Proof positive of the fact there's something close to a Democratic lock in the Electoral College ... by my analysis, Obama starts out with a sizeable electoral vote lead, even more than the media's reporting. How's that? More below the fold.
I sauntered over to 270towin.com, and started out by allocating the states that Obama and McCain have locked up tight based on previous trends.
Obama: Hawaii (3), California (55), Washington (11), Illinois (21), Maine-AL (2), Maine-CD1 (1), New Hampshire (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (31), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), DC (3) Total: 171
McCain: Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Utah (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), Texas (34), South Carolina (8), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9) Total: 85
So in other words, Obama starts out with 171 votes locked up tight, while McCain has 85. An ominous sign right out of the gate--Arizona isn't in the bag for its favorite son. One can quibble with Delaware being firmly in the Obama camp--but in my view, New Castle County is solidly blue, and that will be more than enough to pull the whole state into the Obama camp.
Now let's look at the states that either candidate can likely count on except in a massive national landslide:
Obama: Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (17), Maine-CD2 (1), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15) Total: 73
McCain: Arizona (10), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11) Total: 66
Many of the "likely Obama" states--most notably Pennsylvania and New Jersey--would be safe for Obama if not for a large resevoir of moderate Republicans that could presumably be swayed by McCain. But in all cases, past history clearly favors Obama. It's also very telling that based on past polls, McCain has to actually expend a little effort to keep his home state, as well as seven others where a Repub theoretically has a strong advantage, in his column.
The grand total: Obama 257, McCain 151
Swing states outstanding: Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), Nevada (5), Montana (3), Iowa (7)
It's this simple for McCain. He must--MUST--win both Ohio and Florida in order to win the presidency. By contrast, there are dozens of combinations that allow Obama to win without Ohio or Florida--and at least one combination that would allow Obama to lose both and still win.
We already see the 50-state strategy bearing fruit, folks.