The Florida Republican Party (and some Democrats like Debbie Wasserman Schultz) are kept afloat by the corrupt south-Florida Cuban-American mafia. Now, their three south-Florida reps are facing the challenges of their lives, and at least two are already in serious trouble.
Bendixen & Associates. 6/6-22. MoE 5% in each district. (No trend lines)
FL-25
Diaz-Balart (R) 44
Garcia (D) 39
FL-21
Diaz-Balart (R) 41
Martinez (D) 37
FL-18
Ros-Lehtinen (R) 58
Taddeo (D) 31
Joe Garcia, up against Mario Diaz-Balart, is an Orange to Blue candidate. Martinez is going up against Lincoln Diaz-Balart. These numbers are nothing short of stunning. I've thought these races were quite competitive for some time, but I wouldn't have expected the Diaz-Balart brothers to be in this much trouble. And given that both Garcia and Martinez are raising great money, we have the makings of a series of dramatic upsets in South Florida this year.
Annette Taddeo in FL-18 still lags, both in money and in this poll, but if she can keep it close, hers is one of those districts (like NH-01 and Carol Shea-Porter in 2006) that can get swept in by the force of larger trends (in this case, a strong Latino turnout for Obama and the entry of a large percentage of new voters, along with the collapse of the GOP brand). But she's got a ways to go before we can say she's "keeping it close".
But that is a lone bright spot for Florida Republicans (and their hard-right Cuban exile allies), who should otherwise be on "panic" mode given the Martinez and Garcia numbers.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
Raul Martinez for Congress
Joe Garcia for Congress
Annette Taddeo for Congress