The Obama campaign has been pretty successful at being leak-free on the running mate front. Only two or three people outside of the candidate have a clue as to his thinking, and they aren't talking. That doesn't mean people like me can't have a little fun, and make idle speculation about the person who Obama will choose to run for Vice President. Here are the top twelve, as I see them:
- Virginia Governor Tim Kaine--lots of things point to him; from Obama's stance on abortion to the energy policy to taxes, the winds are pointing in the direction of the Virginia Governor's mansion. Kaine is a Catholic with a middle of the road position on abortion, which keeps him on good terms with the Church. That would help Obama out in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan--where a Democrat needs to win Catholics in order to win the state's electoral votes. However, Kaine's bill to improve funding for transportation projects in Virginia failed in a special session of the Virginia General Assembly, and his popular within the Old Dominion State is declining. I believe he was the early front runner, but is fading fast down the stretch.
- Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer. He calls anybody who mentions his prospects of being Vice President a "nutjob." But he also hasn't said he'd say no. The people who usually want it the most don't say anything about it. The fact Obama is ahead by 5 in Montana, but only 3 in Colorado and that he needs to win a couple western states helps. Schweitzer would probably help in North Dakota too. Schweitzer pro-gun stance would also be popular in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. The problem: Schweitzer is up for re-election this year, and as Joe Lieberman proved, running for two offices at once doesn't help the ticket.
- Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. If the Hillary people (see Susie Tompkins-Buell) weren't trying to extort the Vice Presidency from Obama, she'd be the front runner. But to pick her is to wave a giant middle finger at the Clinton loyalists. It'd probably help with women, but it wouldn't be well received in the media, which is all too eager to jot down the quotes of "jilted" Clinton supporters like Tompkins-Buell. That makes Sebelius less likely in my opinion.
- New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. He's always mentioned, but never mentioned at the top of these lists. That's usually a good place to be. He has impeccable experience, and covers all the resume gaps Obama's handlers would want to fill. The problem: the candidate himself is wary about picking an experienced person and has said so on the record.
- Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. He'd make more sense but for the fact he'd cause another mini-revolt on the left. He's a moderate Senator from a moderate state. He was a successful Governor. If he can bring Indiana with him, it's worth putting up with the mini-revolt from the left. Given Obama's strong performance in Indiana to date, it's possible Bayh could bring Indiana with him.
- Pennsylvania Bob Casey. His name has been floated about. On the plus side, he'd lock down Pennsylvania and Michigan because of the Catholic and union votes (both of which he's closely tied to) and aide in Ohio. He seems to get along with Obama, which is an important consideration. Casey is also experienced in fighting corruption, which he did effectively as the Auditor General of Pennsylvania. But the fact that Casey is pro-life would cause trouble with groups (NOW, Planned Parenthood, etc.) which strongly supported Senator Clinton in the primaries. This is my personal favorite choice. I doubt Barack Obama will agree with me on this.
- Former Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt. A Midwesterner. Gephardt is somebody from the House, which would please Speaker Pelois. Gephardt would help in Missouri. He was completely vetted by the Kerry people four years ago. He was a Clinton supporter, but didn't take a prominent role in her campaign.This would be a way for Obama to reach out to Clinton's supporters without incurring a backlash from the left. Gephardt is a real dark horse candidate.
- Texas Congressman Chet Edwards. This would be a very unpopular pick on the left, but Representative Edwards has earned the endorsement of the Speaker of the House. Anybody who gets the Speakers endorsement lands in the top 10.
- Former South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle. Daschle has long been a very key Obama supporter. Obama would not have won the primary without his support. Yet his wife's lobbying activities diminish Daschle's chances in my mind. The McCain campaign would have a field day being holier than thou on lobbying were Daschle to be picket. If Obama wins, I'm sure Daschle will be a Secretary of Something.
- Clarie McCaskill. The junior Senator from Missouri is probably the most talented person on this list. She is certainly the most talented woman to be mentioned. She was an early, and strong, supporter of Barack Obama. She's unflappable when it comes to staying on message (a very important consideration for a Vice Presidential candidate). She's experienced on budgetary issues, as she served as the Treasurer of the State of Missouri; she's also been a state legislator from the Kansas City area, and a District Attorney. That's all good news as those issues are salient in this campaign and Missouri is an important swing state. There are two negatives for Senator McCaskill though: first, she's only been in the Senate for 18 months, and those around Senator Obama are likely to be weary about another fresh face on the ticket. (I personally take the opposite view, as I think people are tired of the same old Washington losers, and two fresh faces could be very effective running against a person who has been in Washington for nearly 30 years). McCaskill also would be poorly received by the Hillary Clinton faction of the Democratic Party. While I believe that it'd show that people like Susie Tompkins-Buell are more concerned about deals they struck with the Clintons, and titles they want, than they are with gender, the negative reaction from Clinton-loyalists is something the Obama campaign could do without. That's why I suspect a woman will not be Obama's running mate.
- New York Senator Hillary Clinton. It's unlikely, but the party is still fractured. The Obama campaign pretty arrogantly told me "we'll have 5 weeks to unify the party, that's plenty of time," right before the WV primary. They're finding out just how wrong they were now. If it's still not unified in a couple weeks, Obama's choice could be Hillary Clinton.
- Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (Republican). Hagel is an anti-war Senator, and a former strong supporter of John McCain. McCain and Hagel had a falling out over the Iraq War. A great pick in theory, but the reality is it'd piss off all the Democrats who think they should be Vice President, and therefore it'd cause disunity and not help Obama. I believe this makes Hagel’s selection very doubtful; it’s more a creation of the media than anything else. That said, I'm sure Hagel would be a Secretary of Something in an Obama administration.
My wild guess on who Obama ultimately picks: Schweitzer. It makes too much sense...The reality: Obama will probably pick someone who is not on this list. Number 13--Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal...