This diary is going to be a little counter intuitive. Obama doesn't have a good chance to win Utah or Wyoming. Texas is a reach unless this election reaches blowout proportions. So why am I argueing that turn out in these states will make any difference?
- THE KEY TO CHANGING DIRECTION IN AMERICA IS GETTING A MANDATE.
- THE KEY TO GETTING A MANDATE IS RECEIVING A LARGE SHARE OF THE POPULAR VOTE.
I have been parsing the best current projections for the 2008 general election. Looking at the data at <span style="color:DarkRed">Poblano</span>'s FiveThirtyEight I have noticed good news and bad. The good news is that based on Poblano's poll data crunching, Sen. Obama currently has a 67.4% chance to win the 2008 presidential election. Sen. Obama is currently leading in state polls with 312 electoral votes to Sen. McCain's 226. Great so what is the problem?
Poblano projects Sen. Obama will capture 49.9% of the vote. Since LBJ the largest popular victory margin by a democrat is Jimmy Carter 50.1% victory in 1976. No democrat has crested 50.0% sincer then. (BTW Bill Clinton's biggest margin was 49.24% in 1996)).
My fear is that the traditional corporate media will enjoy Obama's victory as a black man (America is no longer a racist country) but will loath his victory as a progressive (we don't want the USA be run by dirty f'ing hippies). No matter what his electoral college victory margin is any time President Obama pushes in a progressive direction they will cite his lack of a popular vote mandate.
You might as well not waste your breath with any "George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000" or "he only got 50.7% in 2004 by using voter suppression". Anyone saying this will be treated as a "radical", "far left" , or ignored. The media doesn't treat both sides eavinly or fairly.
<span style="color:DarkRed">SO WHAT CAN YOU DO? </span>
- The Obama campaign and outside groups are running a great campaign to register black voters. Even if he loses states like MS, AL, an LA he should pick up greater numbers then what <span style="color:DarkRed">Poblano</span>'s is currenly projecting. Encourage your black friends and family to vote, overcome the fear.
- Univision and a number of Latino/a organizations are running a MASSIVE voter registration drive. Hopefully this will translate into Hispanics showing up. Encourage every Latino you know to vote. Latino's lag behind almost every other major group in electoral turn out.
- The most overlooked part and the reason for this diary. Get your progressive friends in <span style="color:DarkRed">DEEP RED</span> states to turn out. Many democrats in places like Utah don't turn out because they feel their votes are wasted. If they all turn out maybe it only cut's into McCain lead by 2-3% but it will enlarge Obama's popular vote.
The greatest thing I have seen in the Obama campaign is the true level of grassroots organizing that goes on. In the spring of 2007 back when Obama was barely registering in the polls I got involved. I wanted to organize the small number of latin and black businesses in southern NH. When I went to the campaign they said great idea. They got two staff members (one who spoke spanish) gave me some signs and bumper stickers and said go! No polls, no red tape, just run with it. For 2 hours of work we netted 10 volunteers!
My message to folks in red states, especially rural red states is just take the iniative. Call up a campaign office or go online at Barack Obama. Set up a house party. Let folks know that if they want a progressive America democratic turn out in deep red states will make the difference. THEIR VOTES ARE NOT WASTED. This is the grassroots in action.
YES WE CAN!