In an otherwise typically simplistic and uninformative column, David Brooks outlined exactly why the Republican Party as currently composed will do everything within its power to win this election.
"The trends are pretty clear: rising economic sectors tend to favor Democrats while declining economic sectors are more likely to favor Republicans. The Democratic Party (not just Obama) has huge fund-raising advantages among people who work in electronics, communications, law and the catchall category of finance, insurance and real estate. Republicans have the advantage in agribusiness, oil and gas and transportation. Which set of sectors do you think are going to grow most quickly in this century’s service economy?"
This analysis of the "trends" can easily be applied to this election. By nominating Obama, Democrats have ensured that they are going to be strongest amongst those groups expanding in numbers, younger voters, well educated voters, voters who are tech savy, and based on polls so far Hispanic voters as well. In short, an advertising agency would consider the Obama voters the "money demographic," that which they are trying to reach while only those trying to sell centrum silver, would be aiming their message at McCain's voters. No offense older Kossacks, but their is no question which group admen spend more to reach.
What does this situation mean? It means that 2008 represents not a year where "factors" (utterly incompetent economic and political leadership, complete contempt for the history and traditons of the United States, and a total lack of imagination to name a few) have conspired against the current GOP to reduce their chances of success in November below the norm. Au contraire, the GOP as now constituted has no more chance of being competitive than a gas guzzling SUV in a world of increasingly high oil prices. Therefore, 2008 likely represents the last legitimate opportunity the GOP as currently constituted has of winning a national election.
As a result, the GOP literally has nothing to lose in adopting any tactics that might possibly lead to a surpise victory in November because they have no prospects have winning future elections so actions that might further degrade the Republican Party in future elections but might possibly win this one would rationally be worth employing.
I am not capable of determining exactly what tactics will be employed against Obama or how he should respond against what will be an increasingly desperate opposing candidate and party. All I am saying is that the current Republican leaders surely know their party has no future other than to maintain power for another four years. To what ends they might use this power god only knows.