The constant theme last night in the coverage of the Berlin speech that Obama delivered was the refrain: "We'll see what the voters think".... GREAT News, VOTERS LOVED IT!
Over half of Americans (55%) rate Barack Obama’s historic speech in Berlin yesterday good or excellent, and the Democratic presidential candidate is experiencing a modest bounce over John McCain nationally in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Even nearly a third of Republicans (32%) give the speech good or excellent marks, but Democrats are far more enthusiastic, with 75% feeling that way. However, 39% of Republicans rate the speech Poor versus only five percent (5%) of Democrats. Forty-seven percent (47%) of unaffiliated voters say the speech was good or excellent, while 16% characterize it as Poor.
Suck on that David Brooks!!! This is EXACTLY what McCain feared.... Let the new Meme be born...
OBAMA HAS CROSSED THE C-N-C THRESHOLD
The Obama campaign believed if they cleared the Commander in Chief threshold, then they'd have a clear path to victory. Initial reaction is KEY and the good will from yesterday should hopefully continue to build.
More importantly, the Speech had an almost overnight saturation
In a new Rassmussen Reports national survey, 26% grade the speech, delivered before an enthusiastic crowd of more than 200,000, as Excellent. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say it was good. Nearly as many (23%) feel it was only Fair, and 18% rate it as Poor. These results are based upon the 50% of voters who had heard or seen coverage of the speech last night.
Exactly half (50%) acknowledge having read, seen or heard news about the Berlin speech, while 67% have followed at least somewhat news reports of Obama’s overseas trip that began nearly a week ago and has included stops in Afghanistan and Iraq. He now moves on to Paris and London before coming home. The Berlin speech is the only major address Obama planned to deliver on the trip.
Obama has even managed to win over the Bush-Friendly Sarkozy
"Obama? He's my pal," the president told Le Figaro. "Unlike my diplomatic advisers, I never believed in Hillary Clinton's chances. I always said that Obama would be nominated."
Sarkozy added that an Obama victory "would validate" his strategy of reconcilation with the United States. His embrace of the United States has made him American conservatives' favorite Continental politician, but he doesn't seem to be reciprocating.
And the Media Coverage of Obama's overseas trip has finally broken into polling.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).
This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points. The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.
Rasmussen just called it a BOUNCE; likely because only Rasmussen can see the individual day to day numbers. To go from tied to a 5 point lead in 2 days of polling indicates that Obama's numbers last night were off the chart. This all the while the RNC and FOX News try to set forth a Meme that the trip has not been working. Much of the media reporting on "bad polling" surrounds the Quinnipiac polling released yesterday, most stunningly showing McCain retaking a lead in Colorado. HOWEVER, no one seemed to note that the poll was taken July 14-22nd; well before anything other than a few military photos of Obama from Iraq hit the press.
A new Colorado poll released today from previously unheard of Frederick Polls shows Obama holding on to a 4 point lead over McCain.
The Keith Frederick poll of 700 Colorado voters release Thursday afternoon showed Obama with 45 percent and McCain with 41 percent. Fourteen percent were undecided.
Colorado still seems fertile ground for Obama and the Q-Poll may ultimately be an outlier, especially considering the intial reception of the Speech/Tour with upcoming convention.
For a great read on the actual motives behind the trip and what it's effect may create in the polls, check out Nate as always.
UPDATE: Gallup is just out with their tracking
Obama: 47% (45%)
McCain: 41% (43%)
The write up offered by Gallup gives all sorts of scenarios in the face of a solid night of polling Thursday, meanwhile Rasmussen finds strong evidence that the speech/trip are having an impact, or in the least, being well received. A one day move of 4% is pretty heady stuff, confirming Rasmussen. I honestly can't think of another time this year that BOTH trackers moved in the same direction by the same amount overnight.
The question now becomes: Will Obama crack 50% next week?? These overnights must be pushing that 50% mark, never yet broken in either tracking. If he does, look for a McCain Veep on Aisle 5, right beside the Cheese Wiz and Dole Pineapples...
Update II: Michael Crowley, who has been looking for a bounce all week, takes note.
Obama now up five in Rasmussen and six in Gallup....
(I don't intend to blog about polls every day until November but this does seem an especially interesting/important moment....)