"Certainly, [US Representative Todd Akin, R-MO] seems as safe as any Republican can be in an otherwise bleak atmosphere for the GOP," writes Deirdre Shesgreen in today's St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "The 2nd Congressional District includes the high-income, reliably Republican suburbs .... Akin won the seat in 2000, squeaking through a five-way GOP primary by 56 votes and then winning easily in the general election. He has coasted to re-election ever since."
Appearances can be deceiving. Todd Akin's seat isn't nearly as "safe" at it looks.
Over the last three elections, Akin's poll performance has declined from 67.1% to 61.3% ... versus Democratic opponents who each spent less than the $5,000 FEC reporting threshold, and with third party numbers topping out at 2.1%.
Todd Akin has been losing ground versus moneyless Democrats and "paper" third party candidates for six years. So, what does 2008 look like?
As of the end of the first quarter of 2008, Democratic primary candidate Byron DeLear reported href="16,000 cash on hand (most of it from his own pocket); Democrat David L. Pentland reported $65,000 on hand, most of it raised from contributors.
The Democratic "base" in the suburban St. Louis metro area is in a growth pattern, probably pushing 40%; the GOP "base" is in decline and almost certainly no longer constitutes a majority in the district; and nationwide polling says that non-"base" voters are looking hard at third party alternatives.
I've been brutally honest with my supporters, and here's my honest opinion:
No, Missouri's 2nd District won't elect a Libertarian to Congress this year. Nor will any other US House District in the nation do so.
However, a strong Libertarian campaign in my district can make a difference.
[Update: Because Daily Kos is not a stupid or evil site, I'm leaving the portion of this blog entry above posted. Because Daily Kos has a stupid and evil policy regarding "promotion of non-Democratic candidates," I'm removing the rest, which alludes to my own congressional candidacy - TLK]