Rasmussen just released a new poll of the Alaska Senate race. In it, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Senator Ted Stevens (R) 52%-44% (50%-41% without leaners).
Details after the jump.
A month ago, Stevens led Begich by two points in the Rasmussen poll. Ordinarily, I'd be suspicious of such a huge shift in such a short amount of time, but there have been two significant developments since the last poll. First, Begich has started advertising, and his ads are quite good. Second, State Senator John Cowdery (R-Anchorage) was indicted on corruption charges. Not only does this bring the corruption of the Alaska Republican party back to the forefront of voters' minds, but guess whose name was all over the charging documents?
Former State Senator Ben Stevens - Ted Stevens' son. Ted himself has already been implicated in a scandal involving an oil company paying for renovations of his house, so it seems the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
So I'm inclined to believe this poll. The picture for Begich may not be quite as good as it paints, but I believe he's ahead of Stevens at this point in time.
Notable statistics from the Rasmussen poll:
Begich gets the support of 20% of Alaska Republicans. And he holds a two-to-one advantage among unaffiliated voters, which is very significant because unaffiliated voters make up about 53% of the Alaska electorate. If Begich can hold on to such a huge advantage with them, he will win.
63% of Alaska voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Mark Begich. Only 34% have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, Stevens' numbers are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable. That's a huge unfavorable rating for a Republican incumbent in a red state, and there's virtually no one who's not sure.
With numbers like these, you can expect the negative attacks on Begich to start soon. So why not donate a few bucks to help fight them off? Begich will be a great addition to the Senate, and there's hardly a worthier goal this season than getting rid of Stevens.
Race tracker Wiki: AK-SEN