Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 18 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Brunswick Stew. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Virginia is arguably the best Democratic success story in the South since the years started beginning with a 2. We won two elections for Governor; elected Jim Webb to the US Senate (Virginia’s first Democratic Senator since Chuck Robb); and reclaimed the State Senate for Team Democrat in spite of a Republican gerrymander. And let’s hear it for Old Dominion!!!
Part of the reason for Virginia’s success is due to population increases in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County and surrounding areas), an area that has more in common with the Atlantic corridor than with the Confederate states, and which is derided as "the second northern invasion" by more traditional southerners. It’s solid blue, and playing an ever-increasing role in the political landscape.
Eastern/Tidewater Virginia is one of those interesting political patchworks you find in parts of the South, with blue islands in red regions and red islands in blue regions. Democrats do well in Richmond and Norfolk, and in certain rural places with large black populations; Republicans tend to take the suburbs, wealthy neighborhoods near the Atlantic, and other rural pockets with high white concentrations.
Farther west, Virginia becomes more mountainous, more poor, more elderly, and more socially conservative. Democratic influence has been declining steadily here since Jimmy Carter. On the other hand, political influence on the state has also been declining, along with the population. With each round of redistricting, the western mountain districts get larger and fewer, displaced by small, dense districts in NOVA.
And yet, all of Virginia is winnable by the right kind of Democrat. Mark Warner is popular everywhere, and there remain some of the most rabidly conservative voters you can find, who continue to vote Democrat because their grandfathers did. The Democrats they vote for are Zell Miller types, but they’re there in our big tent nonetheless.
I’ve linked not just to the VA statewide congressional map, but to closeups of the 3rd (which has been drawn to isolate almost every Democrat in the Southeast), and the 11th, which gives you a closeup of NOVA. The little squiggle north of the 11th is Jim Moran’s 8th.
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
BLOGS: I believe Raising Kaine may be the first and best of the single-state blogs, and one of the most effective, too. It had a definite effect on the Kaine win, the Webb win, and the State Senate flip, and it’s going to be a powerful weapon for Obama and Warner this year. When Virginia’s status as a purple, and then a blue state, is sealed, we will have RK to thank for it.
http://www.raisingkaine.com/
PRESIDENT: : THE BIG ONE for Virginia 2008. Presently called as a razor-thin Obama lead, or an exact tie among the electoral college wonks, this is the most important race in Virginia this year. There are some exciting downticket races, but none of them is more important than making Virginia go blue for President for the first time since 1964. We can have arguments about ways in which Obama can win without Ohio...or Florida...but the fact is, without Virginia, McCain has NO CHANCE of being elected President.
In addition, VA is THE best chance at Obama carrying a Southern state. Seems to me, if he wins without ANY of the South, things are much more likely to be unpleasant. The whole region digging in its heels and claiming that Obama doesn’t represent them; turmoil among Southern Representatives; maybe even violence. Getting at least one Southern state will be vital to building Obama’s cred as a real uniter, and this is the place to do it.
SENATORS, GOVERNORS AND OTHER STATEWIDE: The only one up in 2008 is the US Senate seat being vacated by Republican John Warner and sought by Democrat Mark Warner. It’s the safest flip on the national menu this year; the question is not whether the new Warner will win, but by how much, and whether his coattails will carry the state for Obama, or carry certain key Congressional districts.
STATE LEGISLATURE: Not up this year, but for the record, the leg (called "General Assembly" in Virginia) went Republican in 1999 (both houses), and has been gradually bluing back again since 2003.
The lower house has 53 Republicans, two independents (both of whom caucus with the Republicans), and 45 Democrats. That means six seats in a body of 100 need to flip to gain control of this body. We will have our last chance before redistricting in 2009.
The Senate has a razor thin Democratic majority of 21D, 19R. We had a decent year in 2007, the year we took the Senate back and gave Governor Kaine a legislative partner.
Since the Governor is also up in 2009, and Virginia Governors are limited to one term, that means that either or both houses, and the Governor’s mansion, could go either way, and either party has a chance to get the entire trifecta and run the table on redistricting.
But that’s a battle for next year.
UPDATE: I posted incorrectly at first about the State Senate, and doctormatt06 set me straight in the comments. The State Senate in Virginia is elected in one bloc every four years, and is NOT up for re-election again until 2011. That means that our one seat majority in that body is safe unless a Democrat dies or switches parties or the like. It will not fail due to an election before redistricting. That means that we will have at least one seat at the table, and have the potential to control it all.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Keith Hummel (D) v. Robert Wittman (Inc R). This Tidewater district had a special election in 2007 that got little attention and stayed Republican. It’s not on the map for now.
http://www.hummel2008.com/
District 2—Glenn Nye (D) v. Thelma Drake (Inc R) The NOVA districts are getting all the attention, but the 2nd is a swing district, and Drake seems a bit bonkers. This is a winnable 2nd tier contest.
http://www.glennnye.com/...
District 3—Bobby Scott (D)—Safe Dem. This was drawn to concentrate Democratic dark-skinned voters in the Richmond area. Scott has no Republican opponent at all.
District 4—Andrea Miller (D) v. Randolph Forbes (Inc. R). This was one of ten districts that went unchallenged last time around, and of the ten, this is the one that really should have had a contest. They gerrymandered it to be about 45D-55R, and large Obama/Warner turnout could do it for us.
http://andreamiller.us/
District 5—Tom Perriello (D) v. Virgil –Baad- Goode (Inc R). Of the mountain districts, this is the most interesting. Goode went from a Zell Miller Democrat (one of three or four who supported Clinton impeachment in 1998) to Indy to Republican Asshat over the course of a decade. His most recent claim to fame was to soil his britches in fear because newly elected Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN-4) is a devout muslim who swore the oath of office on a Koran. If Republicans can’t contain their shameful cowardice when confronted with Democrats, how can we expect them to stand tall on national security? Fortunately, Perriello, a popular attorney, is waging a decent fight which may free Mr. Goode to hide under his bed, quaking at shadows, full time.
http://www.perrielloforcongress.com/
District 6—Sam Rasoul (D) v. Robert Goodlatte (Inc R), an elitist in Appalachia who sips good lattes (rimshot). This district hugs the WV border, and also went uncontested in 2006. Rasoul isn’t on the map, but he’s doing the best he can with what resources he’s got. If you can’t send money to everybody, at least send Rasoul an email and thank him for stepping up to the plate so that someone else wouldn’t have to.
http://www.samrasoul.us/
District 7—Anita Hartke (D) v. Eric Cantor (Inc R). Central Virginia, most of the population of which is in Richmond suburbs. Cantor is another prominent Bush Lickspittle who, unlike most Republican politicians, has enough intelligence to open his mouth when he wants to eat, and is therefore considered an invincible genius by others in his party. If this is true, Culpepper County Democratic chair Anita Hartke hasn’t heard the news. If Hartke just manages to keep Cantor tied down in the 7th where he can’t harm our other challengers, we will have done what we need to do this time.
http://www.hartkeforcongress.com/
District 8—Jim Moran (D). Our kickass Representative from Fairfax County. They concentrated Democrats into his district to make the 11th more GOP. Moran is safe.
District 9—Rick Boucher (D). The western tail of the state. On paper, a red district where Democrats can expect trouble. In reality, Boucher is a holdover from pre-Newtist days when western Virginia was solidly Democratic, and is Representative for life. There is no Republican opponent. Safe Dem.
District 10—Judy Feder (D) v. Frank Wolf (R). This and the 11th are the most exciting Congressional races in Virginia. Feder is a former Congressional Aide and Dean of the Georgetown Public Policy Institute who has run for this district before and knows what she’s doing. The 10th, more than any other, has transformed over the decade due to the influx of Democrats from the north. Wolf has been in here since before I started keeping track, and maybe people are getting a little tired of him. This one is a solid second tier flip opportunity.
http://judyfeder.com/
District 11—Gerry Connolly (D) v. Keith Fimian (R) And this open seat is a TOP tier flip opportunity, one of the best on the map. It even leans blue, just a little. Republican Tom Davis held it by acting moderate, and Fimian is no Tom Davis. Watch for this one and CT-04 to be one of the first races of the night to be called as a Democratic pickup.
http://www.gerryconnolly.com/
REDISTRICTING VIRGINIA: It’s going to be iffy, but if we can hold the statehouse and the Senate, and get those six flipped seats in the lower house, we will have the trifecta in redistricting. We’ve seen how they managed to make the state 8-3 Republican despite its purpling status; I think it is possible to make the state 7-4 Democrat or better.
First off, NOVA. After 2010, Fairfax and the surrounding areas should control three out of eleven districts, including the 8th, 9th and a much more compact 10th. They can be made into three blue-leaning districts easily, especially by breaking up the 8th, which as it exists is ridiculously blue. Just make sure Moran and the incumbents of any of the other two that we’ve already won are in different districts, and we’ll be fine.
Then, the Southeast, with an equal triumvirate of two narrowly GOP-leaning districts adjoining one overwhelmingly Democratic district, created by and for Republicans: Districts 2, 3, and 4. It seems to me that all three districts would lean Democratic if we put all of Richmond in the 3rd; all of Norfolk/Newport News in the 2nd (where they were in the 1990s, when this district was held by a Democrat), and the spaces between in the 4th (where they were in the 1990s when this district was held by a Democrat). The Chesapeake peninsula should go back into the 1st district, and the 3rd and 4rth could extend fingers into what blue precincts remain in the 1st and 7th.
I’m not as certain that the 3rd would still be majority black under this scenario, but it is possible that it would be. For one thing, the 4th has a higher black population in its own right than usual. For another thing, Scott has been in place since 1992, and does not need an overwhelming cushion.
The 5th, 6th and 9th districts will all lose population and have to expand, probably covering the entire western 2/3 of the land mass. I foresee the 9th encroaching into the blue parts of Roanoke, keeping Boucher safe, while the new 6th extends northward into Frederick, Clark and rural Loudon counties, hugging the entire WV border and contributing to the bluing of the 10th. The 9th could alternatively swallow the bluest or reddest parts of Martinsville/Collinsville on the edge of the existing 5th, depending on how safe Boucher is, and whether we want to try and make the 5th more winnable or concentrate Republicans and make the 4th bluer.
The 1st and 7th will be the least elegant and should be drawn to concentrate Republicans. They are the two least winnable districts, and might as well be made 90% red as the price of making the 10th, 11th, 2nd, 4th and possibly 5th districts more winnable.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...