What a day for Georgia. After learning we have a place on the map, a new Insider Advantage poll drops the bomb we've been looking for; Georgia is now within the margin of error:
McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%
5% +/- MOE (408 likely voters)
[...]
“Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.
“Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, "The Bob Barr Effect" in 14 metro GA counties and increased AA turnout will get Obama close. Winning independents by 10 points would seal the deal. Looking at the crosstabs also shows more goodness (pdf warning).
First, what's interesting is the undecided vote by party:
Republican .7%
Democrat 10%
Independent 19%
I would say the R vote is solid (yikes). So, we are looking at a very small universe, but the potential upside in swing voters in this poll is exclusively among Democrats and Independents. That might indicate Obama still has some work to do pulling together Democrats, but that will come with time. Already winning the independents with room to grow is awesome news.
Lastly, the racial makeup of this poll is much closer to the Feb primary than the 2004 general.
From the tabs:
White 66.6%
Black 29.4%
Hispanic 2.6%
Other 1.2%
The poll is weighed almost exactly to the Feb. primary. For contrast, in 2004 the make up was 70/25/4/1. This is without any contemplation of higher AA percentages that Obama is working on with his massive registration effort in Chatham and metro Atlanta.
Looks pretty good folks. Get ready for a fun ride.