Happy 4th of July, everyone. I took some time to rank some of the main VP contenders in order of their likelihood of being chosen. I tried not to use my personal preferences, but they may have influenced me a little bit. I'm sure there's a lot here that people can quibble with, particularly the ordering and perhaps a few names I left out. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on whom I am undervaluing and whom I should have included.
For Dems, I see the top 5 as: Biden, Bayh, Sebelius, Strickland, & Reed, but I think there's a big gap between #2 and #3. For the Republicans, it's a little tougher since I don't follow them as closely, but I have Thune, Sanford, Pawlenty, Romney, Hutchison.
More commentary after the jump:
- Sen. Joe Biden (DE). Foreign policy gravitas; good debater; great personal story; working class Catholic appeal. He can put his foot in his mouth, but the bigger question is: does Obama like him? It looks like he does.
- Sen. Evan Bayh (IN). Not going to light the world on fire, but Bayh could probably tilt Indiana blue and he matches Obama on the youth/vitality trait, providing a nice counterpoint to McCain. Plus, a lot of experience, and the fact that he was a prominent Hillary supporter helps.
- Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS). Obama likes her and she has a good profile for appealing to independents and moderate Republicans. The real question is whether two history-making candidacies is one too many for the ticket.
- Gov. Ted Strickland (OH). Former minister and congressman. Popular in Ohio. Might be number 1 on the list if he hadn't ruled himself out. Was he being serious?
- Sen. Jack Reed (RI). Good military and foreign policy credentials. Popular in the Senate.
- Gen. Anthony Zinni (PA). Haven't heard his name in a while, but looks great on paper. How would he campaign? And would it look like Obama is over-compensating?
- Former Sen. John Edwards (NC). At first glance, it doesn't make much sense. But seeing the two of them together, it seems to work. Still could use a little more gravitas.
- Former Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ). Seems like quite the longshot, but he is the only one with the unique combination of Washington experience and outsider, independent appeal. Fully vetted and ready to be president. The media, though, would emphasize the combo of 2 "wine-track" candidates.
- Former Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO). If only he hadn't become a lobbyist, he would be in the top 3.
- Gov. Tim Kaine (VA). Obama really likes him, but Obama probably needs someone who has served more than 3 years as governor.
- Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ). It would be daring for Obama to make a play for AZ with the state's most popular politician, but it seems more likely that she will get a Supreme Court or AG appointment.
Other Names that are Mentioned
- Former Sen. Sam Nunn (GA).
- Sen. Jim Webb (VA).
- Gov. Bill Richardson (NM).
- Mayor Mike Bloomberg (NY).
- Gov. Ed Rendell (PA).
- Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE).
- Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY).
- Former VP Al Gore (TN).
- Gov. Brian Schweitzer (MT).
I have more complete commentary (especially on the bottom 9) and my full Republican rankings on my blog: http://nobodyinp.blogspot.com/