I count myself as a fiercely loyal Kossack. Daily Kos is quite often the first site I go to during the day, even before I look at my email (which Excite is doing its best to deny me). I've been an activist Democrat for a long time, and I revel in the company of the other devoted, activist Democrats on this site. I gotta love you guys! But lately I've been seeing way too much bravado and bragging for my tastes. Particularly annoying are such comments as:
"McCain? He won't even do as well as Dole."
"McCain is toast."
"In the current conditions, a McCain victory is extremely unlikely."
"With the economy the way it is, McCain is finished."
This. Has. To. Stop. Jump and see why.
Looking at the situation in the country and the world, yes, it would seem that the odds are stacked heavily against McCain. The Republican "brand" is in low repute, and the Republicans will definitely lose seats in the Congress. And yet, McCain is, to use a sports metaphor, "hanging around". You would think we'd be blowing this guy out of the water by now--but we're not. And if you think he just can't win, you have a lot to learn about America.
Some of you may not be following the savage, utterly brutal campaign against Obama being waged on the Internet, the one that caused Obama's people to start the Stop the Smears site. It is simply unbelievable in its scope and insanity. There are even a number of YouTube videos asserting that Obama is the AntiChrist. Absurd? Sure. But this the same country where more than 40% of the population expects the Apocalypse in their lifetimes. The "Obama is a Muslim" meme is also highly popular with this segment of the population. Evangelicals may not like McCain, but I predict that when the crunch comes, they'll vote for him in huge numbers. And that alone may outweigh any advantage we have among African-American voters in the Carolinas, Georgia, or Mississippi, states some of my more enthusiastic brothers and sisters think might be in play. And there's more to my cold-blooded assessment--a lot more.
A. The idea that we're going to bury the Republicans financially is nonsense, and a lot of Kossacks now know it. McCain is already cheating in campaign finance through illegal coordination, which he will never called on. McCain and the GOP (and its 527s) will throw $400,000,000 at Obama. It's already hurting us badly in Ohio (and yes I know Rasmussen may be an outlier, but it might not be completely) and we need to get that through our heads. We'll achieve parity with McCain and not much more.
B. Despite McCain's whining, you and I both know that his friends in the Washington-based media will continue to cover for him, make excuses for him, ignore his constant gaffes, and spout GOP talking points. You know that. Despite the good coverage Obama's trip is getting, this fundamental dynamic has not changed. And right-wing talk radio is pouring the ugliest, most venomous anti-Obama swill into the national bloodstream 24/7, aided nonstop by Fox "News" and The Wall Street Journal editorial page. The major corporate media have an enormous financial interest in seeing Obama defeated.
C. As was pointed out earlier today, millions of Americans have been persuaded by 40 years of lying right-wing propaganda and wedge politics to vote against their own interests. The fact that McCain is keeping it close shows this clearly. How can a man who will perpetuate ALL of the major policies of the most unpopular president in American history be virtually tied with us? It's because millions of Americans view the government as the enemy, even when they have benefited from it. And as to the elephant in the room...
D. Racial and ethnic relations are America's national sin. Many political experts, including conservative Larry Sabato, see a "comfortable" Obama win, based on a host of factors which have been predictive in the past. But they're not factoring in the one variable that has never cropped before--an African-American candidate. West Virginia should be a slam dunk for us, but it's not. Bush appointed a mining industry crony to run the Bureau of Mines. WV's beautiful landscape is being raped by mountain-top removal methods. WV continues to be beaten down by heavy poverty and economic distress. And yet, we have virtually no chance there, because many, many, good Democrats will not--will NOT--vote for a black man. Period. This fierce antipathy toward a black candidate goes for many voters in southeastern Ohio and central Pennsylvania as well. It goes for a lot of people in Arkansas and central Indiana. It goes for many voters in western Virginia and North Carolina. It goes for large numbers in eastern and northern Texas. And it's buried in suburbs all over the nation. Obama will win record high percentages of AA voters in the Deep South, but I predict he won't even do as well as John Kerry among white southern voters. We might have a shot in Virginia in the South. That's about it. And if we lose Ohio and Missouri again, I'm not sure where we find the votes to win. It is also conceivable that we'll lose Michigan as well, despite that state's grim economy. There is a hard lesson here: for many Americans, even in 2008, race trumps EVERYTHING. Millions of people just can't bring themselves to vote for a black man with a "foreign-sounding" name. They can't. Racism, xenophobia, and cultural provincialism run deep in this country, and while that may be changing, it's still a major factor.
Well, what about the debates? Obama will destroy McCain right? Kerry pounded Bush all over the ring in the debates in 2004 (except maybe the third one). It made things closer, but that was it. What about the youth vote? I've been hearing about that since my first time voting (in 1972). I've yet to see it come through in a big way. Latinos? Better for us than in 2004, but getting Latino voters registered in places like south Texas has proven difficult in the past. Yes, they may help us in Colorado and New Mexico, but will it be enough if we lose Michigan (and God forbid, Pennsylvania)? It remains to be seen.
I think a great many Kossacks are aware that complacency is our enemy, and they are already working and giving their hearts out. Others seem to think we've got this thing sewed up. We don't. In 2000 and 2004 the Republicans kept it close enough to steal. They just might be able to do it again this year. In a rational world, Obama would win by about the same margin LBJ did in 1964. And this year conditions for the Republicans are just as grim. Yes, in a rational world Obama would win big.
But as you have noticed, we don't live in a rational world.
Keep working. Keep giving. Keep registering. And don't count on anything until we've won it all.