Nevada is a true (South-)Western swing state: a mixture of hard-righties, surburban indies and liberals, legalize-my-pot and gun-loving libertarians, cohesive unions and a strongly growing latino population.
Historically, Nevada's economy is likely to be exceptionally hard hit by downturns in the nationwide economy. By at least one measure, NV is doing worse than the US as a whole. And how might this effect the elections in November?
Charts and more below the fold...
UPDATE: Also now at My Silver State
In 2006, the Senate race between Carter and Ensign did not go so well. Despite early interest from progressives, online advocacy and money both fizzled even though this could have been a very interesting race.
The economy was still doing relatively well. Or at least well enough that it was not acceptable conservation to talk about inflationary pressures. Also, not as many people were flat-out outraged about (gas and food) prices, and the stock market wouldn't peak until Oct 2007.
Speaking of stock market, Wynn Casinos (one of the leviathans of casino businesses) was actually one of the better stocks at the time. More people could still afford to go to Vegas in 2006 and 2007.
Price per share for Wynn Casinos (volume underneath)
Now? Not so much.
Wynn's stock made a final base in its run up at the start of 2007. From the last week of June through October 1st, Wynn did not have a single week where the price closed down from the week before. That's a strong bull.
But ever since the climax run, the stock's fallen and continued to bleed institutional (hedge funds and so on) support, as you can tell by the volume chart on the bottom). This morning the price is at 80 and change, half of what it was when it peaked, not to mention below the bottom of the last basing pattern one summer ago.
It's not just Wynn that's struggling. Crown Ltd. just scrapped a $5 billion development plan for a Las Vegas hotel.
Tourism
Last weekend, The Independent ran an excellent article detailing Vegas' downturn at every corner.
Hotels, vigilantly protecting Vegas' party-city image, are not advertising the fact that they are slashing room rates and at 80% or below room occupancy, versus their normal 90-95% standard. The room rates may be their lowest in 6 or 7 years, according to the Los Angeles Times. (If you're headed out to Sin City, keep pressing for their best deals--they're not going to let everyone know).
When you consider how fundamentally unsustainable these massive hotels are, the kind of extreme energy usage and the cleaning, maintenance, landscaping and security staff they require, you can see why that severely eats away at profit.
Entertainers, family-oriented to adult, are all noticing smaller crowds and fewer clientele.
No tourist resort can afford to lose its buzz. Yet the slump now runs so deep it's starting to hurt even the town's Elvis impersonators, wedding chapels, and sex industry. When money's tight, the prospect of stuffing another $20 bill into a lap-dancer's gyrating stocking-top somehow doesn't seem quite so enticing.
"This year already we've seen the Minx closing, the Mensa club closing, and the Crazy Horse closing," says Dolores Eliades, owner of the OG, the second biggest "adult cabaret" venue in the world. "By another 12 months from now, I expect another two or three major venues will have gone.
(Independent, again)
Now that Asia (with notorious thousands of high-rolling casino-going tourists) has Macau as a pinnacle for gambling tourism right on par with Vegas--not to mention extremely high standards of cleanliness and service, there's less incentive for countless foreigners to visit Nevada. (Thanks, in no small part, to Wynn casinos. Yet another concrete example of the greedy and ambitious in the present day economic bubble killing their own golden geese).
Resources
Gold mining is continuing to "do well" (a strong sector of Nevada's economy, silver was basically Nevada's first real industry) with a strong presence by Barrick (operating mainly near Elko) and their massive find at the South Arturo mine and competitor Newmont. Of course, mining is not an especially urban industry, (where most people are concentrated) nor will it keep Nevada's economy going on its own.
Unemployment
Here are two charts from Nevada Workforce using the Nevada Dept. of Unemployment's information. The first is State vs. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment.
This second chart is Nevada's unemployment compared to the nation as a whole:
Notice how even when unemployment (especially Carson City) falls back from its highs to the (invisible) trendline, the trendline is still significantly higher than before the climax runup.
From the independent article we should also note:
"The current rate of overall unemployment in this state is 6.2 per cent, the highest since May 1994," said Jered McDonald, an economist with the Nevada Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department. "Las Vegas seems to be getting the worst of it. Other parts [of the state] aren't so bad; in fact the gold-mining industry is booming, so the drop in employment in big metropolitan areas is actually bigger than that figure suggests.
The website also has spreadsheets breaking down unemployment by county and further by city.
Voting
Senator Obama will not win Nevada's Electoral Votes with especial ease compared to Colorado or New Mexico, but it would be well worth the effort due to the economic factors which favor Dems.
Nevada only has three Congressional Districts, the 1st being a Lean-Dem dot at Las Vegas, the 2nd heavily Republican, (60% or more) and the 3rd being a swing district.
A large number of latino voters will need Spanish-language outreach and boots on the ground to make sure they a) turn out to vote and b) have accurate information on how/where to vote. Evidently considering the polling the majority won't vote for McCain, nor will the unions. Obama should spend a week talking about the economy and freedom from intrusion and ending the multi-billion budget crisis (aka The Iraq War) in Nevada, gas prices et al.
Or he could do a three day tour. One for Vegas and Henderson, (the bedroom community of Las Vegas), one for Reno, and one for voters in tough areas like Elko amd Carson City, and from there on into reddest Nevada. Remember, we don't know that McCain will actually try in every battleground. Voters may start noticing McCain's lack of effort--which may have had a lot to do with our own failures in red areas in the past.
Not only would the electoral map's visual sense of defeat for Bushism look that much stronger with a big, blue Nevada but it will greatly help the 50 state strategy by pushing the battleground out into a truly mixed, diverse and varying state.
People in Nevada need economic relief. We need to get out there and tell them it's on the way!