear everything to Joe and Mary Twelvepack's worst instincts and fears. On the local or even the state level, this approach is less successful because the more local the politics, the easier it is for people to identify their self-interest. The presidency is an iconic office, and factors driving people's votes are far more emotional and symbolic than real.

    •  It's always a surprise (0+ / 0-)

      to the Democrats when they lose.  It's impossible to explain to devoted Democrats why people don't like their candidate and vote for the other guy.  The naivete is sweet.  It makes me realize that hard core Democrats are the best intentioned of people and sometimes believe that everyone else is like that.  They're not.  This election is another one of those where a lot of people feel forced to choose between two candidates they don't like - who they're going to vote against, rather than for.

      Always ask yourself: WWDD

      by karesse on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:35:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good, let the media keep talking McCanty (0+ / 0-)

      up. Makes me work even harder for Obama.

      http://www.freejohnwalker.net/

      by berkelbees on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:37:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  great! But I want a glass that is 80% full. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Donna Z, bigforkgirl, Dave Brown

    I want the republican party at 20%. I want the word republican to be a dirty word in politics. I want them finished, gone.

    •  It would also be nice (0+ / 0-)

      to remove the word 'liberal' from the insult category - when someone calls you a liberal, just say "Yes, I am - thank you!"  - harder to do if someone calls you a 'fucking liberal'.

      "Soon the super karate monkey death car would park in my space. But Jimmy has fancy plans... and pants to match."

      by Dave Brown on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:40:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Concern trolls (5+ / 0-)

    just make me want to work harder.  Both my college age daughter and this ex-Sully Dem (Fairfax County) will travel to VA the week before the election, stay with my older daughter and husband in Richmond, and work very hard to turn out the vote there for Obama and Warner.  

    I can't wait to finish turning VA blue.

  •  actually, I think it isn't so much (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Youffraita, tb mare

    that the media wants to hype a competitive race (though they do) as that the Richistani owners of the media would strongly prefer an "Insane" McCain victory because an honest Federal government would cut into their profits.

    Obama has talked about media deconsolidation, among other things, and of course, the owners of the mass media are also invested in things that profit from a War on Iraq.

    Looking for intelligent energy policy alternatives? Try here.

    by alizard on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:13:08 AM PDT

  •  I thought the NBC/WSJ showed incredibly positive (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, filby, katienne

    number for Obama.  I have been on a high all week becasue of it.

    The women number was awesome and the hispanic number was GREAT!

  •  we must stay focused (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Youffraita, Zorge

    i hate to keep saying the same thing over and over, but....

    despite everything that has occurred over the last seven years, we have a very uphill battle facing us

    the press has such a man-crush on mccain that they get turgid whenever they are in his presence.

    the fear & smear campaign hasn't even gotten started.  this will be an ugly, vile campaign.  it's all the GOP has and they know it.  but they also know that fear & smear has (in the past) worked every time.

    if we win this fall, it will only be because we fought for it (EVERYDAY) as if our lives depended on it....

    •  mccain fakeness (0+ / 0-)

      In some ways, I'm glad they show the guy so much. When he speaks, it's clear he's reading from a teleprompter and can't even inject any passion or belief in his own words. He is so completely uncharismatic.

      People voting for him are those who just won't vote for a democrat no matter what, and forget about those obsessed with race - nothing will move their fear of that which they perceive to be different from them.

      I think McCain will be his own undoing the more he gets questioned; his drippiness and impatience will shine through.

      "We are Americans and we choose to be inspired." - John Edwards

      by michele2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:31:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think you are in error (0+ / 0-)

        in assuming that the words McCrank reads from the teleprompter are his own. I know (from having read up on the subject) that Barack works closely with his speechwriter, and everything in his speeches clearly reflects his own well-developed ideas. I have no reason at all to believe the same is true of McSame.

        Onward to the Mountaintop!

        by NWTerriD on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 12:42:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama will win this election by between (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aeolus, Dave Brown, 3O3

    6&8 points in the popular vote.He will win every Kerry state(252)the 2 Gore states that Kerry lost(NM-5 and IA-7 which adds up to 264. He will turn around OH-20,VA-13,MO-11,CO-9,NV-5 for a clear Electoral College win of 322-216 and if things break right,NC-15 and GA-15 are good possibilities.

    Remember fellow Kossacks,you saw it here first.

    However,I do not see a Roosevelt-Hoover 1932 kind of blowout although I have stated that Dumbya will be the Rethugs Herbert Hooover of the 21st century and the stench of his Presidency will keep those bastards out of power for 20 years.

    •  consider the following (6+ / 0-)
      1. current sense on the Hill is that Dems will net at least 20 House seats, and maybe over 30 again
      1. even the Republican Senate campaign chair knows they will lose seats, and he opines it would be great if they held those losses to 3 or 4
      1. As of now, the following MIGHT be considered safe for McCain:  AK, ID, NE(3 of 5 EVS), SD, UT, AL, KY, OK,and probably AZ and WV.   In theory every other state that Bush carried could be in play.  As of now I would expect Obama to carry both VA and OH, and I think CO also looks good.

      In other words, the makings are there for an Obama electoral landslide, even were he only to win popular vote by 6-8% nationally.  The changing demographic makeup of the electorate with increased numbers of young people and African-Americans, which we have already seen during the primary season, also changes the electoral map.

      That said, we need to keep pedal to the metal, continuing to register more voters, to educate people about the real McCain, and to respond quickly to all smears and distortions.

      Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

      by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:26:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's "Problem" Problem (9+ / 0-)

    All the press does is flit from one "problem" tp another, although they are past the daily pronounement of Obama's doom.

    Of course if we call the press on this enough, the press turns to its favorite topic - talking about themselves. Of course, that is merely one more excuse to repeat smears, not to actually do a better job.

    Fox was interesting yesterday. On the Beltway Boys they were talking about picking on Michelle for being an "angry black woman," and actually said "That's an easy one. It seems like black women are always angry about something...." It seems like they are not even trying that hard.

  •  Wait so are we panicking or not panicking? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChocolateChris, katienne

    Because I totally have been practicing this new scream and I just want to follow what the crowd is doing here.

  •  Re: "a photo finish is essential..." (6+ / 0-)

    This, more than anything McCain's got to offer, is what concerns me.

    I fear that the media have become increasingly skilled at gaming every major election (or primary in the past half-year's case) so that we all must depend on the media right up through the finish line.

    If Obama pulls out ahead of McCain more strongly, many corners of the media will try their best to beat Obama back to "tied" with McCain.  This is one of many side effects of a for=profit media.

  •  Catholic vote was a huge surprise (5+ / 0-)

    in the NBC/WSJ poll -- leading by 7.  This was Obama's most persistent weakness in the primary, and is one demo that will be critical in OH and PA.  (I'd like to know the non-Hispanic Cathloic vote; but even if that's only a 3-4% lead, it's still very comforting.)

  •  Just read the article (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    smartdemmg, Dragon5616

    and left a thank you note.  

    "that while we breathe, we will hope"--Barack Obama Google Bomb: Obama Muslim

    by Preyanka on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:49:16 AM PDT

  •  Thank you TK and Frank Rich. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave Brown, lauramp, John2Luke, tb mare

    I listened to Andrea Mitchell's report on NBC that night and then read the MSNBC article. It was as if they were discussing two different polls. It was obvious that this poll held almost unanimously positive findings for Barack (which Chuck Todd later noted on Matthews' show) but political bias or an agenda had overwritten facts.

    I think Rich has identified the primary issue here. The media is still McCain's base. In the past week, I have seen Mike Barnicle and Mika Brzinzski almost attack Gen. Wesly Clark for merely suggesting that McCain has no real foreign policy experience simply as a function of serving in the military.  

    The behavior of the media would almost be amusing if the health and safety of a nation were not at stake.

    •  And this really confuses me too.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      smartdemmg

      why, oh why, are the media so taken with this self-contradicting, reactionary, frequently-mistaken old man?

      Why oh why does his prisoner of war past trump all logic?

      Let Justice roll down like water, Righteousness like a flowing stream

      by John2Luke on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:35:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  you guys, this is one poll.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    John2Luke, fleisch, cishart

    and it's a poll very early on in the race.  I don't need to go through the history of polls since 1980 at a similar stage, do I?  Many Dems who lost were up by much more than this, and looked better in the key demographics than this poll.  I agree it's good news, but declarations of landslides and sure victories are, in my opinion, both ludicrous and counter-productive.  We're going to need to work hard to win this thing.

  •  Women for McCain (7+ / 0-)

    I am glad that you and Frank Rich pointed out the "feminists are bitter" nonsense.  I'm getting tired of women being portrayed as illogical and vengeful because "their" candidate lost.  As pointed out, Obama won many women's votes and most women have already come back to the Democratic nominee after seeing what McCain has to offer.  I'm really sick of the simplistic narratives in this elections that people vote by ethnic group or gender.  Apparently none of this was operative when the only candidates were white men.

    McCain: Less jobs, more war.

    by Unstable Isotope on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:57:46 AM PDT

    •  the monolithic female vote (4+ / 0-)

      that isn't.

      I and probably 20 immediate friends, all female, have been in Edwards then Obama's camps never in HRCs. It angered me early on to hear anyone say that women should vote for HRC because she's a she. Right. Gender bias is still gender bias and to consider the female vote as a monolithic block only concerned about girl power in the Whitehouse is the mentality we've all tried to escape for so long.

      Maybe the most important crack in the glass ceiling is the realization, d'oh, that women can think for themselves after all!

      maybe I'm cranky this a.m. sorry.

      "We are Americans and we choose to be inspired." - John Edwards

      by michele2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:25:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Will McCain really be the nominee? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NWTerriD, orangedem, OnlyWords

    There's nothing Democratic about the Republicans. Their "winner take all" system is really manipulated by the back room boys. In the primaries, each candidate was vetted and pitched. Finally, some decided to use McCain as a figurehead (given his age and almost psychotic belief that he deserves the presidency) while at least some others figured that since they were going to lose anyway they shouldn't "waste" a promising young candidate like Romney on a lost cause.

    But their machinations will be a problem down ticket, as they now see. Who'd like to lay a bet that McCain discovers a non-fatal but significant health reason to back out in August? And then gets bundles of money in some non-job for his efforts?

    •  +1 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      4Freedom

      I think there's a likelihood McCain will be replaced at the convention. Esp. if the poll #s and down-ticket races continue to drop.

      WaPo had an article today about two incumbent R Senators running ads w/o mentioning GWB. Implied strategy is the same: run away from/against government.

      BTW, WaPo also had a nice pic of McCain/Lieberman arm-in-arm in Iraq.

    •  I don't really think McCain being replaced is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      4Freedom, Dragon5616, katienne

      very likely.

      But I do agree with you that there may well have been a sense of go ahead and give him the nomination as a sacrificial lamb--particularly given the listless repub field.  

      Much like Dole in 1996, McCain has been around forever, put in his time for the party, so why not?

  •  As a Hillary Clinton supporter it's a joke for (20+ / 0-)

    the McCain people to think her supporters will vote for him.  Most of my friends were for Hillary and not one plans to vote for MCain.  As for Ms. Fiorina as an inducement to lure us to the McCain camp, she was a disaster at Hewlitt Packard, a huge outsourcer and cutter of good paying jobs for many American women.  Certainly not the role model for his misguided campaign to promote.

  •  Theproblem "with a closeness that does not exist" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shakludanto, 4Freedom

    The problem "with a closeness that does not exist" as you so ably put it, is that if the media continues to say it is a tight race - and cuts and fits the data to work with their need for a close race - it sets up the possibility that the rethugs can still steal it.  

    "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" - James Madison

    by Hotspur18 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:59:37 AM PDT

  •  Like clockwork Ken, your observations welcomed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    filby, citisven

    well noted.  I have been analyzing polls as well and concluded the same outcome as you.  I believe that not only will the grassroots efforts that Obama based this race on prevail, but it will be in a defeat seen like no other and by the unlikely of candidates.  Not only will we help him make history on the cultural front, we will make history in the numbers game as well.  It will be a defeat for the ages and it is wonderful to be apart of it.

    Thanks for your continued and complete observation.

    Obama '08

    When you have faith, all things are possible

    by 3O3 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:01:02 AM PDT

  •  Thank you, thank you (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mftalbot

    I needed this one.

    The devolution will be reality show televised, commercialized and trivialized.

    by niteskolar on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:15:19 AM PDT

  •  110 suburban women (8+ / 0-)

    That's the size of the sample nationwide of suburban women with whom Obama has "trouble".  

    Men who think "Obama doesn't share their values" -- I call those Republicans.  

    This is what is repeated ad infinitum on the chyron on NBC.  Thus the premise that Obama is in "trouble", when the poll was devastating to McCain.  The real story of the poll:  how badly McCain is doing and how quickly Dem's are coalescing around Obama.  And of course, none of these polls take into account the new voters, since likely voter status has to do with past voting history.  

    We have a problem with the media here, people.  I thought we might have our own media darling for a change; but the media has decided that McCain, who doesn't know the difference between Shi'a and Sunni is to be beloved because he feeds them barbecue.  

    McCain is "praying" for the flood victims; Obama has organized volunteers in the most effective and swift manner I've ever seen, and shown up to fill sandbags.  Did the MSM cover it at all?  

  •  Excellent diary, teacherken! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, mftalbot, filby

    One of your very, very best. And that's saying something, since your average diary is pretty damned good.

    White woman over 50 for OBAMA!! (Endorsed 10/07)

    by Glinda on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:29:52 AM PDT

  •  Obama's white suburban women "problem" is a myth (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mjd in florida, 4Freedom, Zorge

    What is not mentioned by Rich or in your diary or by the media that loudly trumpeted Obama's "problem" with surburban women last week was the fact that McCain's reported "lead" with this sliced-and-diced demographic was within the MOE of 9+%.  The poll prevented the media from decrying Obama's "problem" with women, or even his problem with "white women," so they had to find some mythological "Obama woman problem" to fill up the air with.  Disgusting.

  •  MOEs for subgroups often quite wide (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LearningCurve, Neon Vincent

    which is why drawing any such conclusions is often perilous.  The point both Rich and I make is that even if it were an accurate representation of current distribution of suburban women, it is nothing about which to fret, given the totality of the info available in the poll.

    Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

    by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:32:09 AM PDT

  •  excellent as always, teacherken. (0+ / 0-)

    You have no idea how much I look forward to your diaries.  Thank you.  
    And here's to a giant victory, with a lot of hard work.  

    John McCain will take away your right to choose.

    by Texanomaly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:36:55 AM PDT

  •  Does this mean we can tell (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    McJulie, davidkc, blue earth

    those Hillary supporters who will vote for McCain, go ahead?

    I am tired of pandering to them and jumping through hoops to be nice to them.

  •  When I read the headline... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    liberalconservative

    I thought the diary was going to temper all the enthusiasm I've been reading here about the GE...

    Nice to see that the dynamics are so in our favor that with work and dedication, we can still make Obama the 44th president.

  •  concern troll my ass (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    liberalconservative, Dragon5616

    so everyone must be in lockstep agreement or they are a troll?  sounds very republican to me.  maybe some of us are a little older or grew up in a very racist area of the country and can see things through a lens that hopefully you,and my kids, will never be exposed to. my local craigslist rant and rave section regularly features pictures of monkeys with  Obama's  face photoshopped onto it.  but let's not be concerned or fight back. i mean we are democrats, lets all  just bend over and turn both other cheeks,right?

  •  teacherken, great analysis. (0+ / 0-)

    i read mr. rich's article last night and it just made me realize how much bullcrap comes out of the talkingheads to manipulate ppl.

    spot on!

  •  McCain's War On Womwn (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    4Freedom

    John McCain is often painted as a moderate.

    But where does he really stand on issues that affect women?

    McCain's Senate record may surprise you. From equal pay to domestic violence programs, from sex education to the fundamental question of what conversations a woman may or may not have with her doctor, McCain is no moderate.

    Get the facts about where John McCain stands on these issues then let us know where you stand on John McCain.

  •  Very well-written, haven't even... (0+ / 0-)

    digested it all.  I am going to put it on my hotlist.

    I want to read more but I'm off to watch Meet the Press  honoring Tim Russert ::heavy sigh::

    asking "Why not?" Lisa in CT on First Read and Obama website

    by JellyBearDemMom on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:57:54 AM PDT

  •  White men and suburban women (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    4Freedom

    It is clear that the glass is more half full than it is half empty. Democrats, independents and women are moving more in Obama's direction in many of the states that he needs. In the Democratic primaries, Obama kept it competitive both among white men and in the suburbs of large cities where he did very well. The general election atmosphere will include members of these two groups who were important members of the Bush coalition, so he will look worse.

    (The 6-point bounce ought to cause the head of at least one person to explode, especially since HRC had no chance of winning white men IMHO)

    -4.00, -5.33 "We don't watch any talking heads or any politics. We watch "SportsCenter" and argue about that."--Barack Obama

    by 4jkb4ia on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:01:00 AM PDT

  •  The Sunday Morning teacherken treat arrives! (7+ / 0-)

    As always, thank you.

    Last week when this poll came out with its long string of positive news for Obama, one was hard pressed to find a cable news yapper focused on anything but "What does Obama need to do to win the white suburban women's vote?" I kept waiting, and I'm still waiting to hear those magic words: "What is McCain going to do to win in America?"

    This morning finds the state of the ridiculous continuing as the gatekeepers repeat, wash and rinse, their false narrative with reports of McCain reaching out to Hillary voters. I noticed that Obama also continues his path of reaching out to America. How delightful to be part of a party with a plan. And we certainly do have a plan.

    When my friends buzz and fret about a triumph by McCain, I shake my head: no, no, no. First of all, we all know that we must not let that happen. Second, and most important, we are not going to let that happen.

    A few weeks ago at our state meeting the good leaders of Unity 08 made their presentation. It was then that I realized that the structure that the roots have always yearned for it being built. Tom Allen told us the same thing. The party is putting money and faith in the power of bottom-up politics. I'm a believer and thus, I'm a worker who has accepted the task of helping to ID voters even in my corner of red America. This is but a first step in the process of forming the foundation of a Democratic Party that will be both strong and willing to listen to the roots. November of 08 is not the end game; it is the beginning.

    What my recent experience has taught me is that we are not going to sit passively by while our candidates get chewed up; we are going to muscle the wins that we desire. Be it 6 points or 20, the work that is being done now will be the secret of putting "Ds" in the win column.

    If you have not signed up, then please help us do this. If you are already on the team, I thank you. If you have always put your boots on the ground and haven't heard the good news, this year there will many new faces joining you. We must win this thing; we have no other choice.

    Rich is right...the demographics are good and will get better. Pragmatic idealism is rising.  

  •  Off-topic, but THANK YOU (3+ / 0-)

    Thank you, teacherken, for living up to your name by correctly using the plural forms of verbs when the subject is "data" or "media."  
    The constant use of "data" and "media" as singular nouns hurts my head as much as if people were writing "the geese is" and "the mice does."  
    The media are.  The data undercut.  
    Too many authors of otherwise good diaries write things like "the data is..." or "the media does..."  Worse, and I've seen even the Great Orange Satan himself do this one, some refer to "a media" (shudder).  

    This has been a completely off-topic grammar rant, but I mean for it to be a positive rant.  Teacherken has shown that a diary can be interesting, insightful, worth reading, and at the same time correctly recognize that the words "media" and "data" are always plural, like the words "geese" and "mice."  

    "It is nice to know that the computer understands the problem. But I would like to understand it too." --Eugene Wigner

    by The Ice Cream Man on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:02:33 AM PDT

  •  Republican hope is media ownership (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flurdman, 4Freedom

    Republican hope rests on the fact they own the media, but they would never say it.  I watched  3 McClaughlin Stooges (the other 2 had to go along) discuss Obama and his negatives for 20 minutes out of a 30 minute program.  To keep Republican negatives high I think it is necessary to keep the spotlight on impeachment, Republican failures, the impeachment and trial books by Holtzman, de La Vega, and Bugliosi.  Even though the media does not mention Bugliosi's book, which is number 17, it is fairly high on the best seller list.  Even Ron Paul's stance on the war and his former number 1 status on the NYT best seller list helps lower Republican positives.  McClellan's book is number 2.

  •  After this... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SherriG, 4Freedom, RosieD1, filby

    Organize and work like we are behind, like the race is still competitive.

    I would add this:
    We must win by a margin that defeats voter suppression, unreliable electronic voting machines, and outright criminal acts.

    You just KNOW the Republicans think they're holding the "Bradley effect" card to cover their attempts to steal this election too.

    Landslide isn't a feel-good goal; it's the best protection we have.

  •  Thanks TeacherKen (0+ / 0-)

    As always, your diaries get to the heart of things.

    I've noticed a trend lately that the front pagers often seem to rehash stories that have already made the rec list written by someone else and it's happened again with this story.  I hope people take the time to read your analysis.  

    •  I will disagree on today (0+ / 0-)

      since DemFromCT's story is quite different than mine and offers a lot of additional information.

      Peace.

      Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

      by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:55:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  actually, if you're keeping score (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      teacherken

      (and I don't know why you would), my post was pretty much written and announced Friday (well before this story hit the rec list). As it happens, it's rich material, and it's not surprising that several authors used similar material.

      But our posts are different, with mine relying on Hart's polling data at its core. Fine by me if you prefer this one, but the copycat implication doesn't stand up to scrutiny (check the link).

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:15:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's 2006 all over again! (0+ / 0-)

    I remember how the TM played down the drubbing the Repiglicans got. Right up to Nov 2,2006 we were bombarded with "How this was goining to a very very close race"! Well I'm shocked, just schocked, once again we are being told it's going to be "Close".

    Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

    by eddieb061345 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:07:46 AM PDT

  •  It is hard to learn something (0+ / 0-)

    you think you have already learned.

    The media has to be slow picking up new information, because that is no longer their job. Their job is to make whatever it is exciting.

    And serve at the feet of their corporate masters.

    The more what they say contradicts a person's knowledge, the less they will be listened to.

    WereBear
    We are not rational beings. We are rationalization beings.
    the way of cats

    by WereBear on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:20:13 AM PDT

  •  democrats (0+ / 0-)

     roll on democrats    the end is in sight for corporate republicans..    

  •  Stiff half asleep on a Sunday morning, I thought (0+ / 0-)

    wow, this a great article - so well written and thought our and presented. I should have known - when I checked for the author name, there you are, Ken. Always worth a close read.

  •  The challenge for Obama (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pamelabrown, paintitblue

    during this time period before the conventions is TO CARRY JOHN McCAIN into the post-convention general election period. This is why Obama has been tepid about McCain's entreaty to do lots of joint "town halls". Obama, rather than reluctant to give McCain joint audience cred, is reluctant to completely blow McCain out of the game lest the Repubs somehow orchestrate a bait and switch after the fact.

    Obama; raisin' McCain in the Bush!

    by gaspi on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:44:07 AM PDT

  •  Print (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken

    Reality Check - if we keep our focus, if we continue to register new voters, if we put the mechanics in place for turnout operations in November, if we ensure that the slanders and distortions are immediately challenged, if we continue to raise massive amounts of money, if we challenge Republican House and Senate members even in seemingly out of reach contests and thus tie them down - in short, if we simply keep doing everything we have been doing and not lose our focus - this election season belongs to us.    It will not just be Barack Obama and whomever he selects as his running mate.  It will be House candidates like Charlie Brown and Eric Massa and Jon Power and Larry Kissell and Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye and . . . It will be Senate candidates like Jeanne Shaheen and the Udall cousins and Mark Warner and . . .

    Print this part to put on your wall where you can read it every day. Print and hand out to friends who start political conversation with, "I'm just afraid that..." Hand them this with the subject line: Don't say fear - fear feeds the dragon.

    "I love the Constitution" - President Barack Obama

    by mrobinson on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:53:25 AM PDT

  •  It's disgusting the way.... (0+ / 0-)

    .... the MSM tries to tailor the story line to suit their ratings needs, leaving out and or down playing any info that might not help them in their quest for a close horse-race style media event.

    I guess that is the real reason you always see them attack with verocity the front runner,as they try their best to keep it a close race for their own benefit.

  •  Women are not going to vote for a warmonger (0+ / 0-)

    like McCain.

    The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.

    by lysias on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:54:05 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for this. You should post it on MyDD also (0+ / 0-)

    There are a lot of trolls still lurking there.

  •  If Obama can win 2 to 1 among Latinos in the fall (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, 4Freedom

    then Texas becomes a swing state.  Just consider these facts.  According to the 2004 exit polls Kerry barely won the Latino vote in Texas 50-49.  His results nationall weren't too much better, winning 53 to 44.  And if I were guessing, I would be willing to bet that the difference between the national polls and the polls in Texas had more to do with the fact that Texas is Bush's home state than any significant difference idealogically between Texas Latinos and Latinos in the rest of the country.

    In 2004 Latinos made up 20% of the vote in Texas, and African Americans made up 12% of the vote in the state.  If Obama wins 65% percent of the Latino vote, and 90% of the African American vote in Texas, my algebra (which may be flawed) indicates that Obama would need to carry 39% of the remaining white vote to get past the 50% mark.  However, assuming that Bob Barr carries 4 percent, than that magic number becomes 48%, and Obama would only need 36% of the white vote to win.  This is still likely a tough tast for Obama considering that Kerry only won 24% of the white vote in Texas in 2004.  But, if African American and Hispanic turnout increases the task becomes easier, and at some point, this state may actually come into play.  And of course we all know that McCain can not win without Texas, and even if we lose the state, if McCain has to divert his limited resources to defending this must win for the GOP, it would really make winning the other swing states that much easier for Obama.

  •  I'm feeling way better (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wisteacher

    this week than I have for a long time. I think all the racists and crypto-racists in my circle of acquaintance have already revealed themselves to me. And these numbers reassure me that their votes, in my deep blue state, will be meaningless.

    The one job we need to work on that you didn't mention in your diary is combatting election fraud, in all its guises. That's the flip side of GOTV - making sure that all the votes get counted.

    Confident, but not complacent. I didn't think there would be any point a couple of weeks ago, but maybe I'll be visiting my aunt in FL in early November, as I did in 2004.

    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

    by sidnora on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:10:46 AM PDT

  •  Can some one help me... (0+ / 0-)

    try to understand the current climate when it comes to reporting and claims of sexism in the media.

    Is there a generalization that can be reported upon about women that, in the current climate, would not be viewed as a sexist comment? (The same question might be raised of any particular demographic, i.e. African Americans or elderly voters)

    The more I read, the more I doubt anything can be generalized about women, minority groups, or any other demographic that would not be open to claims of some "ism" or another.

    Is this the logical extension of politics riven by pollsters, segmenting and dicing up the electorate? Is this an unintended consequence of identity politics? Is this simply media contrived hype to fill airtime in a 24/7 media world?

  •  I believe your analysis is correct (0+ / 0-)

    but I also read a diary here that pointed out that turnout in primaries is NOT indicative of the outcome of the GE...I commented that I thought these turnout differences overwhelm that argument because it is not a % difference in primary voters between Dems and Repubs, it is a factor difference. That would seem to me to have to translate to an advantage in the GE.  Your thoughts?  

    If you want to truly understand something, try to change it. - Kurt Lewin

    by anim8sit on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:14:37 AM PDT

    •  that depends what primary turnout represents (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lauramp, Dragon5616

      now, one might argue that some of turnout for Clinton may stay home, although I do not think it will be all that large a portion, nor do I think that many will vote for McCain, except for those following the directions of Limbaugh.

      But the young people and African-Americans and independents and Republicans who crossed over to vote for Obama?  You really think they will sit out the general?  I don't.  And remember that Obama was already working with the DNC to further expand the electorate by increasing registration.  That is an ongoing process.  And the DNC and the campaign are going to be fully integrated, not that difficult to accomplish when both are dedicated to the 50 state approach.  Some of that is already hapennings.

      Beware of relying too heavily on previous elections, given how different this cycle has already been.  Also, remember that anger often increases turnout.  And right now the anger towards Bush and Republicans is palpable.

      This time the Republicans do not want large turnout.  In the past they presumed they could increase turnout of targeted groups like evangelicals hrough things like anti-gay marriage initiatives and benefit. But now they are losing a portion of the evangelical vote, and the old levers are not as effective.  They would rather NOT operate in an environment of a vastly expanded electorate, and I think that is more likely than not.

      Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

      by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:36:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I did it for you, now copy and print (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, 4Freedom

    link to teacherken
    Print this Reality Check as a handout or an email to your list- and credit teacherken at http://www.dailykos.com/...  Subject line: This election season belongs to us. It fits on a 3x5 card to carry in your pocket. FRONT:

    This Election Season Belongs To Us

    *if we keep our focus,
    *if we continue to register new voters,
    *if we put the mechanics in place for turnout operations in November,
    *if we ensure that the slanders and distortions are immediately challenged,
    *if we continue to raise massive amounts of money,
    *if we challenge Republican House and Senate members even in seemingly out of reach contests and thus tie them down,
    *in short, if we simply keep doing everything we have been doing and not lose our focus, this election season belongs to us.

    BACK of 3x5 card - with room to add a contact number.

    It will not just be Barack Obama and whomever he selects as his running mate.  It will be House candidates like Charlie Brown and Eric Massa and Jon Power and Larry Kissell and Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye and . . . It will be Senate candidates like Jeanne Shaheen and the Udall cousins and Mark Warner and . . .

    "I love the Constitution" - President Barack Obama

    by mrobinson on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:15:54 AM PDT

  •  EVERYBODY check out olbermann's piece (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jkennerl, betson08, africa, Dragon5616

    in the new yorker!!!

    fascinating take on the business aspect of msnbc/nbc and olbermann as a rising star!

  •  the repugs know this is our year so they will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dragon5616

    fight dirty to stay in power, that is the only factor standing between dems and the white house... def. not women voters! I want to see what they will pull this time especially with McCain directly, i suspect it will be alot of 527s doing the dirty work though

  •  Great Diary, TK (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08

    I have been thinking about the failure of the media to report these poll results correctly in connection with the untimely death of Tim Russert.  Journalists have been tripping all over themselves to praise Russert as exhibiting the highest standards of journalism in his NBC career. (What I have learned from the coverage of Russert's passing is how much more there was to the man than what we saw on the MTP hour on Sunday.  He clearly was revered at NBC not only for his journalistic skills, but also for his devotion to his colleagues, friends and family.)  

    It would be good to remind these journalists and media types that, if they really want to honor Russert, they might want to cover this election cycle in a manner which would make him proud.  I won't get my hopes up, though.

    Hopemonger here...

    by kkbmom on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:21:37 AM PDT

  •  This I love, buried in that article (5+ / 0-)

    this link to a story about a joke McCain told on stage, and how, as the New York Times journalist reports,

    "He is so revered by the press that his disgusting jape was largely nudged under the rug. ''It's like a return to the Kennedy era,'' said one magazine editor. ''He makes a gaffe, and we look the other way.''

    Tell me that something even approaching this level of putridness would not simply END the Democratic nominee's candicacy, even if he didn't say it but someone he had once met or worked with did.

    McCain on the other hand can spew such things himself, and no one in the traditional media gives a damn.

    •  Maybe it's (0+ / 0-)

      left to us to keep letting the press know that it better start covering McCain, instead of dusting his many, many gaffes under the rug.

      One thing I think that's different in this campaign year is that, the so-called MSM is not the only outlet we can rely on to disseminate information any longer.

      The Internets will help put some of this stuff into perspective.

      While they've igonred McCain's flip flopping from his recent stance on Social Security privatization to Iraq, we can beat the drum via YouTube, just like JedReport's mashup from yesterday.

      The stories will be written here, at the HuffPost, TPM and lots of other places, even if McCain fans in the media don't want to write them.

      We can't allow them to take this away, which will likely end up hurting the country even further.

      It happened eight years ago and four years ago, but
      not this time!

      No, not this time.

  •  We need to stay aggressive and keep working, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08

    things are certainly looking promising for November.  The few congressional special elections have been great for Democrats.  I have read several posts (at another site, not here) about how Obama's in trouble because X% of Hillary supporters say they won't vote for him, when the overal poll they're citing shows Obama LEADING McCAIN by several percent!  How they can maintain that cognitive dissonance is beyond me.

    Five months is an eternity in politics, and the narrative could change, and you know the Republican smear machine will be working overtime to try and do so in any way possible.  Plus, since FDR died only one Democratic candidate for President has pulled over 50.1% of the overall vote (LBJ in '64), so we shouldn't get overconfident.  A lot of folks in this country are pretty darn conservative.

    But we're off to a promising start, and if we all work hard this can end up being a wonderful Tuesday night in November.

    Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery; none but ourselves can free our minds

    by synchronicityii on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:35:05 AM PDT

  •  First sign of a concern troll --- (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, SherriG, parakinesis, paintitblue

    The assumption that ANY good news will be taken as a reason to coast.  

    To concern trolls, or just the concerned:

    Puleeeze.  People know how important this election is, and they know McCain is just more of Bush.  They've seen too many close races in recent years to let down their guards.  And, furthermore, if they are participating on a political blog, they are more keenly aware of these things than the average voter.

    So stow the "work like we're down ten points" unless you see some sign besides your inner concern, that it is an issue (pssst, on a political blog that's not bloody likely).  Keep in mind acknowledging or celebrating good news is Not. An. Issue.

    Just because you tend to slack off when you get good news doesn't mean the rest of us do. I doubt very seriously Obama's campaign team are reading these polls and are thinking of coasting through to November. None of us are.

    Summer concern trolls can expect to be thoroughly taunted. Although I'd expect October concern trolls will be given a little more leeway.

    Main Point: Obama has survived things that would have destroyed a lesser politician.  McCain is most definitely a lesser politician. Vigilance, not concern, is needed.

    News Pundits - The Dopplerless weathermen of our time. Jon Stewart

    by mentaldebris on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:41:56 AM PDT

  •  Reality check: (0+ / 0-)

    Polls this early out mean nothing.

    We need to work our asses off and not be complacent and over-confident. (Though I do sense this is the year for us.)

    I'm too lazy but if someone wants to do the research and post it here, it would be interesting  to see the polls for previous prez elections at around this time (June of '04 and '00 and earlier.)

    You've got to vote for someone. It's a shame, but it's got to be done.--Whoopi Goldberg

    by Libertaria on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:48:57 AM PDT

  •  Polls at this point are useless (0+ / 0-)

    Until we're really in full campaign swing, in the fall, who cares what polls say?  They can make a poll say anything---I got a call from my congressman on Friday. It's a robo-call he's doing...he's a Republican. He asks a series of yes and no questions and all you can do is say yes or no to have your answer register (supposedly).  The questions are worded so that Repubs will answer one way and Dems the other (or so Dems will accidentally answer wrongly---for example, he asks "are you pro-life"?  well, yes I am pro-life but I'm pro-choice if you ask me about abortion. He didn't ask about abortion....so you can see the bias inherent there).  Polls can be asked to get the answers to skew in certain ways.  No self respecting true Democrat will vote for McCain and the swing voters won't know who they're voting for until Nov 4.  People can say anything to a pollster and you know by now that they will.

  •  Very insightful analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paintitblue

    teacherken!  Would like to add that other day I noticed Obama was in Cincinnati, Ohio fundraising - over last 4-6 weeks have not followed campaign as closely - but mentioned to my wife that if Obama doing well in Cincy (hardcore Bush country) then McCain is in for a real whoopin!  Recall that while Clinton won OH Obama won Montgomery County, the most swing county w/in the state.

  •  GREAT POST, I'm w/ you n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  Good, complete analysis. For some time (0+ / 0-)

    now I've been watching this disconnect in the media between their prognostications of "difficulties" with various groups with Obama and what MINE OWN EYES have been telling me: Obama is winning over the American electorate. And this pretense of a close race is what the media thrive on. Since Hillary left they AIN'T GOT NOTHIN' ELSE.

    This having been said, I fear, knowing the twist and turns of fate, that Obama could still lose this election. Hey, witness the last Laker game. Just bein' real, folks.

  •  As always, teacherken, a thoughtful (0+ / 0-)

    diary. Tipped and rec'd.

    Just one question:  If impeachment were ON the table, how would that change your analysis?

    "Whatever America hopes to bring to pass in the world must first come to pass in the heart of America." --Dwight Eisenhower

    by Dragon5616 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:03:14 AM PDT

    •  I'm not sure it would (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dragon5616

      if it were to start now, not clear you could move fast enough to get to the Senate before the election.  

      If it did, with full disclosure of the misdeeds of the administration, who would have a more difficult time, Obama or McCain?  How then would McCain be able to walk the tightrope between trying to keep the Bush-supporting base and reaching out to independents and moderate Democrats?

      I think the Dem leadership in the House has decided to wait Bush out, challenging where they can and letting the arrogance of the Republicans who continue to support Bush make the case for Democratic control.

      I do not think it has been ideal.  Remember, when I wrote those words it was quiet some time ago.

      Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

      by teacherken on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:19:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for your answer. (0+ / 0-)

        It seems a moot point at present. Personally, I prefer that we allow the GOP to remain discouraged and in disarray. Let's not give them any reason to unify and get energized.

        "Whatever America hopes to bring to pass in the world must first come to pass in the heart of America." --Dwight Eisenhower

        by Dragon5616 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:42:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  And this is who should be (0+ / 0-)

    called out by tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, of citizens every single time they twist things:

    an unshakable McCain fan club

    I don't watch cable, but I gather Chris Matthews is in that club. Who else? Let's have the full list available.

    Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

    by Jim P on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:11:21 AM PDT

  •  Consider the language in NBC's poll article: (5+ / 0-)

    However, Obama has a seven-point advantage (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? Newhouse explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it is white women that usually decide the race. "If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election," he says, noting that George W. Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

    The framing here is so obvious as to be absurd. The paragraph gives the facts that (1) Obama is leading among women white women voters by a healthy seven points, a group which (2) Gore and Kerry both lost. Yet somehow the sentence discussing this is about the risk of Obama "losing" this group for the Democrats. This is just in flat-out denial of the reality the poll is itself announcing.

  •  Ask One Question... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alohilani

     Ask: How will voting for McCain support anything Hillary Clinton stands for?  

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.." -HST

    by moondancing on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:45:09 AM PDT

  •  We can all make a difference ... (0+ / 0-)

    Great diary  --

    I can definitely see a difference between the Media's "close race" and what  am seeing with my own family and friends. I am doing my best to convince people around me, one vote at a time.

    My brother-in-law is one of those that is considered far right. Born again Christian, home schooled children, etc. I'm sure you get the picture. A few weeks ago, we had a long talk about politics. BIL is against the war, and has been increasingly dissatisfied with the Bush administration, and he is exited about Barack Obama.  This might be the first year ever my whole family will vote the same! (quite a feat)

  •  Funny...... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wisteacher

    The thing to remember about the WSJ/NBC Poll is that in 2004, the numbers did not deviate from a 1-3 point lead for BUSH for the entire 5-month election cycle!

    IN other words, once the electorate's mind is made up, it tends to remain set in stone no matter what happens in the debates/town halls/Q&As that make up our election 'cycle'.

  •  Obma needs to be the more intelligent choice (0+ / 0-)

    not the smarter candidate

    Smart guys lose --- alot

    Since 1976, the smarter candidate (the policy wonk, the guy who would tell you why you were wronG0 has only won twice

    Jimmy Carter won in 1976 and Bill Clinton won in 1992 being the smarter person in the race.

    For Jimmy Carter is was the Peanut farmer turned Ga governor that sold the public; For Clinton it was the Good Old Boy perception that the public bought.  The thing was that both candidates downplayed their smarts and played to an audience that was desparate to like them.

    Reagan in 1980 & 1984, Bush I in 1988, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2000 and 2004 prevailed largely becasue the public perceived their opponets as people who were going to do what was best for them.  

    As a person of some intelligence, I can tell you I win more battles (I am a lawyer) by convincing judges and juries that they are smarter than I am, that they can see the facade being trotted out by the DAs, and that they know what is right and wrong.

    McCain has presented himself as the know it all on Iraq and the War on Terror.  McCain is trying to tout his experience over Obama.  McCain wants everyone to know how smart he is about Washington.

    Obama's message of change and his rapid response to criticism has created the impression of a fighter and champion of the people.  Obama has countered the Insider-Outsider message with Who's going to change the "way things work"

    Its a great narrative regardless of the result.  I doubt we will see the media approach in 1988 and 1996 when Dukakis and Dole were told two months out that they were going to get wiped out in electoral landslides.

    We are more likely to see the narratives of 1992 and 2000 --- the status quo is unpopular and the American polity is restless.

    •  You make a very good point. In teaching, in (0+ / 0-)

      sales, in any endeavour wherein one attempts to persuade another, getting the other to perceive him/herself as smarter for making the choice that you suggest is 9/10ths of the battle.

      Sending the message that those who don't concur are stupid, however, is counter productive.  Then the one making the good choice has to deal with the displeasure of the one who has been made to feel stupid.  And that can result in lost votes in some situations.

      "We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America." Barack Obama

      by keeplaughing on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:04:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  once again, a clear and well-thought-out analysis (0+ / 0-)

    You are always the one to read for perspective, Teacherken.  :-)

    Justice Stevens is 88 years old. Justice Stevens is 88 years old. Justice Stevens is 88 years old.

    by sunspark says on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:54:20 PM PDT

  •  This is especially important... (0+ / 0-)

    I view the NBC-WSJ poll as devastating to McCain.  We already know that many voters still have this image of McCain as a maverick, with the implication that he is moderate on issues of importance.  But as they learn that he would overturn Roe, that in 2007 he supported Bush 95% of the time, that he opposed SCHIP (etc.), they quickly move away from him.     He also seems to be a bit of a human gaffe machine, and his contradictions and misstatements are becoming so evident that even a supportive press is beginning to discuss them.

    We need endless ads and surrogates touting his positions and flip-flops.

    It turns out people now see him as anything but "maverick".  That image must exist in the presses' head:

    John McCain once had the most powerful brand in American politics.

    He was often called the country's most popular politician and widely admired for his independent streak. It wasn't too many years ago that "maverick" was the cliche of choice in describing him.

    But that term didn't even make the list this year when voters were asked by the Pew Research Center to sum up McCain in a single word. "Old" got the most mentions, followed by "honest," "experienced," "patriot," "conservative" and a dozen more. The words "independent," "change" or "reformer" weren't among them.

    Voters have notoriously short memories, but it could be argued that McCain cheapened his own brand.

    "The 'Gay Agenda' has indeed been revealed, and it bears a remarkable resemblance to the U.S. Constitution." ~Donna Minnis

    by Decided Voter on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:02:20 PM PDT

  •  Rove's 527... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paintitblue

    Raise your hand if you think Rove is smarter than Barack Obama.

    I rest my case.

    John McCain graduated in the lowest 1% of his Naval Academy class.

    by glutz78 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:38:26 PM PDT

  •  Good diary (0+ / 0-)

    a bit lengthy for my taste, though.

    "It's not enough to give healthcare to the sick or jobs to the jobless... but it is where we start. It is where our union grows stronger." - Barack Obama

    by Batbird on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:34:50 PM PDT

  •  I Wonder How Many Hillary Supporters Remember (0+ / 0-)

    those wise ass remarks about Hillary Clinton, Chelsea and Janet Reno?

    Not to mention all the Limbore comments back in the 1990's about the Clintons.

    Are you still going to turn on the party and support the Republicans because "a black man" is running for President.

    Its time to look at the year on the calendar, folks.  Welcome to the 21st Century.  Hopefully, people have grown up and got with the times.

    Oh wait. We have nothing but LIBERAL REPORTERS working in a LIBERAL MEDIA here in America!! How could I have forgotten that?

    by hopalong on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 05:47:12 PM PDT

  •  Not to mention (0+ / 0-)

    How McCain has treated the women in his own life, dumping his first wife for losing her looks in a car crash then replacing her with a "trophy" wife whom he affectionately referred to using the "C" word.

    I just can't come away with the conclusion that McCain has any respect for women in general, let alone understand their struggles.

    This ain't no party. This ain't no disco. This ain't no foolin' around!

    by Snud on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:02:33 PM PDT

  •  Freaking Awesome Diary. (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks for putting these numbers in perspective!

    Sh-shhh.....You hear that, you hear that? It's the 'winds of change'.....

    by Donkey Underpants on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:12:01 PM PDT

  •  Mahalo for directing me (0+ / 0-)

    to this article.  I like Rich's writing and yours!

  •  Turning to Congressional Races (0+ / 0-)

    I think we need to take a more aggressive stance on this. Our position should be that Obama's election is all but inevitable, so we are turning our attention to the congressional and other down-ticket races. While there is a danger that people might get complacent, I think the upside is that we can demoralize the Republicans so completely about McCain that they simply cease to vote (in any large numbers). This can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    At the same time, focusing on congressional races and things like making every vote count (mentioned in the diary) are exactly the things most likely to bring out a solid Democratic turnout everywhere and thus ensure Obama gets elected. Obama is right to focus on states the Republicans used to consider secure because not only does this put the Republicans on defensive for the presidential campaign, but it helps elect the maximum number of Democrats (and softer Republicans).

    We will need those people after Obama is elected. He will have to be "forced" to do the right things. He will have to be "forced" to pass a sensible national healthcare policy. He will have to be "forced" to wind down the war and rein in spending. He will have to be "forced" to put put more balance back into international trade.

    Equally, he'll have to be forced to address global warming with something other than "clean coal" and he will have to be forced to take liberal lines on social issues. And, there must be a groundswell of support every time he has to replace a justice on the SCOTUS, so that we get exactly what kind of judges we need.

    So, for many reasons, we should be focusing now on the down-ticket races, giving mainly to those races and providing more coverage to them. I'm happy to see that Daily Kos has consistently presented congressional races on the front page, even through the thick of the presidential primary battle. That's a good example.

    My personal prediction is that Obama is headed toward taking at least two-thirds of the electoral college votes. Maybe we should make that the talking point. Will McCain be able to beat the odds and get more than one-third of the EC votes? "Success" for him, given the current situation, is to do better than that. He's in danger of having the kind of electoral landslide that Dukakis wrapped up. In reverse.

  •  This quote... (0+ / 0-)

    But the notion that all female Clinton supporters became "angry white women" once their candidate lost — to the hysterical extreme where even lifelong Democrats would desert their own party en masse — is itself a sexist stereotype.

    ...is exactly the point.

     title=

    Isn't it a good feeling when you see the paper in the morning, it says 'Axe Slayer Kills 19' and you say, "They can't pin that one on me!" - Jean Shepherd

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